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The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (6/24)

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Matt Kupferle

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Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a peek.

Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays

Orioles (+158), Blue Jays (-188)
Total: 10.5 runs
Dean Kremer (R) vs. Anthony Kay (L)

You know what’s kind of insane? The Blue Jays already possess arguably the deepest lineup in all of baseball. And then you just casually drop in George Springer into the fifth spot in your lineup to smash? Wowza. This is going to make the AL East a lot of fun. What won’t be fun is the evening Dean Kremer is likely to have — he’s allowed 2.37 home runs per nine (HR/9) and is gonna get tortured.

Best bets: This has to be an OVER. Anthony Kay isn’t great, either. 

Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers

Astros (-220), Tigers (+184)
Total: 10.0 runs
Luis García (R) vs. José Ureña (R)

It has been a rough recent stretch of starts for José Ureña, and I got news for ya — Thursday is going to be no easier. The Astros are absolutely blitzing opposing pitching, as evidenced by their shellacking of the Baltimore Orioles in a 13-0 whitewash Wednesday. While Ureña limits home runs (0.96 HR/9), his issue is a 13.9% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate — not enough whiffs, and a lot of free passes.

Best bets: This is lining up to be another blood bath for the Astros — slam them in totals, props and moneylines. 

Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins

Nationals (-118), Marlins (+100)
Total: 8.5 runs
Joe Ross (R) vs. Cody Poteet (R)

The turnaround that Joe Ross has engineered has been dramatic — his four-seam fastball was absolutely hammered in his first four starts, logging a .437 wOBA with a 30% usage rate. Now, he’s flipped that fastball for more sliders, and no one touches that pitch — the slider has limited opposing hitters to a .270 wOBA this year. And with a struggling Marlins offense that clocks in bottom-five in team wOBA and strikeout rate, this could be a low scoring game.

Best bets: The UNDER — the Marlins stink offensively, and Ross has been great lately. 

Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays

Red Sox (+110), Rays (-130)
Total: 9.0 runs
Nick Pivetta (R) vs. Michael Wacha (R)

The Nick Pivetta story was a fun one, but the wheels are falling off. The season-long metrics look decent, but the numbers in the last month are downright ugly — a 5.74 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, and an ugly 1-3 record. He is still recording plenty of strikeouts (36 over 26.1 innings), but he will be tested. But to be fair, Wacha hasn’t been great, either — if the Rays can get some help at the back end of the division, they could win this thing.

Best bets: A slight lean to the OVER — the Trop stinks to hit in, but so do these arms. 

Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins

Indians (+160), Twins (-190)
Total: 9.5 runs
J.C. Mejía (R) vs. José Berríos (R)

People like to bury José Berríos for being consistent, but isn’t that the name of the game? After a pretty normal Berrios season in 2020 (63 innings, 4.00 ERA, 1.32 WHIP), the righty has replicated that season so far with a 3.56 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 83.1 innings pitched. The man just keeps doing it. Meanwhile, Mejia? Not so much. He’s been blasted for a 7.53 ERA and hasn’t won a game.

Best bets: A same game parlay with the Twins here, but don’t sleep on the Indians — they’ve been really good offensively as of late. 

Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals

Pirates (+160), Cardinals (-190)
Total: 9.0 runs
Chad Kuhl (R) vs. Carlos Martínez (R)

While Busch Stadium has historically played as a pitcher-friendly ballpark, this one could see some explosive fireworks on offense. Carlos Martínez has been truly awful for the Cardinals — as has the rest of their pitching staff — a 6.62 ERA and 1.37 WHIP over 68 innings pitched. And in the last month, spanning 20.2 innings pitching, he’s been even more brutal. He’s got a strikeout per inning, but he’s got a 12.19 ERA. And Chad Kuhl has been no better.

Best bets: The OVER. These two pitchers are horrible. 

Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers

Cubs (+200), Dodgers (-245)
Total: 8.0 runs
Zach Davies (R) vs. Walker Buehler (R)

Well, the Dodgers are coming off a spicy three-game set against the Padres, and they will certainly be looking for revenge — they got swept in the series and both the Dodgers and the Padres are staring up at the Giants in the standings. The Cubs? Their poor run of play also has them staring up in the NL Central at the Brewers, so both teams need this series. Buehler has been brilliant, and they will need him to stem the tide on this losing streak.

Best bets: With Cody Bellinger back in the mixer, expect the Dodgers to get back on track and look at a F3 or F5. 

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)

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