Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a peek and let us know what your thoughts are around our new daily piece!
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
Rays (-116), Yankees (-102)
Total: 8.5 runs
Rich Hill (L) vs. Jameson Taillon (R)
The Rays have been absolutely on fire in the month of May and have surged to the top of the AL East standings. The Yankees, meanwhile, are muddling — they were swept by the lowly Detroit Tigers over the weekend and are struggling to find an offensive identity. Giancarlo Stanton has returned to the lineup, but the offense needs to get in gear.
Best bets: Tampa Bay TT Over 4.5 runs (-118). Jameson Taillon has been victimized by the long ball this season (1.9 HR/9) and the Rays have been smokin’ hot at the dish recently.
Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles
Twins (-164), Orioles (+138)
Total: 8.5 runs
José Berríos (R) vs. Jorge López (R)
Back to Camden Yards for the O’s, and we are well aware of how much this park inflates offense. So far this season, Camden ranks sixth in park factor and second in home run factor through the first two months of the year. Nelson Cruz could bop yet another long ball today.
Best bets: The over. And big time. Berrios has been mediocre so far this season and Jorge López is, well, Jorge López.
Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds
Phillies (-102), Reds (-116)
Total: 8.5 runs
Vince Velasquez (R) vs. Wade Miley (L)
At first glance, when you look at these two pitchers who certainly have had their warts over the years, it feels like an easy over bet. But, I’m not so sure about that. Velasquez has a sub-3.00 ERA and has found a way to possibly harness that immense talent (and control and command). Miley has thrown a no-hitter already this season, and the Phillies lineup is all kinds of banged up with Bryce Harper and Didi Gregorius nursing injuries.
Best bets: The Reds home park is a hitter’s haven, but VV has done an outstanding job neutralizing righties. I’m probably looking at some home run props here.
Detroit Tigers at Milwaukee Brewers
Tigers (+175), Brewers (-195)
Total: 8.0 runs
Tyler Alexander (L) vs. Corbin Burnes (R)
On paper, a massive mismatch here. The Tigers are rolling out Alexander, who has worked primarily out of the bullpen this season. He hasn’t been exactly scintillating in the role, either. He has logged a 4.70 ERA and a strikeout per inning, which is in line with his career numbers of 110 innings. Burnes, meanwhile, continues to put up eye-popping numbers for the Brewers.
Best bets: The same game parlay at FanDuel here is a must. Try stacking a Burnes strikeout prop along with the Brewers moneyline to get better juice.
San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs
Padres (-177), Cubs (+154)
Total: 8.5 runs
Chris Paddack (R) vs. Kohl Stewart (R)
After a late scratch occurred to Trevor Williams, the Cubs may be at a disadvantage, as Kohl Stewart will make an emergency start for the Cubs. That may not be good news when that infamous Wrigley Field wind is taken into consideration. It’s blowing out at 10 miles per hour today.
Best bets: The wind completely changes the game here, and this time we are smashing the over.
Los Angeles Angels at San Francisco Giants
Angels (+120), Giants (-142)
Total: 9.0 runs
Dylan Bundy (R) vs. Johnny Cueto (R)
It has not been easy sledding for Dylan Bundy in 2021. A trendy breakout pick for fantasy purposes a season ago, this year has been anything but the same for Bundy. Over 45.2 IP, the right-hander sports a 6.50 ERA, and while the 24.1% strikeout rate remains gaudy, the 1.77 HR/9 is the real issue. On the flip side, veteran Johnny Cueto remains solid for the Giants with a 2.63 FIP in 37.1 IP.
Best bets: This just screams to pound the Giants, whether it be a moneyline bet or something like an F5 bet. Bundy has just not looked right this season.
Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros
Red Sox (+100), Astros (-118)
Total: 9.0 runs
Eduardo Rodríguez (L) vs. José Urquidy (R)
If there’s one time I don’t want to face right now as an opposing pitcher, it’s the Houston Astros. They rank 11th in team wOBA (.312) over the last 14 days, and they still remain nearly impossible to strike out (15.4% strikeout rate). They don’t necessarily sport a ton of pop, as a .132 ISO isn’t anything to brag about.
Best bets: I’m taking the over here, and there is not a strikeout pop I like. Both teams simply put the ball in play too much.
Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners
Athletics (-142), Mariners (+116)
Total: 8.5 runs
James Kaprielian (R) vs. Logan Gilbert (R)
A few months ago, had we teased that there would be a monster pitching matchup involving Logan Gilbert, unanimously, folks would have assumed the Mariners are a heavy favorite. Not so fast, my friends. While Gilbert has been bumpy due to giving up far too many homers, James Kaprielian has burst on to the scene this year, a 27.1% strikeout rate has certainly been a major shot in the arm for an A’s rotation that is missing A.J. Puk and had some up-and-down performances from other arms.
Best bets: Any reasonable strikeout prop for Kaprielian over 5.5 strikeouts is the smash button. Seattle ranks fifth-worst in major league baseball in strikeout rate.
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves
Nationals (+156), Braves (-186)
Total: 8.5 runs
Joe Ross (R) vs. Charlie Morton (R)
Interestingly, SunTrust Park has played as an offensive paradise for the Braves, after not necessarily playing like one in the past. It ranks in the top 10 in both park factor (ninth) and home run factor (eighth). That’s good news for a Braves offense that faces Joe Ross, whose 5.56 FIP is driven by an ugly 9.9% walk rate this season and a lot of hard contact.
Best bets: The OVER. I have been hammering this bet in Atlanta, and with Ross starting, Atlanta may take care of this by itself.
