NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
We’re back again for this week’s fantasy baseball Double Dip — highlighting pitchers making two starts in a week. Some of the plays may be obvious — you don’t need me telling you that when Jacob deGrom is starting twice, a 1,000-word soliloquy highlighting why it’s a good idea to start him. You just do it.
But volume is key, especially two-start-pitcher volume. This column aims to identify all the two start hurlers, the ones that are no-brainers, the ones that are avoids, and most importantly, focus on the tough-to-call decisions.
Each week, I’ll do my best to highlight some of those tricky arms, and what could come your way.
All of the two-steppers (39)
- Merrill Kelly, AZ (vs. NYM, at MIL)
- Matt Peacock, AZ (vs. NYM, at MIL)
- Drew Smyly, ATL (vs. WAS, vs. LAD)
- Tucker Davidson, ATL (vs. WAS, vs. LAD)
- Jorge López, BAL (vs. MIN, vs. CLE)
- Garrett Richards, BOS (at HOU, at NYY)
- Nick Pivetta, BOS (at HOU, at NYY)
- Trevor Williams, CHC (vs. SD, at SF)
- Kyle Hendricks, CHC (vs. SD, at SF)
- Tyler Mahle, CIN (vs. PHI, at STL)
- Sonny Gray, CIN (vs. PHI, at STL)
- Triston McKenzie, CLE (vs. CWS, at BAL)
- Germán Márquez, COL (vs. TEX, vs. OAK)
- Carlos Rodón, CWS (at CLE, vs. DET)
- Dylan Cease, CWS (at CLE, vs. DET)
- José Ureña, DET (at MIL, at CWS)
- José Urquidy, HOU (vs. BOS, at TOR)
- Luis García, HOU (vs. BOS, at TOR)
- Mike Minor, KC (vs. PIT, vs. MIN)
- Brady Singer, KC (vs. PIT, vs. MIN)
- Trevor Bauer, LAD (vs. STL, at ATL)
- Pablo López, MIA (at TOR, at PIT)
- Corbin Burnes, MIL (vs. DET, vs. AZ)
- José Berríos, MIN (at BAL, at KC)
- Michael Pineda, MIN (at BAL, at KC)
- Marcus Stroman, NYM (at AZ, at SD)
- Jordan Montgomery, NYY (vs. TB, vs. BOS)
- James Kaprielian, OAK (at SEA, at COL)
- Vince Velasquez, PHI (at CIN, vs. WAS)
- Wil Crowe, PIT (at KC, vs. MIA)
- Tyler Anderson, PIT (at KC, vs. MIA)
- Joe Musgrove, SD (at CHC, vs. NYM)
- Logan Gilbert, SEA (vs. OAK, at LAA)
- Johnny Cueto, SF (vs. LAA, vs. CHC)
- Jack Flaherty, STL (at LAD, vs. CIN)
- Rich Hill, TB (at NYY, at TEX)
- Dane Dunning, TEX (at COL, vs. TB)
- Joe Ross, WAS (at ATL, at PHI)
- Stephen Strasburg, WAS (at ATL, at PHI)
The no-brainers (22)
This group should definitely be in your starting lineup — whether it’s due to matchup or just sheer brilliance, don’t overthink this one. This is a larger group than regular, mostly due to excellent matchups — in fact, it may be our biggest group of must starts this season. This is a monster two-step week.
- Nick Pivetta, BOS (at HOU, at NYY)
- Kyle Hendricks, CHC (vs. SD, at SF)
- Tyler Mahle, CIN (vs. PHI, at STL)
- Sonny Gray, CIN (vs. PHI, at STL)
- Carlos Rodón, CWS (at CLE, vs. DET)
- Dylan Cease, CWS (at CLE, vs. DET)
- Luis García, HOU (vs. BOS, at TOR)
- Mike Minor, KC (vs. PIT, vs. MIN)
- Brady Singer, KC (vs. PIT, vs. MIN)
- Trevor Bauer, LAD (vs. STL, at ATL)
- Pablo López, MIA (at TOR, at PIT)
- Corbin Burnes, MIL (vs. DET, vs. AZ)
- José Berríos, MIN (at BAL, at KC)
- Michael Pineda, MIN (at BAL, at KC)
- Marcus Stroman, NYM (at AZ, at SD)
- Jordan Montgomery, NYY (vs. TB, vs. BOS)
- James Kaprielian, OAK (at SEA, at COL)
- Joe Musgrove, SD (at CHC, vs. NYM)
- José Urquidy, HOU (vs. BOS, at TOR)
- Johnny Cueto, SF (vs. LAA, vs. CHC)
- Jack Flaherty, STL (at LAD, vs. CIN)
- Rich Hill, TB (at NYY, at TEX)
- Stephen Strasburg, WAS (at ATL, at PHI)
The run-and-hides (10)
This group should only be started out of pure desperation — the volume is nice, and it definitely could end up working out for you, but starting these hurlers is a real gamble.
- Matt Peacock, AZ (vs. NYM, at MIL)
- Tucker Davidson, ATL (vs. WAS, vs. LAD)
- Jorge López, BAL (vs. MIN, vs. CLE)
- José Ureña, DET (at MIL, at CWS)
- Vince Velasquez, PHI (at CIN, vs. WAS)
- Wil Crowe, PIT (at KC, vs. MIA)
- Logan Gilbert, SEA (vs. OAK, at LAA)
- Dane Dunning, TEX (at COL, vs. TB)
- Joe Ross, WAS (at ATL, at PHI)
The meat and potatoes (7)
This group is one that takes a bit more thinking — the volume is nice, but the matchup could be tricky. Is it worth taking the risk on a questionable start for what could be some juicy fantasy goodness? Let’s dig in and find out.
And since they say imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, I am going to use a similar rating scale that Clay Link and Todd Zola do over at Rotowire — if I was playing in five fantasy baseball leagues, how many would I feel comfortable starting this hurler? Using that as our barometer, we should be able to appropriately deem the risk and reward that’s available if you so choose to start this arm. Keep in mind — your league and team context are always key. I’m using a 12-team NFBC Online Championship format as my primary backdrop.
- Merrill Kelly, AZ (vs. NYM, at MIL, 6%) — FOUR LEAGUES OUT OF FIVE: To be quite honest, Kelly has been bad this season, but really good as of late. His 4.04 FIP belies that better days are indeed ahead for him — he’s only recorded a 21.2% strikeout rate this season, but his hefty 43.6% ground-ball rate insulates him. And these offenses are not the ‘27 Yankees — the Mets currently represent a Triple-A team, and Milwaukee has not found their stride. I would be rostering a lot of Kelly this week, and he is widely available in a 12-team format.
- Drew Smyly, ATL (vs. WAS, vs. LAD, 74%) — TWO: I actually flip-flopped back and forth here on Smyly, pondering whether or not he should be in the avoids list. I don’t like what I have seen stuff wise — it’s hard when you have a pitcher with a 5.95 ERA, but his 6.49 FIP is even worse thanks to a combination of a low strikeout rate and a low ground ball rate. Fold in two difficult matchups against two good offenses? I would have to be really desperate to start Smyly here.
- Garrett Richards, BOS (at HOU, at NYY, 57%) — THREE: Richards sports the rare combination of nearly identical ERA (3.83) and FIP (3.84) — that’s hard to do. The right-hander has electric stuff, and his 48.1% ground-ball rate shows that he has the repertoire to compete at a high level. The problem with Richards this week is the tough slate of opponents — the Astros strike out at the league’s lowest rate, and a matchup in Yankee Stadium is no bueno.
- Trevor Williams, CHC (vs. SD, at SF, 1%) — THREE: The numbers for Williams are, at best, inconsistent — that’s what a 5.36 ERA and 1.60 WHIP will do for you. But he is averaging better than a whiff an inning, and when the starts are good, they are brilliant — as evidenced by his six inning, seven strikeout performance with only a single earned run last week. The first start will be challenging, but the second start will be nice — the Giants have whiffed north of 27% of the time in the last 14 days.
- Triston McKenzie, CLE (vs. CWS, at BAL, 40%) — THREE: This is the shakiest of the two steps, as McKenzie was optioned after five scoreless innings last week. He could be brought back up to start, and like Williams, he faces a very tough first start, and a far more palatable second start. If he can avoid a landmine against the White Sox — they have won 21 straight games against lefties but have had far less success against righties — this could be a valuable week to own him.
- Germán Márquez, COL (vs. TEX, vs. OAK, 91%) — THREE: This is going to be probably a tougher than anticipated choice for fantasy managers — the conundrum, as always, with Marquez — do you start him in Coors, and do you start him in a double tap week, no less? Marquez has been the pitcher we have expected — a 4.47 ERA, a 1.49 WHIP, and over a strikeout an inning. The Texas offense isn’t as bad as anticipated, and Oakland can heat up.
- Tyler Anderson, PIT (at KC, vs. MIA, 26%) — THREE: Another difficult choice for fantasy players — do we prioritize the attempt to make up ground with volume, or do we risk ruining our ratio categories? The good news — Anderson’s second start of the week comes against a moribund Miami Marlins offense that clocks in fifth-worst in baseball (26.6%). The Kansas City offense, with the newly added Adalberto Mondesi returning from an oblique injury, is a bit more challenging.
