WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
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Knowledge is power in fantasy baseball, and one thing that we have learned is that in 12 NFBC drafts so far, they are going a little bit differently than before.
The best part about an NFBC-style draft is the ability to track ADP. You aren’t simply guessing at what players are doing — you’re immersed in trackable data not only showcasing their average, but their minimum and maximum pick, and if they were drafted at all.
The good fantasy players are aware this exists. The great players can understand these trends and use it to their advantage on draft day.
Let’s look at five players currently going post-300 in ADP (nearly undrafted) and could wind up making a big impact in this 60-game sprint.
Yoenis Céspedes, OF/DH, New York Mets
ADP: 309.92, min. 243, max. 357
This one should gather plenty of eyerolls, as Céspedes has accumulated a combined 478 injury-riddled plate appearances in 2018 and 2019 combined. Not good, Bob.
But let’s not forget that the 35-year-old slugger seems to have plenty of juice left in the tank and was a pretty productive hitter when he was last healthy. In 543 plate appearances in 2017, Cespedes smashed 31 home runs with a 9.4% walk rate and .884 OPS. That will absolutely play.
Now, many sites don’t have him projected for a ton of time — in fact, over at FanGraphs they have Dominic Smith listed as the starter at DH. But, Céspedes is likely to gather a decent number of at-bats in a sneaky-strong offense. If you need a bench bat, don’t forget about the veteran righty slugger.
Corey Dickerson, OF, Miami Marlins
ADP: 377.17, min. 252, max. undrafted
I swear this isn’t a piece about NL East-only players, but there’s quite a bit of value in this division, and the next one to take a look out is veteran lefty slugger Dickerson.
Dickerson consistently manned the three-spot in the Marlins batting order this spring, batting behind table-setters Jonathan Villar and BrIan Anderson. He can be quite the batting average pillow for your leagues, as he owns a .286 career mark. Coming off a season where he posted a career-best 38.6% hard-hit rate, he moves to Marlins Park, which makes it easier to pop home runs, especially for lefty bats.
Another underrated component of Dickerson’s potential success is that of his 40 NL East divisional games, only four of 20 starters are left-handed, including a projected all right-handed rotation for the Phillies. Dickerson’s ability to perhaps play every day could be massive for his counting statistics.
For a possibly boring but strong bat at almost no cost, peep Dickerson.
Austin Voth, SP, Washington Nationals
ADP: 378.92, min. 318, max. undrafted
With Joe Ross opting out of the 2020 season, Voth is a prime candidate to assume the No. 5 spot in the rotation, assuming he can beat out Erick Fedde for the role. Drafted out of the fifth round in 2013 by Washington, Voth put together his best season last year over 43.2 innings pitched, recording a solid 3.30 ERA and 25.3% strikeout rate.
Part of Voth’s success was predicated on trading in his fastball for higher curveball usage, which was a good decision — he allowed only a .088 ISO, .487 OPS, and 20.9% swinging-strike rate on the breaking ball.
If he can nail down that final rotation spot, while his ratios may rise with the loss of the pitcher batting, he can still provide significant late-round value.
Trent Grisham, OF, San Diego Padres
ADP: 388.67, min. 256, max. undrafted
It’s honestly a bit puzzling why a player of Grisham’s caliber is going so late in drafts. Allow me to digress.
There’s no disguising the fact that San Diego’s home park favors strong pitching. It clocked in third-worst in park factor and tied for 22nd-worst in home run factor, according to ESPN. However, that depressing home park could be alleviated a bit by this unbalanced schedule, including seven road games in hitter-friendly Coors Field.
All of this still ignores the Grisham’s play, where he is outstanding across the board. In eight total professional baseball stops, Grisham has posted a double-digit walk rate in all of them, and his 32-homer, 13-steal campaign in 2019 could have been his coming-out party.
Grisham’s stellar defensive play should make him a regular play in the outfield, and he could be a fantasy gold mine in 2020.
James Karinchak, RP, Cleveland Indians
ADP: 402.75, min. 295, max. undrafted
The flame-throwing Karinchak could very well land a job as the Cleveland Indians closer this season. Even if he doesn’t, Karinchak could still provide major value, even if he’s an arm that you may not be particularly aware of.
Check out these numbers — in a cup of coffee in 2019, Karinchak whiffed 74 batters across 32.2 innings pitched. Across three levels, that’s a whopping 54.4% strikeout rate. Karinchak isn’t a one-pitch pitcher, with a curveball that posted a 17.1% swinging-strike rate last season.
Keep in mind the righty reliever sits behind lefty Brad Hand, which means he could see plenty of unique ninth-inning opportunities against same-sided bats. Over at Caesar’s, Cleveland sits with an over/under win total of 32, just behind the Minnesota Twins. With 20 games against the Tigers and Royals, ignoring Karinchak and his potentially explosive profile could be a bad play.
