Sunday Night Baseball Betting Breakdown

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Today, Eric Pauly provides his pick.

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San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Padres +140, Dodgers -165, Total 9.5, DraftKings Sportsbook
SP: Mike Clevinger (R) vs. Caleb Ferguson (L)

Tonight’s edition of Sunday Night Baseball features a showdown between the top two teams in the NL West. The Dodgers are currently the only 90+ win team in baseball, and the Padres have a 0.5 game lead in the NL Wild Card. This series is knotted up 1-1, so the winner of tonight’s game will win this series. 

Though the Padres can win this three-game set, they have been no match for Los Angeles so far this season. The Dodgers lead the season series 9-3 and have an 18-game lead over the Padres in the NL West. 

Mike Clevinger will make the start for San Diego in Los Angeles. In 16 starts this year, Clevinger is 5-5 with a 3.59 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and a 4.36 FIP. Clevinger faced the Dodgers on the road back on August 6 and allowed five runs on seven hits in 4.2 innings of work in a Padres loss. 

Clevinger has pitched more innings on the road this season, and his numbers are slightly worse away from San Diego. In 52 road innings, Clevinger has a 3.98 ERA, .303 on-base percentage against, 4.26 FIP and 1.21 WHIP. Despite his slightly worse road splits, the Padres are 8-3 straight up in Clevinger’s road starts this year. 

Lefty Caleb Ferguson will make his first start of the year tonight for the Dodgers. Ferguson has made 25 appearances this season and has tossed just 24.1 innings. Through those 24.1 innings, Ferguson has a 1.85 ERA, .90 WHIP and 2.59 FIP. He has never gone more than 1.1 innings this season. 

Since Ferguson has yet to throw more than 1.1 innings in a game this season, it is fair to expect the Dodgers to use a ton of pitchers throughout tonight’s game. The Dodgers bullpen has the third-best ERA in baseball, the lowest WHIP and have let up the third-lowest runs this season.

The Dodgers pen will be tasked with shutting down one of the better road offenses in baseball. The Padres have the seventh-best team OPS on the road. In the month of August, the Padres had the sixth-best team OPS in all of baseball. San Diego struggles against left-handed pitching, but Ferguson will not pitch deep into this game. 

On the other hand, Clevinger is tasked with shutting down the best offense in MLB. The Dodgers lead baseball in WAR (33.2) and wRC+ (121). The Dodgers are 22-8 in their last 30 games, which is the best in the league over that span. 

Despite the fact the Dodgers have controlled this series all season, tonight looks like a spot to back the Padres. Clevinger has been solid on the road this season, and the Padres offense averages more runs on the road as well. The Dodgers are scorching hot, but they are not trotting out any of their solid starters. 

San Diego needs this win more than the Dodgers do, and I expect a tight game. I am rolling with the Padres RL +1.5 -135. I have this game priced at SD +1.5 -148, so there is value on the +1.5 -135, which is offered by DraftKings Sportsbook. 

Bet: San Diego Padres RL +1.5 -135