Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
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Stat Hero MLB Picks for today
Here is a look at my favorite plays on StatHero for Wednesday’s slate.
StatHero MVP
Your team MVP scores 1.5x the amount of fantasy points and you lose points for strikeouts so pick someone you feel is safe, ideally with a low chance of striking out.
Juan Soto, Washington Nationals
Drew Smyly is coming off his worst start of the season, allowing seven earned runs on two five hits including two homers to the Red Sox. Since 2019, Smyly is allowing a .365 wOBA, .335 ISO and 47.4% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. Soto is one of the best left-handed hitters in the game even against left-handed pitchers (.378 wOBA, .242 ISO, 37.4% hard contact rate since 2019). Smyly managed to pitch six one-run innings against this Nationals team May 6, but I believe it was a fluke because it’s his only start with zero barrels and the 52.9% hard contact allowed by him that day is his third-highest this season. Soto is way too cheap at $8,600.
José Abreu, Chicago White Sox
Abreu was named the AL Player of the Week for the week of May 30 after collecting nine hits, including two doubles and two home runs. Indians rookie pitcher Eli Morgan struggled in his Major League debut last time out, giving up six earned runs in less than three innings. Abreu is not only a great hitter against lefties, he also hits right-handed pitching well too with a .346 wOBA, .228 ISO and 40.9% hard contact rate since 2019. However, the weather looks troublesome so double check it closer to lock before submitting your lineup.
J.D. Martinez, Boston Red Sox
Martinez is one of the best hitters against left-handed pitching in all of baseball with a .440 wOBA, .346 ISO and 39.6% hard contact rate since 2019. Framber Valdez is making just his second start of the season after returning from the IL with a fractured finger. Since 2019, Valdez is allowing a lot of hard contact (39.9%) to right-handed hitters. Martinez hits all his pitches well so I want to take advantage of his $9,400 price tag.
StatHero flex pick
Trea Turner, Washington Nationals
Here’s another Nationals bat to attack Drew Smyly with. Since 2019, Smyly is allowing a .353 wOBA, .229 ISO and 41.9% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Turner has been the best hitter on the Nationals this season and his 12 stolen bases are tied for second in MLB. Smyly is combining to throw his fastball and curveball 94.4% of the time. This bodes well for Turner who is hitting both pitches well this season with a wRC+ of at least 147.
Ryan McMahon, Colorado Rockies
McMahon may be the best way to get exposure to Coors Field with a decent price. Since 2019, Jordan Lyles has struggled with left-handed hitters giving up a .363 wOBA, .218 ISO and 38.8% hard contact rate. In that same time frame McMahon is hitting right-handed pitching well with a .331 wOBA, .203 ISO and 44.4% hard contact rate.
Josh Donaldson, Minnesota Twins
A rough month of May for Donaldson ended on a high note, going 5-13 with three doubles in his last three games. Matt Harvey continues to get lit up, giving up at least five earned runs in four straight starts. Since 2019, Harvey is allowing a .374 wOBA and .215 ISO to right-handed hitters. Donaldson matches up great with Harvey’s five pitches, hitting each with a career wRC+ of at least 106.
Pete Alonso, New York Mets
Picking hitters against Madison Bumgarner paid off Friday when he allowed six earned runs for the third time this season. Since 2019, Bumgarner is allowing a .331 wOBA, .219 ISO and 44.9% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Alonso has crushed left-handed pitching in his career with a .353 wOBA, .297 ISO and 41.1% hard contact rate. He also matches up well with Bumgarner’s pitch repertoire, hitting his three main pitches with a wRC+ of at least 112 this season.
Nelson Cruz, Minnesota Twins
I definitely want as much exposure to Twins as I can get with Harvey on the mound. Cruz is fairly cheap after a rough May in which he hit just .221. He did reach base safely four times Tuesday night in Baltimore and was robbed of extra bases by a stellar catch from Cedric Mullins. He is clearly seeing the ball well and is fairly easy to fit into your lineup at $10,300 with a very plus matchup.
StatHero sleeper
Yan Gomes, Washington Nationals
A great price at $7,900, especially for a guy with an established track record and a great matchup in Smyly. Gomes hits left-handed pitching very well (.376 wOBA, .227 ISO, 38% hard contact rate since 2019). History bodes well for Gomes who has gone 6-19 with two doubles and two home runs against Smyly.
Hunter Renfroe, Boston Red Sox
Renfroe is heating up at the plate riding a five-game hit streak with four multi-hit games including two home runs. A lefty killer throughout his career but especially since 2019 with a .367 wOBA, .313 ISO and 46.4% hard contact rate. His 47.7% fly ball rate against lefties should negate Valdez’s ground ball tendencies. I like his upside at $8,600.
Jacob Nottingham, Seattle Mariners
One of the cheapest players available on StatHero at $5,800. The splits are in his favor with left-handed pitcher Sean Manaea on the mound. It’s a small sample but Nottingham has destroyed left-handed pitching since 2019 with a .523 wOBA, .655 ISO and 38.9% hard contact rate in 34 plate appearances. All three of his home runs this season have come against left-handed pitching. If you want to get a lot of big bats in your lineup, he is a good way to do that with such a cheap salary.
Note: salaries change throughout the day as news and lineups come out.
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