Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
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Stat Hero MLB Picks for today
Here is a look at my favorite plays on StatHero for Friday’s slate.
StatHero MVP
Your team MVP scores 1.5x the amount of fantasy points and you lose points for strikeouts so pick someone you feel is safe, ideally with a low chance of striking out.
Nelson Cruz, Minnesota Twins
After a tough month of May, Cruz is all the way back to his Hall of Fame form that we know and love. He is hitting .390 with three doubles, four home runs and has reached base safely in every game this month. He crushes right-handed pitching with a .381 wOBA, .267 ISO and 44% hard contact rate since 2019. Mike Foltynewicz has been terrible in his last two starts, giving up 12 earned runs in 6.1 innings pitched. He’s allowed 16 home runs on the season, which is tied for the second most in baseball. Since 2019, Foltynewicz is struggling with right-handed hitters, giving up a .210 ISO and 39.8% hard contact rate. Cruz matches up well with Foltynewicz, hitting three of his four main pitches with a career wRC+ of at least 139. He’s even more valuable at his ridiculously low price tag of $7,500.
José Ramírez, Cleveland Indians
The two-time All-Star is making a push for another appearance in the Midsummer Classic with six multi-hit games this month and home runs in back-to-back games. He’s been excellent against right-handed pitching for a long time (.355 wOBA, .260 ISO, 39% hard contact rate since 2019). Opposing starter Chad Kuhl has given up three or more earned runs in five of his seven starts this season. Left-handed hitters have enjoyed hitting against Kuhl with a .343 wOBA, .213 ISO and 38.2% hard contact rate since the start of last season.
Matt Olson, Oakland Athletics
Another hitter on absolute fire in June, Olson is hitting .431 with four doubles, five home runs and six multi-hit games. Jameson Taillon on the other hand couldn’t get out of the first inning in his last start. Since 2019, Taillon is allowing a .344 wOBA and .212 ISO to left-handed hitters. Olson is a righty killer with a .376 wOBA, .275 ISO and 47.4% hard contact rate since 2019. Olson has at least a 109 wRC+ this season against all of Taillon’s pitches.
StatHero flex pick
Mike Yastrzemski, San Francisco Giants
Vince Velasquez is throwing his fastball 51% of the time this season, and it’s a negative value pitch thus far. Yastrzemski crushes right-handed pitching with .367 wOBA, .259 ISO and 41.4% hard contact rate since 2019. He’s also destroying fastballs with a 171 wRC+ this season. Velasquez has been beaten up by left-handed hitters with a .356 wOBA, .207 ISO and 40.9% hard contact rate since 2019.
Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays
Bichette was trudging through April and May but has seen the light at the end of the tunnel this month, hitting .349 with a hit in every game but one, and two doubles, one triple and three home runs. He’s arguably the best hitter against left-handed pitching on the Blue Jays with a .409 wOBA and .252 ISO since 2019. Bruce Zimmermann has not fare well against right-handed hitters since 2019 allowing a .353 wOBA, .215 ISO and 39.8% hard contact rate. Bichette also matches up well with Zimmermann’s pitches, hitting each with a career wRC+ of at least 111.
Trey Mancini, Baltimore Orioles
A bit of a slow month for Mancini, but he has been heating up in his two games going 5-for-10 in Cleveland. He’s going up against left-handed pitcher Robbie Ray, who has given up 16 home runs this season, tied for the second most in the big leagues. Mancini crushes lefties with a .391 wOBA, .281 ISO and 39.2% hard contact rate since 2019. Ray struggles with right-handed hitters, allowing a .352 wOBA, .240 ISO, 42% hard contact rate and 42.4% fly ball rate since 2019.
Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals
Perez is on a huge power surge this month after clobbering his seventh home run Wednesday. Nick Pivetta’s Cinderella run is coming to an end, coming off his worst start of the season giving up six earned runs on four homers. Since 2019 Pivetta is allowing a .343 wOBA, .217 ISO and 37.1% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Perez matches up well with his pitches, hitting each one with a wRC+ of at least 120 this season. He also demolishing right-handed pitching with a .364 wOBA, .227 ISO and 39.6% hard contact rate since 2019.
StatHero sleeper
Justin Turner, Los Angeles Dodgers
Turner is way, way, way too cheap at $7,500 and someone who could arguably be in the MVP category. He has been a longtime lefty killer, since 2019 he’s mashing them with a .374 wOBA, .265 ISO and a whopping 52.7% hard contact rate. Caleb Smith is an extreme fly ball pitcher (55.8% to RHH since 2019) giving up 29 fly balls compared to just eight ground balls since rejoining the starting rotation this month. Righties are also having success against him with a .238 ISO and 37.7% hard contact rate since 2019. Turner matches up well with Smith’s pitches, hitting each with a career wRC+ of at least 106.
Josh Donaldson, Minnesota Twins
Donaldson is another guy who is super cheap at $6,400. He’s not having as good of a month as his teammate Cruz, but he has hit five home runs this month. However, he is almost as good as Cruz against right-handed pitching with a .368 wOBA, .257 ISO, 42.5% hard contact rate since 2019. Donaldson also matches up well with Foltynewicz, hitting all four of his main pitches with a career wRC+ of at least 106.
Note: salaries change throughout the day as news and lineups come out.
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