Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
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Stat Hero MLB Picks for today
Here is a look at my favorite plays on StatHero for Wednesday’s slate.
StatHero MVP
Your team MVP scores 1.5x the amount of fantasy points and you lose points for strikeouts so pick someone you feel is safe, ideally with a low chance of striking out.
Mitch Haniger, Seattle Mariners
Facing one of my favorite pitchers to attack this season in Tarik Skubal, Haniger is one of my favorite plays on the slate. Skubal continues to struggle with right-handed hitters, allowing a .400 wOBA, .355 ISO, and 58.2% fly ball rate in his career. With 12 home runs already this season (T-second in MLB) he is on pace to demolish his career high (26 in 2018). Skubal has also allowed 11 home runs this season, which is tied for the most in baseball.
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros
After a good April, Alvarez is on another level in May, hitting .381 with five home runs. Frankie Montas had one of his best starts of the season against the Astros earlier this season where Alvarez went 0-3 against him with two strikeouts. However, both strikeouts were long at-bats where it took at least eight pitches to get him out, so this tells me he was seeing the ball well against Montas. Since 2018, Montas has struggled some against lefties, allowing a .341 wOBA, .194 ISO, and 40.6% hard contact rate. Alvarez crushes right-handed pitching and profiles well against Montas’ pitch repertoire.
J.D. Martinez, Boston Red Sox
Martinez let us down a bit last Friday but still got on base twice, so it wasn’t a total failure. Ross Stripling has been a reverse-splits pitcher throughout his career. When you go back to 2018, Stripling is allowing a .353 wOBA and .221 ISO to right-handed hitters. Martinez is having another MVP caliber season and matches up well with Stripling’s pitches, hitting each one with at least a 169 wRC+ this season.
StatHero flex pick
Juan Soto, Washington Nationals
It has been a really tough start to May for Soto thus far. Jake Arrieta has struggled against left-handed hitters since his first stint as a Cubs pitcher. Going back to 2018, Arrieta is allowing a .363 wOBA and .196 ISO to lefties. This season, Arrieta has been great at home, allowing just three of his 17 earned runs at Wrigley Field. However, those starts have come against some of the worst offenses in the Pirates, Brewers and Mets. Soto is arguably the best hitter he will have faced at the friendly confines. Soto has gotten the better of Arrieta when they have matched up before, going 4-11 with a double and two home runs.
Ramón Laureano, Oakland Athletics
Laureano had a huge night Tuesday with two home runs and the walk-off sacrifice fly. Now he gets to face Zack Greinke, who he has hit well in the past, going 6-11 with two doubles, a triple and a home run. Greinke is having a tough May, giving up at least three earned runs in all three of his starts and inducing just 6.1% soft contact compared to 24.8% in April. Laureano always plays well against the Astros in his career (.405 wOBA, .246 ISO in 33 games) so I like his chances to stay hot.
Kyle Schwarber, Washington Nationals
The former Cubs left fielder has found an extra gear in the last several games, recording a hit in nine of his last 11 games, including four of his six home runs on the season. Being back at Wrigley Field served him well Monday night, and I think that extra motivation continues as he gets to face former teammate Jake Arrieta and his aforementioned struggles against left-handed hitters.
Corey Dickerson, Miami Marlins
It’s been a tough month for Dickerson, but this is a good matchup that can maybe get him back on track. Zach Eflin has struggled against left-handed hitters throughout his career and this season is no different (.360 wOBA, .212 ISO). Dickerson has traditionally hit right-handed pitching well with a .348 wOBA and .188 ISO since 2018. He also matches up well with Eflin’s pitches, hitting his main four with a wRC+ of at least 120 throughout his career.
StatHero sleeper
Matt Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals
The last couple seasons have not been the best for Carpenter, to say the least. However, his advanced stats against right-handed pitching are still where we want them to be (.339 wOBA, .215 ISO, 44.8% hard contact rate since 2018). On the bump will be Trevor Cahill, who has had a very up and down season thus far. Cahill has not been the best against lefties, allowing a .336 wOBA, .203 ISO, and 40% hard contact rate since 2018. Carpenter has the upper hand in their meetings going 6-13 with two doubles and a 1.115 OPS.
Jonathan Schoop, Detroit Tigers
Heating up over the last four games going 7-18 with two doubles and a home run, Schoop is back in play after a tough start. Rookie Logan Gilbert was roughed up in his major league debut against the Indians, giving up four runs in four innings including two long balls. At $7,800 I like his chances against the rookie.
Luis Torrens, Seattle Mariners
He has not had a good season to date, but hopefully he gets on track against Skubal. As mentioned above, one of my favorite pitchers to attack and as the cheapest Mariners hitter at just $7,700 he is absolutely worth a shot.
Note: salaries change throughout the day as news and lineups come out.
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