Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
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Stat Hero MLB Picks for today
Here is a look at my favorite plays on StatHero for Tuesday’s slate.
StatHero MVP
Your team MVP scores 1.5x the amount of fantasy points and you lose points for strikeouts so pick someone you feel is safe, ideally with a low chance of striking out.
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
Judge is one of the hottest hitters in the game as he’s racked up four homers over his past five contests. He has five home runs and five multi-hit games over his last seven. He’ll see pitches from Mike Foltynewicz, who has already allowed 11 bombs this season. Foltynewicz enters with a 40% hard-hit rate, 43% flyball rate and 83% contact rate. Those are major red flags.
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels
Ohtani now leads the league in homers after hitting his 13th Monday. He has bombs in back-to-back games and three over his past four contests. He checks-in on a four-game hit streak in which he’s racked up six RBI. Three of the five homers Zach Plesac has allowed have been to left-handed hitters, and LHB have a higher FB% (35%) than RHB.
Alex Bregman, Houston Astros
Bregman should always be considered as an MVP when he’s up against a lefty. Bregman’s slashing .339/.423/.532 with a .955 OPS and .403 wOBA against southpaws this season. For his career he’s slashing .342/.408/.597 with a 1.005 OPS and .417 wOBA. Sean Manaea has limited lefties to a .095 average and .162 wOBA, but right-handed batters are rocking a .326 average, 46 FB% and .369 wOBA.
StatHero flex pick
Luke Voit, New York Yankees
Voit returned from the IL last week and started his season 0-10, but he’s reeled off three straight multi-hit games since and he went yard Monday night. Voit had 22 homers last season and 21 the year before that. There’s no question he has pop and he’s moved up to the two-spot with Giancarlo Stanton sidelined. The Yankees should be on your radar Tuesday.
Teoscar Hernández, Toronto Blue Jays
Hernández is a value play with upside to consider as his Jays have the second-highest team implied total. It’s a bit of a tougher matchup against Eduardo Rodríguez, which I think is the reason he’s dropped down in price ($7,100), but E-Rod has struggled of late as he’s coughed up nine runs, two homers and five walks in his last three games. His command has been solid for the most part, but he’s allowed six homers and righties have five of them (.340 wOBA).
José Ramírez, Cleveland Indians
Ramírez has been one of the best hitters in baseball dating back to last season, as he already has 11 home runs on the 2021 resume. Ramiez is a career .291 hitter against left-handed pitchers and six of the seven bombs Andrew Heaney has allowed this season have been to righties. Heaney has had his moments but he’s still an extreme fly ball pitcher which gets him into trouble.
Randy Arozarena, Tampa Bay Rays
Arozarena and the Rays have the highest team implied total on the slate as they’ll see pitches from Matt Harvey in Baltimore with the wind blowing out. Harvey coughed up seven runs on eight hits in his last outing and he’s given up 11 runs over his past two outings. Overall, he has a 4.81 ERA and 6.64 K/9. His 84.7 contact percentage is one of highest marks in the league. Right-handed batters have a .313 average and .370 wOBA against Harvey, but lefties are in play as well due to the 46 FB% Harvey has allowed to them.
StatHero sleeper
Andrew Vaughn, Chicago White Sox
The White Sox are straight-up feeling it right now, and I think there’s some negative regression coming Michael Pineda’s way. The Twins pitcher has a solid 2.97 ERA but .3.90 xFIP due to a high 89.9 LOB%. Pineda has taken care of some soft opponents, but he’s struggled with the long-ball as he’s given up eight homers already. He’s allowed at least one home run in five of his seven starts and six over a four-game run. Vaughn only has two home runs, but they’ve both come over the last week.
Note: salaries change throughout the day as news and lineups come out.
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