Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
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Stat Hero MLB Picks for today
Here is a look at my favorite plays on StatHero for Wednesday’s slate.
StatHero MVP
Your team MVP scores 1.5x the amount of fantasy points and you lose points for strikeouts, so pick someone you feel is safe, ideally with a low chance of striking out.
Nelson Cruz, Minnesota Twins
One of the kings of crushing left-handed pitching matching up against Logan Allen, who just gave up three home runs in his last start. Cruz is picking it back up at the dish, collecting hits in five of his last six games, including three of his seven home runs.
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros
Alvarez has just absolutely dominated right-handed pitching in his short career (.422 wOBA, .319 ISO, 47.3% hard contact rate). Justin Dunn has done the exact opposite against left-handed hitters, giving up a .378 wOBA, and .268 ISO. A fly ball hitter going up against a fly ball pitcher is a great recipe for a dinger.
Trevor Story, Colorado Rockies
Your initial thought may be to ignore Story away from Coors, but he should always be in consideration when facing a lefty. Against lefties away from Coors, Story is putting up great numbers, including a .373 wOBA, .213 ISO and 48.1% hard contact rate. Alex Wood has been good to start the season but has only faced the Marlins. Story has had success against Wood in his career, hitting two doubles and a home run in 13 at-bats.
StatHero flex pick
Eric Hosmer, San Diego Padres
Opposing pitcher Taylor Widener got roughed up last outing, giving up three home runs. His 2.82 ERA may look appealing, but looking under the hood shows some flaws, mainly against left-handed hitters. It’s a small sample, but Widener is allowing a .358 wOBA, .287 ISO, 43.6% hard contact and 47.3% fly ball rate to lefties. Hosmer mashes righties and has been hot all season, collecting a hit in 20 of his 24 games.
Yasmani Grandal, Chicago White Sox
Picking lefties against Casey Mize has proven successful, so far so I’m going to keep at it even though Grandal continues to struggle. In his short career, Mize is getting roughed up by left-handed hitters, giving up a .443 wOBA and .337 ISO. He also has allowed five home runs in his last two starts, three to left-handed hitters. Since 2018, Grandal has done damage against right-handed pitchers (.344 wOBA, .210 ISO, 41.4% hard contact rate).
Michael Conforto, New York Mets
Conforto is finally starting to have success at the plate with a hit in five straight games. He’s always hit right-handed pitching well, and opposing starter Nick Pivetta typically struggles against left-handed hitters (.343 wOBA, .199 ISO since 2018). In the nine times they have faced off, Conforto has taken Pivetta deep twice.
Jordan Luplow, Cleveland Indians
Luplow is on my list again, this time facing lefty J.A. Happ, who has been great this season. Since 2018, Happ is giving up a ton of fly balls (44.4%) and a lot of power (.205 ISO) to right-handed hitters. With six homers already this season, Luplow is on pace to smash his career high of 15.
StatHero sleeper
Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers
The future Hall of Famer still knows how to get it done, especially against left-handed pitching. Cabrera has not had a great start to the season but just went yard Tuesday night. Carlos Rodón has been excellent this season, but Cabrera has his number when they match up (7-12, 2B, 2 HR, 1.833 OPS). Don’t ignore the generational talent at just $7,500.
Roberto Pérez, Cleveland Indians
Another lefty killer from the Indians makes the list. He’s one of the cheapest options on StatHero at $7,000. Since 2018 Pérez is roughing up lefties with a .346 wOBA, .207 ISO, and 42% hard contact rate. All three of Pérez’s home runs this season have come against left-handed pitching.
DJ Stewart, Baltimore Orioles
More expensive than the two directly above but I have him as a sleeper due to his slow start. Domingo Germán has struggled this season, allowing nine earned runs in 13 innings, while giving up four long balls. Since 2018 against left-handed hitters, German is surrendering a .337 wOBA, .236 ISO and 43.2% fly ball rate. Combine these with Stewart’s .339 wOBA, .235 ISO, and whopping 47.7% fly ball rate, I like his chances to go deep.
Note: salaries change throughout the day as news and lineups come out.
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