Small Ball: Fantasy Baseball Game Theory: What I Got Wrong

If you log onto fantasy sports Twitter, there are many things you’ll see.

• Horrific takes
• Even more horrific takes
• Victory lapping
• Arguing over takes
• Well-informed takes
• Extremely well-informed takes

It’s probably in that exact order. There’s one bullet point I purposely left off the list. And it’s because I rarely, if ever, see people do this:

• Admit they’re wrong

It’s rare to see someone, especially with a large following, admit they were wrong. I’m sure you can see where this is going.

Before the MLB season started, I provided a ton of fantasy baseball content. I penned a blueprint on how to approach the Online Auction Championship. Then I wrote about specific ADP pockets of value and which players to target in those areas of the draft. Later, I discussed my general fades at ADP and targets at ADP. 

While I definitely nailed a handful of takes, I also had some doozies. So with full transparency in mind, I’d like to revisit some of those. We can only get better as fantasy analysts and fantasy baseball players if we learn to fix our mistakes from the past – or at least improve on them.

Digging into where you went wrong is an excellent way to improve your process, and in turn, decrease the likelihood of you making the same mistake in the future. However, this is still fantasy sports we’re talking about. Your process will never be perfect. You will whiff on players in next year’s draft. You will buy high on players like Luis Gil before his fall from grace. These things will happen. But the managers who make the fewest mistakes are often the ones hoisting the trophy at the end of the season.

So it’s time for me to showcase where I went wrong, how I feel about these takes now and what we can expect moving forward.

My Biggest Misses

Targets at ADP

This article, which I linked above, actually went quite well. However, I’d argue that my “Early-Round Pitching Target” of Luis Castillo hasn’t panned out. He was one of the top pitchers I was targeting in every draft. And right now, he’s sitting at a 7-9 record with a 3.72 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 11 strikeouts in 111.1 innings. Though he hasn’t killed you, if you took my advice there, there’s meat you left on the bone. Unfortunately, I wouldn’t expect much better from Castillo moving forward. His ground-ball rate is at an all-time low mark. That was a strength of his for years. His strikeout numbers are down near a career-low. That combination doesn’t inspire confidence. Sure, he could turn things around, but right now, Castillo is a miss.

Aside from that, the rest of my takes were solid. There were a few C- ones, though. Jesús Luzardo was an “Honorable Mention” mid-round value, along with George Springer. Meh. Anthony Rizzo was my late-round hero. He’s injured now, but his production wasn’t vaulting you to the top of the standings. 

Fades at ADP

My fades were a lot more damaging than my targets. And it started right at the beginning with José Ramírez as my top “Early-Round Fade.” Here’s what I wrote about Ramírez back in March:

“José Ramírez is on the cusp of being a first-round pick in 15-team leagues. I don’t care if he’s a first-rounder or second-rounder, I’m out on Ramirez. Perhaps that’s a bold thing to say, but let’s take a deeper look.

The 31-year-old has hit .255, .292, .266, .280 and .282 the past five seasons. Solid, but not Tony Gwynn.

In his last four non-pandemic seasons, he’s smacked 23, 36, 29 and 24 home runs with 83, 103, 126 and 80 RBIs. He safely will give you around 25 stolen bases (he stole 28 last year with the new rules). He’ll likely score a tad under 100 runs. Our VDP projections at FTN have him for .282 with 24 HR, 93 RBI, 92 R, 24 SB. That’s a nice season. He contributes across the board at solid, but not spectacular rates. And that’s fine. But I’d rather not draft a guy who’s “solid” in the first round (or early second).”

While I still believe it was the right call at the time, Ramírez is putting together one of the top seasons of his career. And the Guardians, as a team, have really turned up the offensive thermometer this season – creating an even better environment for their No. 3 hitter to succeed.

Entering Thursday’s action, Ramírez was hitting .275 with 23 homers, 77 RBIs, 70 runs scored and 18 stolen bags.

He’s on pace to crush the numbers I outlined above, and he’s been one of the most valuable players in all of fantasy baseball this season. And, like I said before, with the Cleveland offense clicking, you can expect Ramírez to keep contributing at a high level in all offensive categories in your league.

I also had Elly De La Cruz as an “Honorable Mention” early-round fade. That’s on me. I clearly underestimated the odds of him improving his bat-to-ball skills. And with the elite tools he already possesses, perhaps that was bad process on my part. Many players put together a second-year leap, and De La Cruz clearly has done just that. His tools were never the problem, and we knew his stolen-base equity would be elite. All he needed was some time to adjust to major league pitching to realize his full potential. I discounted the type of impact De La Cruz could have with just slight improvements to his approach. It’s something I should have been more open to in the offseason.

Things didn’t get much better in that article, as I also included Corbin Burnes as a bonus early-round fade. My knock on Burnes was a declining strikeout rate, higher walk rates and an increased HR/FB rate over the past two seasons. While the declining strikeout rate and double-digit HR/FB rates have stuck, Burnes has a 9-4 record with a 2.43 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 110 strikeouts in 118.2 innings, making him a worthwhile early-round investment. It’s another L from me, though I at least feel comfortable with my assessment in the preseason (unlike with De La Cruz). Moving forward, I also believe there could be some regression with Burnes. So if you’re in a league that does trades, he still remains a bit of a sell-high candidate, depending on what you could notch in return. It’s worth exploring.

The last mistake in this article was an honorable mention in the final paragraph. I said to fade Steven Kwan in the late rounds. We all knew Kwan would be one of the top sources of batting average in the preseason. We knew he’d be a reasonable source of runs and potentially stolen bases. While the stolen bases are actually way down, he’s hitting .361 (!!!!) with nine homers, 27 RBIs, 55 runs scored and four stolen bases. His power numbers are way up relative to his first two seasons, even with some time lost to injury. So if you took a stab at Kwan, hoping he’d increase his launch angle a bit along with his elite bat skills, then congratulations. That’s a high-upside move in the late rounds that I didn’t consider. Maybe it’s a Guardians thing for me. I clearly underestimated that entire squad.

Hitting the Pause Button

This article, admittedly, is a bit of a downer to write. Although it’s necessary, and I believe in transparency, it’s never easy to write about something that completely blows up in your face and leads people in the wrong direction. So for my own sanity, would it be okay for me to include something I got right in my fades article? I promise it will just take a second.

Lane Thomas, Washington Nationals

Hey! We got a fade right. Here’s what I had to say about Lane Thomas back in March:

“I’m sorry, what? Lane Thomas is going ahead of names like Ketel Marte, (Noelvi Marte as well if you like Martes), George Springer, Teoscar Hernández and Anthony Santander.

I just can’t do it. Thomas was a nice breakout story last year. Let someone else draft him and hope it happens again.”

Even in an article that was mostly an abject failure, the process yields some favorable results as long as you’re looking in the right places. In this case, just about every player I listed was a better draft pick than Thomas. The latter being injured part of the season certainly helped the case, but it wasn’t worth passing up on Ketel Marte, Santander, etc. Those guys have been absolute monsters.

Okay, now back to the failures.

Lindor over Seager/De La Cruz

In my first ADP pockets article, I argued that in their particular ADP pocket, I’d prefer to draft Francisco Lindor over Corey Seager and Elly De La Cruz. We already discussed why I missed on De La Cruz. So I won’t go in depth here. But it was still a mistake. While Lindor and Seager have both been productive, they’ve been “safer” selections that keep you in the hunt but won’t necessarily win your league. De La Cruz is doing the latter. And it was a blind spot of mine. However, I’ll note that based on metrics alone, it’s a bit head-scratching why De La Cruz is blowing away last year’s totals across the board with a similar K rate, similar hard-hit rate, similar xBA, similar BABIP and just a slightly better walk rate. Sometimes, you just have to credit the player for getting the most out of their skills, and that appears to be the case. 

Pablo López over George Kirby/Zac Gallen

This goes down as another miss – and it was included in my second ADP pockets article. On the surface, Pablo López over George Kirby was a mistake. Although Gallen has been hurt for a portion of the season, his numbers have also been better than López’. Though I’ll chalk this one up as a miss, I’m at least optimistic about the second half of the season if you made this selection and are still fighting atop your league standings. López has been one of the unluckiest pitchers this season, and his xERA and xFIP are both in the low 3s. So looking back, I definitely led fantasy managers astray, but this appears to be a case of bad variance. I wouldn’t change the process heading into next offseason. Based on metrics alone, there’s no reason for López to be pitching this poorly.

David Bednar over Raisel Iglesias/Jordan Romano

Bednar has struggled with injury and ineffectiveness all year. I argued that I believed Bednar’s numbers were more sustainable, and that I wasn’t worried about the Pirates’ projected win total versus the Braves’. By itself, Bednar’s 16 saves in 34 games versus Iglesias’ 21 saves in 35 games isn’t atrocious – and remember, Romano has been a disaster, so it wasn’t that bad of a move. 

This one puzzles me a bit, though. I didn’t foresee Bednar’s skills diminishing like they have. Perhaps the injuries have contributed to that. Though this isn’t a major L, and I don’t think it was necessarily a bad process, there’s one thing I’ve learned about closers. Don’t overspend. The year-to-year variance is at times unpredictable, and like I’ve discussed in previous articles in this series, you can find elite value in the saves category without breaking the bank or utilizing major draft capital. I’d like to focus on hitters, or at least more consistent starting pitchers, in that ADP pocket moving forward.

Final Thoughts

After doing a deep dive through all of my preseason articles (and some in-season articles), I’m happy to report there were still more hits than misses. If you don’t believe me, you can go through them yourself! But compared to last season, I noticed there were a few more misses than I would have liked. It’s why I decided to use this space to examine those errors. Thus far, I’m in contention in the majority of my leagues, so it somewhat falls in line with what I’d expect if I followed my own advice in the aggregate. But those who went against the grain to some extent (like with De La Cruz) are likely the ones competing for a top prize. 

Nevertheless, I’m always willing to be transparent whenever possible. There are decisions I’d like to have back, and I believe going through them one-by-one will help with accuracy on similar decisions down the line. The key is recognizing what constitutes a blatant error versus just poor variance. The latter are decisions you should repeat, as long as you believe in the process long-term. And most of us here at FTN have a track record of long-term success to back up the confidence you should exude in repeating those decisions.
 
That’s it for today. As always, share any questions, thoughts, concerns in our FTN Fantasy Baseball Discord.