Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We’re now just a week away from Opening Day of the 2021 MLB season, which means there are only seven days left to enter Underdog Fantasy’s best ball tournament. Just five bucks gets you in a game with a chance to potentially win $5,000. The unique scoring, positioning, and speed of the game create an opportunity for an edge over the field.
Below, I’ll be identifying critical players to fade in the Underdog player pool to help get you through the first round of the tournament. Don’t forget to check out our Underdog Cheat Sheet on FTN Fantasy for some of the stats behind the arguments.
(It's not too late to sign up for Underdog Fantasy for the 2021 MLB season. Promo code “FTN”)
Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, Los Angeles Dodgers (ADP 13)
Bellinger would generally fit the profile of an Underdog target, but I’m worried about his shoulder if it’s going to cost us a first-round pick. He separated his shoulder late in the playoffs last year and hasn’t looked the same since. He’s off to a really cold start this spring (2-15, 5 Ks), and until we see him show torque in his swing, I’m passing him over for more assured production. Rosters in this format are too shallow to get cute with early injuries.
Luis Robert, OF, Chicago White Sox (ADP 36)
The public is rushing to draft Robert early, and I’m holding the door for them. Yes, he’s exciting, but too many strikeouts, not enough walks, massive swing-and-miss stats, and the possibility of hitting late in the lineup are warning signs in this best ball format. We’ve seen the average and OPS floors that are associated with the holes in his profile and I’m not paying a premium for any risks.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B/3B, Toronto Blue Jays (ADP 37)
It’s always really tough for me to recommend fading a player I like this much, but it’s strictly business. The Underdog season-long tournament has a round of eliminations in July, so we can’t afford to be patient with things we have yet to see. As per the FTN Underdog Cheat Sheet, you’ll see that since 2019, Guerrero sticks out both in terms of total points (1435) and points per plate appearance (1.90). Vladito has an extremely low career .778 OPS. This particular format is predicated on OPS, the correlation is staggering (r=0.91 for players with at least 300 plate appearances). You have to draft Guerrero before Pete Alonso and José Abreu, and I can’t take that route with so little tolerance for error.
Shohei Ohtani, OF, Los Angeles Angels (ADP 135)
Ohtani is OF only in this format, which not only has shallow benches but a ticking clock. The opening round of the best ball tournament is decided by the All-Star Break, and we can’t afford to risk losing half the week’s plate appearances so he can pitch. Let the public chase the big names.
Victor Robles, OF, Washington Nationals (ADP 139)
This is a case of roto ADP not translating properly to a new format. There’s almost nothing about Robles’ game that fits into a successful Underdog strategy. A low on-base percentage and a low OPS without the possibility for major home run totals are a combination for disaster. Granted, he should get the plate appearances, but we still have to capitalize on them. Underdog is not a format for speedsters. Pass on Robles for more pop.
Dominic Smith, 1B/OF, New York Mets (ADP 162)
As much as I liked Smith coming up, and as excited as I was to see the breakout, we have to fade him here. Smith stands to lose a significant amount of plate appearances without a DH in the National League in 2021, assuming nothing changes between now and Opening Day. As if it wasn’t bad enough that there was already a crunch for playing time, the Mets also acquired Kevin Pillar. The front office said they’d be tightening up the defense late in games this year, and it’s very likely those lost ABs will be Smith’s. Underdog happens too fast to knowingly risk a single PA.
Every pitcher not named Jacob deGrom, Gerrit Cole or Shane Bieber
As I’ve detailed now in a few articles and on the FTN Network’s YouTube show “The Doghouse with Chris Meaney,” I’m taking a different roster path than most. The average player sees an 18-man roster, separated into three positions, and automatically balances them 6-6-6. Due to the disproportionate weight toward offense, I’m front-loading my draft board with bats. However, I will draft one of the three starters above in the first round, assuming Mike Trout and Juan Soto are gone. Aside from that specific scenario, I’m fading all pitchers until the offense is finished.
Even the best starters need to start twice a week to keep pace with elite hitters, which run out fast (especially with sharp FTN subs taking advantage of an edge). Lately, I’ve even been going so far as to fill my bench bats before drafting any pitchers. This allows me to only need five infielders and five outfielders as opposed to six. I now have eight pitchers to throw every week, hoping that three of them have two starts or at least one very good one.
There are some exceptions — I keep certain undervalued pitchers like Corbin Burnes and Chris Paddack circled — but as far as Underdog goes, offense is king. To win this tournament you will need top-end scores from all six offensive positions weekly and I think this is the way to do it.
Make sure to check out the cheat sheet and the rest of our fantasy baseball draft kit. Remember I welcome any and all interaction on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg.
