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Josh Gross
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Baseball season is upon us. After many months of uncertainty amidst the coronavirus pandemic, America's pasttime is back. With that comes daily fantasy baseball, precisely MLB DFS. For those unfamilar, this is the "On The Bump" column that has existed previously, but the same format will prevail here at FTNDaily. Something that is held near and dear to me when it comes to daily fantasy sports is a popular adage:
"Give a man a fish, he will eat for a day. But teach a man to fish and he will eat for a lifetime"
That is why this article aims to not only produce transparent picks for MLB DFS, but to teach my process of playing pitchers in MLB DFS. Statistics has been a love of mine since the beginning, and having learned the ability to combine that with knowledge of the sport of baseball presented a unique opportunity and I am proud to share that with you all. To date, across four years doing this column, I've tracked the stats of every pitcher recommended. So far: 778-542 (W-L), 3.62 ERA, 11,375.1 IP, 4,583 ER, 11,573 Ks.
Each weekday, I will go through my entire process of selecting pitchers for the MLB DFS slate at hand. You will learn why I like certain pitchers, why I do not, and why I prefer some pitchers for cash games and others for tournaments. Let's get into it!
Opening Day
Opening Day in 2020 brings a different sense, as it is happening July 23 this year rather than four months prior. With that said, it is still a small slate that features aces…as Opening Day usually brings. For this edition of On The Bump, we will go through each pitcher on the slate at hand and decide how to approach lineup construction. Let's get into it.
New York Yankees at Washington Nationals
Gerrit Cole (R) vs. Max Scherzer (R)
Gerrit Cole
DK: $10,000
FD: $11,400
Matchup: Washington Nationals vs. RHP
- .325 wOBA
- .184 ISO
- 21.5% K Rate
- 36.2% Hard-Hit Rate
Often with an active roster's stats (always use active roster stats!), I like to use the benchmarks of .320 wOBA, .170 ISO, 22% K Rate and 37% hard-hit rate or below, but with this season having a DH for all 30 teams, that benchmark will change a bit. With that being said, Cole is one of the few pitchers that is relatively unaffected by matchup, so we will want to look at pitch data.
Gerrit Cole Pitch Data
in 2019 w/ Houston
- 54% 4SM Fastball
- 15.5% Curve
- 23.1% Slider
- 7% Changeup
In 2019, the Nationals' active roster was 15th in baseball against the fastball, second-worst in baseball against the slider, but excelled against the curveball and changeup. This is a solid pitch-data matchup for Cole against a Nationals' roster that struggles with Cole's best pitch, his slider. Last season, opposing batters ended an at-bat with a slider 263 times. Batters hit just .179 with a .300 SLG and struck out 108 % of the time, a 41% strikeout rate. Finally, the Nationals are expected to have just three or four left-handed hitters at maximum, which is great news for Cole. Righties hit just .206 against his fastball last season, with a .347 SLG. Against the slider, right-handed batters notched just eight extra-base hits in 163 at-bats for a .172 average and a .270 SLG.
This is a good matchup for one of the premier arms in baseball, and given the lack of choices on Thursday night, he will be a chalky SP candidate on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Max Scherzer
DK: $8,600
FD: $10,700
Matchup: New York Yankees vs. RHP
- .350 wOBA
- .228 ISO
- 23.4% K Rate
- 39.3% Hard-Hit Rate
Like Cole, Scherzer is one of the top arms in baseball. With that said, the Yankees' lineup is very dangerous. With Scherzer though, the "weakness" is a glaring, but predictable one. Scherzer has relatively struggled in allowing power to left-handed batters. He allowed 11 HR and a .446 SLG to left-handed batters in just 75 IP last season, but absolutely dominated right-handers, giving up just seven round-trippers and allowing just a .307 SLG. So the question remains simple: How many right-handed batters will Scherzer see in the Yankees' lineup? Assuming everyone is healthy off the bat, the Yankees' only left-handed batters will be Aaron Hicks and Brett Gardner. That means seven right-handed batters are likely to be in the lineup against Scherzer. Despite the talented names like DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge and Gleyber Torres, Scherzer has been a dominant force against right-handed sticks. Let's look at pitch data.
Max Scherzer Pitch Data
in 2019
- 48.6% 4SM Fastball
- 7.46% Cutter
- 9% Curve
- 20.6% Slider
- 14.4% Changeup
There is no overwhelming number of pitches in terms of usage, but when you look at what Scherzer throws to right-handed batters, the story changes. Scherzer threw 39.5% sliders last season to righties, and opponents were only able to muster one home run and a .172 batting average with a .218 SLG. In 174 at-bats that ended with a slider last season, righties struck out 73 times for a 42% strikeout rate. Given the Yankees' likelihood of seven right-handed batters, the upside for strikeouts is clearly evident.
As a team, the Yankees hit the slider well…but looking deeper it is just three players: LeMahieu, Torres and Luke Voit. All three are right-handed, so we can clearly give the advantage to Scherzer given it is not a typical pitch.
With Cole and Clayton Kershaw on the slate, Scherzer is likely to be the third-highest owned pitcher in terms of ownership on most sites. Given that the slate is just two games, to win a tournament you will have to build unique lineups and Max Scherzer is likely to fit the bill here. Using starting pitchers against the Yankees is not advised often, but given the slate at hand, he is in play here, especially on DraftKings at his low price of $8,600. That will raise his ownership some on DraftKings, but with the Yankees being a popular offense on a four-pitcher slate, Scherzer will be lower-owned than he should be.
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers
Update: Kershaw has been scratched. Dustin May will start, and he is a fine play given the matchup. May is certainly a worthwhile play, and allows you to save some salary at SP on FanDuel to fit more powerful bats. On DraftKings, he is priced higher than Kershaw, so it is a wash.
Johnny Cueto (R) vs. Clayton Kershaw (L)
Johnny Cueto
DK: $5,000
FD: $6,600
Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. RHP
- .356 wOBA
- .236 ISO
- 20.2% K Rate
- 43.2% Hard-Hit Rate
The Dodgers truly have the best offense in the majors on paper for 2020, and adding the DH just makes them more lethal. It's no surprise that Dodgers hitters will be the chalk Thursday night, as they are the top offense facing one of the easiest targets across all Opening Day games. Cueto is simply not the pitcher he used to be and is not a recommended option for anyone unless you choose to enter a large amount of lineups and would like to hedge. On this two-game slate, Cueto will be the lowest-owned pitcher and the majority of lineups will be built with at least three Dodgers hitters. That alone would make Cueto a leverage play, but only if you are playing a significant amount of lineups. Our own Javi Prellezo has thoughts on hedging on short slates that he has used with success for Esports DFS. The same rule holds true here. I only recommend using Cueto on Opening Day if you are hedging your own lineups and playing against the chalk.
For the sake of research, Cueto is 34 years old and has only thrown 69 innings since 2017 ended. The Dodgers have terrific pitch data numbers against all pitches besides the cutter, which Cueto has not thrown since 2016. The only reason to use Cueto on Thursday would be to hedge, as mentioned before. For example, if you build five lineups you would have just one with Cueto in it to hedge against your Dodgers' hitters.
Clayton Kershaw
DK: $7,700
FD: $10,300
Matchup: San Francisco Giants vs. LHP
- .317 wOBA
- .159 ISO
- 23.4% K Rate
- 41.6% Hard-Hit Rate
Using the aforementioned benchmarks of .320 wOBA, .170 ISO, 22% K Rate and 37% hard-hit rate or below, this hits on a few cylinders. Even with the addition of the DH, the Giants' lineup is not projected to be scary in any facet. Kershaw is one of the top left-handed pitchers in the National League and held both lefties and righties to under a .400 SLG last season, while carrying a strikeout rate of 25.5% and 27.1% against lefties and righties, respectively.
Clayton Kershaw Pitch Data
in 2019
- 43.4% 4SM Fastball
- 16.2% Curve
- 39.7% Slider
Last season, the Giants' current active roster ranked 27th in all of baseball against the fastball, cumulatively. In addition, they struggled against the slider. That means that nearly 85% of the pitches that Kershaw throws, his opponent struggles with, in a nutshell. The one worry with Kershaw has always been workload, especially early in the season. With that said, in his first start last season Kershaw faced 24 batters and completed seven innings. Reports are that he has been stretched out in scrimmages and "summer camp" as well, throwing 90 pitches in his latest outing. I will be using Kershaw on DraftKings for sure, and he's the likely "safest" option in cash games, too. With that said, playing cash on short slates can get tricky. That's a story for another day, of course!
I am so happy, along with all of us at FTNDaily, that baseball is back. While this column for Opening Day is free, "On The Bump" will be paywalled going forward.
