MLB Best Bets for Wednesday (9/22)

It’s been quite the see-saw of outcomes for the MLB Best Bets columns as we’ve alternated wins and losses over our past couple of picks. Most recently, Toronto fell victim to Tampa Bay over the first five innings in an absolutely brutal beat. With a 2-0 lead and Robbie Ray on the mound, Toronto proceeds to let up two infield singles with one out and then Yandy Díaz does us in with a three-run blast and, poof, just like that Tampa Bay had walked off with a first five inning victory. 

As always in MLB betting though, we turn the page quickly and look to the next slate to get rolling again. We have 15 games to sift through Wednesday, with a few matinee matchups sprinkled in so we’re in for a full 12 hours of baseball action. With my favorite under trend seemingly in play, it should be no surprise as to which game I’m planning on targeting.

Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs

Minnesota -105, Caesars Sportsbook; Chicago -105, Caesars Sportsbook

Minnesota and Chicago will be wrapping up a quick two-game series between a couple of cellar dwellers Wednesday afternoon at Wrigley Field. Rookie Joe Ryan will get the start for Minnesota to face off against Chicago soft-tosser Kyle Hendricks.

Joe Ryan came into the year as the 10th-ranked prospect in Minnesota’s organization and hasn’t disappointed yet. It’s been a small sample size, but through three starts and 17 innings he’s pitched extremely well checking in with a 2.12 ERA and a 3.40 FIP. Now don’t get me wrong, he has been outrageously lucky so far with just a .119 BABIP and a 7.4% HR/FB ratio, but he’s so far shown to have the innate ability of avoiding hard contact with just a 27.3% hard hit rate and an 87.9 mph average exit velocity. Ryan has a four-pitch arsenal that he utilizes throwing a four-seamer (64.7%), changeup (11.6%), slider (15.4%) and curveball (8.3%), all of which Chicago is below average as a team against. Normally, a pitcher with a 61% flyball rate wouldn’t be someone I’d expect to keep an offense quiet, but there’s expected to be winds north of 20 mph blowing almost directly in from centerfield. With Ryan inducing so much soft contact in the air, this may be the one scenario where I’d prefer a flyball pitcher to groundball while targeting the under. 

Despite being in fifth place in the AL Central, Minnesota’s offense ranks just outside the top 10 in most splits, albeit ranking essentially average with nearly a .320 wOBA and 100 wRC+ across the board. They had been one of the better lineups in the league for a good part of the season, but lately their production has started to waver. With just a .299 wOBA and 88 wRC+, they check in with a bottom-10 offense over the last 30 days while getting progressively worse over the last 14 (.287 wOBA, 80 wRC+) and the last seven (.275 wOBA, 73 wRC+). A cause for concern on top of their recent struggles, is that they really struggle against Hendricks’s arsenal. They have the seventh-worst offense against sinkers, which Hendricks throws 41.8% of the time, and the fourth worst against changeups, with Hendricks throwing one 28.2% of the time. Minnesota also has the 10th-highest FB% over the past week, which should play in our favor in a bad matchup for them at a stadium where the wind should be howling in. 

Hendricks’ 4.81 ERA and 4.91 FIP through 30 starts and 170.1 innings is a far cry from the 2.88 ERA and 3.55 FIP he put up in last year’s shortened campaign. He’s seen his performance dip drastically and his control waver compared to past years. He’s allowing a career-high 1.53 HR/9 on the season while issuing his second-most 2.27 BB/9 of his career. While his results may be disappointing compared to what we’ve seen from Hendricks in the past, he’s still shown the elite ability to limit hard contact with a hard hit rate in the top 10% of major league pitching and an average exit velocity within the top 7%. Also, in Hendricks’ favor in this one is his arsenal. I touched on it a little talking about Minnesota’s offense, but Hendricks’ two main pitches have been the Achilles heel of Minnesota’s lineup this season. To reiterate, he throws his changeup 28.2% of pitches, the fourth-highest mark in the league, and his sinker 41.8% of pitches, the third-highest mark in the league. Not only is Hendricks a terrible matchup for Minnesota’s hitters, he’s going to be feeding them a healthy amount of their worst two pitches all day long.

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Despite their 2-8 record over their last ten games, Chicago’s offense yet again appears to be defying the odds. Over their last 30 days, they’ve regained a near top-10 offensive spot, with a .332 wOBA and 106 wRC+, over their last 14 they’ve put up and average .321 wOBA and 100 wRC+, but over their last seven they’ve exploded for a .356 wOBA and 121 wRC+, ranking just outside the top five during that span. Still, I don’t care how well they perform offensively, I refuse to believe this is a good lineup. Along with their surprising offensive production, however, again comes an inflated BABIP and HR/FB. Their .328 BABIP is tied for the fifth highest over the past week and when you couple that with a league-leading 23.5% HR/FB ratio, it’s no wonder that they’re putting up these gaudy offensive marks. As I’ve said so many times before, the regression monster fears nobody and an overperforming bunch like this would be easy prey. In terms of the matchup, Ryan might also cause some trouble for Chicago’s hitters as they rank below average facing all four pitch types that he throws. I’m never looking for Chicago to score many runs, but with all of the different factors at play in this one it’s particularly difficult to see them put up a crooked number.

The pick

As with so many other times before, I’m following the windy Wrigley Field under trend here. The wind is expected to be howling in at up to 24 mph from left-center, both starting pitchers’ arsenals are terrible matchups for the respective offense, Minnesota has been terrible lately, and Chicago is primed for some regression. If that’s not the recipe for an under then I don’t know what is. The line is a little lower than I’d typically like to play, but with these gale force gusts it’s hard to pass up. u7.5 -115 DraftKings Sportsbook