MLB Best Bets for Wednesday (9/15)

And just like, that we’re back to our winning ways. San Francisco exploded for a five-run bottom of the first against Yu Darvish and the San Diego Padres and never looked back to give us a nice sweat-free cash of the San Francisco money line. The win brings the MLB Best Bets’ season record to 50-44, +15.81u and a juicy 13.4% ROI. 

Wednesday’s Roberto Clemente Day slate brings us yet another full 15-game slate to sift through in order to identify value and find a game to reinvest our winnings in. We’ll look to build off Monday’s win here and luckily after six straight bets, we finally have an article that doesn’t include San Francisco or the Chicago Cubs.

New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles

New York -179, Caesars Sportsbook; Baltimore +162, Caesars Sportsbook

New York and Baltimore will bump heads again at Camden Yards for Game 2 of their current three-game series after New York took Game 1 by a score of 7-2. We’ll have some lefty-on-lefty crime in this one with New York sending out Nestor Cortes Jr. to battle against Baltimore southpaw John Means.

For the reputation that New York’s franchise has as the Bronx Bombers, their offense has been slightly underwhelming this season. They rank in the middle of the pack with average marks in both wOBA (.316) and wRC+ (100) with an ISO that ranks in the bottom half of the league. They do happen to have somewhat distinguished splits and, luckily for them, they happen to be on the good side of both of them in this matchup. Against righties they check in as just a slightly below average team, but when facing left-handers, they have an offense that’s just outside of the top five, putting up a .328 wOBA, 109 wRC+, with one of the league’s highest BB% (10.3%, second). At home, they’ve surprisingly been a borderline bottom-10 offense, being able to scratch out just a .313 wOBA and 98 wRC+, but on the road they’ve been a powerhouse. Away from Yankee Stadium this season, New York has been a top-five offensive unit in the league with a .319 wOBA, 102 wRC+, 9.6% BB% (second), and 0.4 BB/K (sixth). For as mundane a group as they have been for the majority of the season, they do seem to have been putting it together recently. Over the last 30 (.321 wOBA & 104 wRC+) and seven days (.349 wOBA & 123 wRC+) they’ve been a top-10 offense and even that production has come with a low .273 BABIP over their last 30 and a remarkably low .258 BABIP over their last seven. New York has been hit by fairly bad luck all year, but it seems like the regression monster is finally making its way around to them and facing a pitching staff like Baltimore’s can always help solve any offensive woes.

Nestor Cortes Jr. has been quite the quirky guy on the mound at times for New York, but that hasn’t stopped him from putting up solid marks of a 2.70 ERA and 3.80 FIP over the course of 18 appearances (10 starts) and 73.1 innings. Like his offense though, he too has had some larger splits than you’d like to see. He’s been solid at home and against lefthanded batters, but both on the road and facing right-handers his FIP increases to north of 4.00. His last eight appearances for New York have all been starts, putting up a 3.15 ERA over that span, but he’s been very lucky to have pitched that well given his FIP over the same period is sitting at 4.74. He’s been a solid starter for New York thus far, but the gap between his ERA and FIP recently does give me some cause for concern that he’ll be able to limit this Baltimore offense to only a run or two.

Baltimore’s offense may be the exact opposite situation as New York, where the average fan would assume since they’re a bad team that they have a bad lineup as well. Surprisingly, that’s not necessarily true, at least at home and facing lefties. They do have just a .307 wOBA and 94 wRC+ on the season, but like New York’s offense, they have heavy splits that give them an advantage in this matchup. Facing righties, Baltimore has been abysmal, ranking in the bottom-10 of the majors with a .297 wOBA and 88 wRC+. Flip the script to lefties, and you suddenly have the 7th-best offense on the year putting up a .326 wOBA and 107 wRC+. If that’s not drastic enough, we’ll look at home/road splits. On the road they’ve been one of the four worst offenses in the majors, being able to produce just a .285 wOBA and 79 wRC+, but in the confines of Camden Yards, they magically jump to the 9th-best group in the majors with a .330 wOBA and 109 wRC+. Oh, you want more good offensive Baltimore stats? Even over the last 30, 14 and 7 days they’ve ranked in or just outside of the top-10 during each timeframe, all with sub-.300 BABIPs. Baltimore’s offense is a very hot and cold bunch, but in this matchup, they have both of their extreme splits in their favor.

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New York’s offense, Baltimore’s offense and Cortes have all have had pretty identifiable splits in this game, so why would John Means be any different? Means was pitching great, albeit with some good luck, before he hit the IL with a 2.28 ERA and an inflated 4.19 FIP over the course of his first 12 starts. In his 10 starts since returning from the IL, he’s gotten smacked around for a 4.88 ERA to go along with a 5.06 FIP allowing almost 2 HR/9. On top of the bad first-/second-half splits, he’s been brutal at home as well allowing a .339 wOBA to opposing hitters with a sky-high 5.60 FIP. At home facing right-handed batters, his numbers get even worse and balloon up to a .344 wOBA against and a catastrophic 6.21 FIP, certainly not great facing a lineup with the likes of Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Luke Voit and DJ LeMahieu. Means is a far cry from the starter he was to begin the season and I just don’t see him being able to keep this New York offense quiet in this one.

The pick

This game has the ingredients for some runs with two offenses on the right side of their splits and two starters on the bad side of their splits. New York has been heating up lately and knocked in seven runs yesterday against Alexander Wells, another Baltimore lefty, and Baltimore has flown under the radar all year against lefties and at home quietly putting up top-10 marks in both. I’m expecting a little more help from New York’s side, hoping at least one of Judge, Stanton or Voit can go deep again, but I still feel pretty confident that Baltimore can plate a few themselves in this one. Give me the over here. o10 +105, F5 o5 -115 BetMGM