Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Just like we hoped for, the MLB Best Bets writeups carried over last week’s success into a new week. Chicago dominated Minnesota Monday, winning 11-1, cashed their team total over within the first 1.1 innings, and cashed their F5RL by a solid 7.5 runs. We’re up a phenomenal 12u over the past few articles, going 8-0 in that span and trying to make it a double-digit undefeated streak.
Wednesday’s slate offers us our usual handful of afternoon getaway games, with 15 games total on the slate to scour through and find value on. I’ll touch upon which angles have the best prices to take advantage of for the board and look to keep the profits rolling in.
Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres
Marlins +145 Unibet, Padres -154 Caesars Sportsbook
Miami and San Diego will wrap up a three-game series in America’s Finest City, with Miami trying to salvage Game 3 and avoid the sweep. Opening Day starter, Sandy Alcantara, will get the nod for Miami, while rookie southpaw Ryan Weathers toes the rubber for the home squad.
Sandy Alcantara is following up his fantastic 2020 season with another great statline so far this year. He’s only 6-10 on the season, largely due to being on a bad team, but he’s posted a 3.70 ERA and 3.86 FIP over his 23 starts. Colorado absolutely torched him in his last start, allowing 10 ER in just 3.2 IP (and what opposing pitcher has pitched well in Colorado this year?), but prior to that he was on a 10-start span posting a 2.48 ERA with a 3.35 FIP. His xWOBA, xERA and barrel rate are all within the top 30% of the league and he’s been great at inducing soft contact with just an 87.3mpg average exit velocity (top 15%). Alcantara’s arsenal consists of an impressive five pitches (four-seamer, sinker, changeup, slider, and curveball), but he heavily relies on his sinker and changeup throwing the combo 56% of the time. This one-two punch could prove to be deadly for him, as San Diego’s bats are below average against both pitches, ranking 13th against sinkers and a lowly 25th against changeups. He’s been hit or miss on the road this year, but in a pitcher’s park with two plus pitches that the opposing hitters are subpar against, this could be one of his successful road starts.
(Join FTNBets with our Early Bird NFL package!)
Look, I won’t sugarcoat it for you, Miami’s offense is bad. They have a .287 wOBa and 82 wRC+ facing lefties so far this season, and on the road, they’ve been equally terrible, with marks of just .295 and, again, 82. For what they lack in skill at the plate, though, they make up with skill on the basepaths. They’re second in the league in stolen bases, have speed through the lineup to stay out of double plays (61 GIDP ranks third lowest), and are constantly keeping defenses on their toes. Speaking of defense, something criminally undervalued by most bettors, Miami has the fourth-most defensive runs saved in the league. They’re a team built with a pitching staff to keep opposing hitters at bay, a defense that doesn’t give away extra outs, and an offense just good enough to push across a couple runs. Miami’s recipe for wins is coming away with the low scoring games and this one could be just that.
Ryan Weathers, notable for his outlandish high school stats where he went 8-0 with a 0.14 ERA and 111 K’s in 49 IP during his junior year, has not been quite as dominant in the majors. He’s been roughed up a little with a 4.26 ERA and a FIP just north of 5.00 and, shockingly, it’s been at home where he’s allowed most of the damage with a .366 wOBA allowed and a 5.38 FIP. Weathers just had his world rocked at home by Arizona of all teams, giving him a 7.13 ERA and a 6.23 FIP over his last eight starts (18.00 ERA and 9.60 FIP over his last two starts). Six of Miami’s eight position players bat from the right side (seven total if you want to include Alcantara), which could pose a lot of trouble for Weathers since he really struggles against right-handed batters getting lit up for a .345 wOBA and a 5.60 FIP. As a starter, he’s struggled mightily on the year with a 5.33 FIP and typically has gotten his hard early and often, allowing a .347 wOBA with a 4.91 FIP the first time through the order. Weathers showed some promise out of the bullpen early, but I’m looking for his struggles to continue in this one.
Even with Fernando Tatis Jr. on the shelf, San Diego continues to be one of the better lineups in the major leagues. While their .323 wOBA and 103 wRC+ against righties suggest that they’re just about an average team, they actually rank 10th and ninth, respectively, out of all 30 teams. Over the last 30 days, they’ve turned up the production even more with a scorching .345 wOBA and 117 wRC+ over that span, which I’ll admit is absolutely intimidating, but they’ve done it with a bewilderingly high .333 BABIP that has been the highest in the league by 15 points (the same margin of distance between the second- and 10th-ranked teams). What’s even more shocking is that their BABIP has risen over the past two weeks with a .348 mark over the last 14 days and .351 over the last 7. What goes up must come down and with BABIP marks that outrageously high they’re due to come crashing down at any point. San Diego is due for a little negative regression which isn’t great news for them with how Ryan Weathers has been pitching.
The pick
I’m leaning toward the dog in this matchup. Miami’s bats have been quiet, but the pitching advantage certainly seems to be leaning towards the road team here. Weathers ranks in the bottom 20% of the league in average exit velocity, hard hit rate, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG and K% with no signs of positive regression coming his way. Meanwhile, Alcantara’s been on a pretty spectacular 10-start run himself (excluding the last Colorado start outlier) with a 2.48 ERA and 3.35 FIP with no signs of negative regression to come. Give me the city that keeps the roof blazin’ in this one. Miami F5RL (+.5) -110 & FG +147 Unibet.
