NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
Welcome to Groovin’ With Govier! It is my hope that you will find this article an enjoyable read. I also have a promo code for you if you want to sign up for any of our useful subscriptions we have here at FTN Fantasy, Daily or Bets. If you love betting on MLB props or team plays, you can ride my coattails to glory with our transparent FTN Bets Tracker! Winners await you by just typing in my promo code “MJGOVIER” where you will save some dough on our unbeatable subscription packages!
It is my ultimate goal for you to absorb and apply winning fantasy baseball wisdom from each edition of Groovin’ With Govier. It’s similar to when Neo was offered the blue or the red pill. If you continue reading this, you will see how far down the rabbit hole my fantasy baseball analysis can go. That means each Monday, I’ll be reborn like the current version of Elvis Andrus with the White Sox so you can close out your league with that first-place payday!
Word Around The Campfire Is…
Walk It Like I Talk It
If you’re really going to take Julio Rodríguez in the first round in 2023, why wouldn’t you take Yordan Alvarez as well? It’s not really news that Yordan is mashing this week. His three-dong night on Friday helped him to rack up six yambos over the last seven days. Now let me beat you to the punch with the steals bit. Julio will blow Yordan away in swipes every single season they’re in the league together. It’s a no-brainer. And no stat in standard 5×5 is tougher to predict than the SB.
Yet, there are so few certainties year to year in the game of fantasy baseball. Sure, we can always count on Sandy Alcantara pitching 200 innings or that Byron Buxton will have a stint on the IL. Yordan being good for 35 dongs with a minimum .300/.450/.650 triple slash is also becoming one of those certainties. Just consider Juan Soto, Ronald Acuna and Fernando Tatis Jr. in 2022 alone. Julio Rodríguez is the future of baseball. He is likely the promised future king of the diamond. This game will humble players, though. Yordan is a little more polished and established in what his prognosis is going forward. As you think about your 2023 draft prep, which for some of you is right around the corner (Yes I’m talking about you Zack), having a foundation of certainty in the early rounds is more important than hitting a moonshot pick early on.
Save your riskier, ride-or-die plays for the later rounds. Those are the same rounds where you would have gotten the still-yet-to-produce-in-The-Show Julio Rodríguez this year! That’s my philosophy in redraft. Stability now, dream a little dream later. I think Yordan Alvarez (draft stolen bases early debate aside) fits that model for me in 2023. You should consider that notion too. By the way, if this is the case with Yordan, then Mike Trout would also fit certain aspects of this criteria, though his reliability is more suspect than Yordan’s.
Can I Have The Room For A Minute?
It’s over for me in my 14-team home league H2H cats final. I lost. Mike Trout giveth and Mike Trout taketh away. You know what will really chap your ass? Starting two pitchers who each struck out 11 hitters (Nick Lodolo and Lance McCullers Jr.) while neither of them secured a win. It’s similar to the way Chandler always felt after he hooked up with Janice. Sure it seems like a good idea at the time, but then he’s left with that sinking feeling once again. This is the way. Instead of moping or being bitter that I lost out on a fourth title in that league, I would like to analyze what went wrong here in hopes of helping you look inward so you can see what choices you made or failed to make.
We have 100 player adds allowed in our regular season. I can use them at any time. Once I hit 100, I’m tapped. I won’t rehash all my moves, but there are a couple I recall specifically. Giving up Chris Sale and Luis García (WAS) for Nate Lowe and Garrett Whitlock in a package deal at the trade deadline was one of them. The trade was excellent. However, keeping Joey Votto while dropping Lowe 10 days after acquiring him was not wise. Lowe has a 210 wRC+ since August 1. That hurts! In another deadline deal, I gave up Daulton Varsho and Nick Pratto (plus draft picks for 2023) for Jonathan India and Nick Lodolo. At the time, I didn’t know Lodolo would be the gem of that deal. He was kind of a throw-in similar to David Ortiz when he was traded to Minnesota so the Mariners could have…Dave Hollins. Oof. I sacrificed Varsho because I had Alejandro Kirk. That turned out to be a bummer because Kirk’s last dong was August 31. That was his only homer in August.
Meanwhile, since August 26, Varsho has eight yambos, 2 SB 15 runs, 12 RBI and a healthy 185 wRC+. Why that trade is lamer than Buzz Killington spinning a yarn has to do with roster construction. Pay attention now, because this is for you. If India was the centerpiece, then I should have focused on a different player because I already had Jorge Polanco, Jean Segura and Gleyber Torres able to play 2B. Varsho’s value relative to his catcher designation makes him even more scarce, plus he has OF eligibility which means I could play Kirk and Varsho if I needed an OF in a pinch. When you try to improve your team, don’t try to add a player who’s higher in the overall rankings that you obsess over constantly courtesy of your favorite fantasy baseball podcast.
Weighing positional scarcity plus statistical needs in that moment and for upcoming playoff matches is all about gaining specific edges in the categories you need. There are comparative markers for progress in my home league management as well. I was able to cut bait on many more players than I did in 2021, which was a season I finished last in. Last year I held onto Nick Solak, Nick Senzel and others too long hoping they would suddenly bust loose one week.
Actually, it was more about FOMO than anything. I wanted those players to be on my roster when they took flight. Honestly, it was probably just too much fear-driven ego and not enough game theory. In the final analysis, you can have a good team and still lose in the H2H playoffs. When it’s all said and done, there can be only one. Congratulations to Travis on being the first-ever four-time Bless You Boys champ!
Screenshots
Edward Olivares – Apparently the much-traveled KC outfielder has returned to the team. I’m shocked! I shouldn’t be though. Kansas City must have a secret sauce. They bring their boys back faster than a USO show ever could. Fellow teammate Salvador Perez blew past the timeline for his thumb injury. In fact, maybe MLB teams are being too cautious with their timelines, because I can think of a couple other players like Freddy Peralta or Bryce Harper who came back much sooner than their original return dates. Anyways, Olivares is back and I love him so much! He can do it all. The problem is the Royals don’t seem down with playing him everyday. It’s bogus.
Domingo Acevedo – If I think back to the early beginnings of 2022, when the CBA was still a pipe dream, my memory flashes a name in bright lights on a neon screen just like Dirk Diggler in Boogie Night. It says Domingo Acevedo will be the closer eventually in Oakland. The reference point is a tweet by data wizard Alex Chamberlain. This was a random tweet on a random day around the start of the season. Knowing that Lou Trivino would be traded eventually, I was pondering who might be the heir apparent for the A’s.
There were a few contenders along the way, but Acevedo is currently in control of the closer board for Oakland. Acevedo has two saves over the last five days. His K rate is dismal, but he’s able to keep the walks under control. It’s especially notable because of his 6-foot-7, 240-pound frame. As my guy Benjamin Chase always likes to say, taller pitchers struggle to maintain the same mechanics as the game wears on, making them more susceptible the second or third time through the order. Acevedo doesn’t need to worry about that. You should worry that he doesn’t have an out pitch right now to be a reliable closer. I liked Acevedo’s profile as the closer for Oakland coming into 2022, but if you’re relying on him this week, please heed my warning.
Adbert Alzolay – Speaking of injuries, Alzolay did not beat his marker to return from the IL. He’s been on it all season until this past weekend when he finally took the mound. My main man fired off seven swinging strikes in two innings of work while striking out five. He’s a guy who I have been patiently anticipating his return. His slider is so damn good! It’s one of my favorite pitches in MLB! He locked in a 37% whiff rate with his slider in 2021. Statcast, however, didn’t have him throwing a single one in his two innings against the Rockies over the weekend. The Cubs also plan to use him out of the bullpen over the last two weeks of 2022. If you play in leagues that use K/9 or holds, he’s a must-add option. Even in roto or H2H, he can snag a couple wins while racking up the Ks.
Jorge Polanco – I type these words with great sadness. I am NOT a doctor. I only played one on a Netflix series nobody saw in 2014. What I do know, though, is Polanco’s prognosis seems cloudy. He was pulled from a rehab stint over the weekend with continued challenges related to that bogus knee of his. With the Twins running out of time to make the playoffs, it certainly feels like Polanco will not be of service ROS. Even if he does return, how effective can he be? He hits from both sides (14 of his 16 dongs are left handed), but that left knee support may struggle even if he goes lefty. I’m bailing on Polanco helping me out for the rest of 2022.
Yoán Moncada – So right off the bat, this Screenshot is for all my Moncada ride-or-die partners who have been chasing the Moncada light from the moment they first noticed his broad shoulders in Single-A ball. Our unrequited love for Moncada will only no doubt intensify going forward. He has two straight games with a SB! FOR REAL?! Tony LaRussa checks into the hospital and now Moncada is feeling himself like it’s 2019 all over again?! Who is the more frustrating love of your fantasy baseball life: Yoán Moncada or Byron Buxton?
Since coming back from the IL September 6, Moncada is showing more power with a .261 ISO and a 163 wRC+. I prefer larger sample sizes for wRC+, but that doesn’t matter right now. All I need to know from my fellow Moncada Martyrs is this: Did you hold onto him to enjoy the fruits of his labor, or are you pondering the Moncada add to your team at this very moment? It’s either one or the other. Don’t play dumb. I know I scooped him back up Sunday evening in any FAAB I could find him. I’m not missing out on quality Moncada appearances to close out 2022. No way!
Zach McKinstry – Over on the north side of town, the Cubbies are playing this former Dodger regularly in their leadoff position. With Rafael Ortega’s season in the can due to a fractured finger, there is an opening atop a flawed, but useful lineup. The Cubs have seven games this week all on the road (MIA, PIT). McKinstry does seem to sit against LHP, as he sat against David Peterson of the Mets last week. Jesús Luzardo is the only current probable southpaw on the docket to face Chicago. It’s crunch time, and you likely need plate appearances more than anything else. Have faith in Minister McKinstry. Serve at the altar of the leadoff man.
