Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Get into the groove right now, as I take you under the hood of the latest focal points of note in MLB! Welcome to Groovin’ With Govier! It is my hope that you will find this article an enjoyable read. I also have a promo code for you if you want to sign up for any of our useful subscriptions we have here at FTN Fantasy, Daily or Bets.
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If you continue reading this, you will see how far down the rabbit hole my fantasy baseball analysis can go. That means each Monday, you actively select myself as your captain as we set sail together on the high seas of fantasy baseball toward your ultimate prize … a league championship. If you will it, it is no dream.
The Boys Of Summer
I’ll Tumble For Ya
When I share tales from my home league, it’s not ego-trippin’. I use it as a basis to find common ground for the similar issues that you all see in your fantasy baseball leagues across the globe. As a refresher, BYB (Bless You Boys) is a 14-team H2H cats 5×5 with OBP instead of AVG along with eight keepers. There are two divisions for some reason, even though we don’t fly across the country or even regionally to play our opponents. Anyways, this week is the final week of our regular season. The six-team playoffs starts on August 29. We are one of those leagues that prefer to wrap it up by the middle of September to avoid any possible end-of-season benching of players or periods of rest prior to the playoffs. I had been leading my division by at least 11 games as recently as two weeks ago. Since then, I have tumbled down in the standings with my guy Sandy Alcantara cementing my tumble into second place in my division. At 4 PM ET Sunday, I was up 5-4 in the matchup with Wins, Ks and ERA in my favor. My opponent had José Urquidy in line for the win in Atlanta, as the Astros took the lead in the top of the eighth inning. At worst, my opponent was going to tie me in wins. I had NL Cy Young frontrunner Sandy Alcantara though! Yes he was pitching at the Dodgers, but good pitching defeats good hitting, no? I also was feeling the pressure of the second-place team behind me rolling in his matchup 9-0. In the end, Sandy had one of his worst starts of the season giving up 6 ER on 10 hits, skyrocketing his ERA up to 2.19 for the season. I share this tale to remind you not to be greedy in H2H cats. The manner in which you would handle this predicament will likely reveal a lot about your personality. Would you have started Alcantara in my position? We all know the old bit about hindsight, but right now I kind of wish I had an eccentric friend with a time traveling DeLorean.
The Curious Case of Eduardo Rodriguez
Recall a time when somebody completely ghosted you. Consider the emotions that gnawed at you despite your best intentions to plow forward. Are you starting to recall anything yet? I certainly am. Now I kind of wish I hadn’t chosen this particular avenue for this subject. How I am feeling as I write this has to be similar to the frustration former Tigers GM Al Avila felt when Eduardo Rodriguez would not return any calls from the Tigers for five weeks. Rodriguez going AWOL has to be in the conversation for one of the all-time most baffling developments for MLB in-season. Yoenis Céspedes not showing up for the Mets in 2020 gives Rodriguez a run for his money too. All this to say I would have paid top dollar to be there when Rodriguez first made his return to the clubhouse. I imagine it’s similar to that scene in Get Out when LaKeith Stanfield’s character flips the script on Chris (Daniel Kaluuya) after he takes his photo. If I’m even halfway close to the reality of Rodriguez’s initial return, Sunday’s performance speaks volumes about his mental fortitude. He outdueled Shohei Ohtani the pitcher to secure the win. Rodriguez went 5 IP with 4 hits and 3 BB. He was only able to induce four whiffs, but a 26% CSW helped him reach five Ks on the day. The hardest part for Rodriguez is over. The Tigers are horrible. They’re only playing for their paychecks now. I tried to add E-Rod in FAAB on previous Sundays, not last night. I was able to add him for $6 a couple weeks ago in my Main Event. I’m also starving for Ks in that league with only $13 left in my FAAB. Bottom line is, Rodriguez is now their staff ace since everybody else is hurt. Expectations should be fairly high for output ROS.
That’s A Fugazi
There was a point just over two months ago when I was crushed because one of my Main Event league rivals outbid me for Luis García of the Nationals in FAAB. For a moment, I thought I had lost out on an undervalued player who could fill a hole in my middle infield spot. Now, I feel fortunate that I didn’t get the guy I really wanted. Garcia still has a ceiling that is enticing along with a floor that also inspires excitement due to his ability to make consistent contact. Another example of best intentions going awry relates to Atlanta 2B Ozzie Albies. Well-known fantasy baseball aficionado Paul Sporer and I sat next to each other at the 14/15 spot for our live NFBC Main Event draft back in March at the Bellagio in Las Vegas. Right off the bat in Round One, I sniped Paul by taking Ozzie Albies with pick 14, sending Sporer into a frenzy of frustration because Paul made it no secret that he had been jonesing to draft Albies. I grinned with glee while smirking and razzing him a bit because Paul has a great sense of humor about these things. Well, that smirk is a distant memory today, as you probably are aware of how the 2022 season has gone for Albies. SPOILER ALERT: Albies broke his foot. So what is one to make of these unfortunate tales of fantasy woe? Well, sometimes the player you are confident in bringing about fantasy glory is just a fugazi. But often, the only way to know that for sure is to go through the unfortunate disappointment yourself. When this happens, I advise you to fire up Break Stuff and just let that angst out of your system.
Wild Card
Right now, the world of baseball is in a state of shock. The master of his closing craft, Josh Hader, is no longer special. He’s been covered ad nauseam lately, so I’m not here to dive deep into these mechanical troubles. He isn’t past his prime by any means. He is likely hiding an injury while he pitches hurt, yet thinks he can persevere through it without anybody noticing. Instead, I use Hader’s case to bring awareness to a silly stipulation that has become common on many different fantasy baseball platforms: the “undroppable” or “do not drop” list. Shout-out to Dipstick Fantasy Baseball for bringing much-needed awareness to this bogus situation on Twitter. The “do not drop” stipulation was enacted to prevent inexperienced managers or wild-card managers ( the ones brimming with plans to terrorize their fellow league members for no other reason than they like to watch the world burn) from dropping world-class talents like Shohei Ohtani or Jacob deGrom. I have played fantasy baseball for 22 years now. I’ve experienced and performed a lot of stupid maneuvers in many fantasy baseball leagues. Some I’m not too proud of, while others I still bring up in conversations to this day. The “do not drop” limiter is governance gone sideways. If somebody wants to drop Hader right now because they believe he is toast this season, that’s their right as a manager. There are plenty of safeguards that can be applied to prevent any unfair advantages from forming when said fantasy managers drop elite players. One key function is to live in the now and not use the antiquated ordered number waiver wire system. By installing a FAAB process, every manager has an equal opportunity to add Hader to their squad. You can insert any special player in the top 50 for Hader and this still applies. All you can ask for is that everybody has an equal shot. Collusion is highly unlikely this way. Order and structure are vital to maintaining a quality fantasy league. However, it is the God-given right of every fantasy manager to make a truly horrendous and stupefying decision if they so choose.
Screenshots
David Robertson – News broke over the weekend that Phillies relief pitcher Seranthony Domínguez was headed to the IL with right triceps soreness. Corey Knebel hit the IL early last week with a strained lat, but then was ruled out for the season. The closer job is all Robertson’s now. Confidence in him took a hit Sunday when he blew the save opportunity against the rival Mets after Mark Canha went yard in the ninth. The good news, though, is these were the first runs Robertson has given up in eight games since he was traded to Philadelphia. At 37 years old, Robertson is definitely the man. Brad Hand gets a boost here too.
Joey Votto – When Votto finally leaves baseball, it will be a loss felt across Twitter feeds everywhere. This priceless photo of Votto and Reds teammate Tyler Stephenson wearing their matching arm slings is gold! Votto pulled the plug on 2022 last week to get surgery done on his torn rotator cuff. According to Votto’s Twitter, “I didn’t know I was hurt. Thought I just stunk.” When you can get 30 home runs per season and quotes like that out of the same guy, you do not hesitate to sign that player to a massive extension. I had Votto in my 14-team home league, which has OBP as a category. Votto normally provides more value in OBP leagues. Now I am cycling through the likes of LaMonte Wade Jr., Yuli Gurriel and Keston Hiura. Gurriel hits in the 2-hole in Houston. I think I prefer him most out of these three options. I can likely replace Votto’s stats, but there is no replacing the clever banter he provides all season long. Godspeed Joey!
Shea Langeliers – Oakland has catcher Sean Murphy on their roster still despite tons of hot air about him being dealt. The good news is Murphy’s presence hasn’t impacted Shea Langeliers’ playing time since he was called up last week. Langeliers started five games last week with three starts as the DH. It appears you can add Langeliers without fear of him sitting too much. All indications are the Athletics brought him up to play plenty. The added bonus is the rookie can mash the ball! He went 3-4 Sunday against Luis Castillo and the Mariners with three hard-hit balls put in play. Langeliers’ bat has produced six XBH in those five games played. The prospect pedigree is strong with this one. There are many catchers I would dump straight up to bring Shea Langeliers on as my starting catcher. Not just in deep leagues either. 12-teamers are a go for his services in my view. By the way, every time I type Langeliers I think of that lame Stephen King mini-series from the 90s.
Jack Flaherty – Word around the campfire is, Flaherty will make one more rehab start at Triple-A Memphis. His last rehab outing showed flashes of 96 MPH velocity, but mainly he stayed around 93. I do not believe there is legitimate grounds for Flaherty to be anything close to what he was during that legendary second half run in 2019 when he sported a 0.91 ERA. Yet, if Flaherty can just be middling, he does provide value. He has an excellent offensive lineup to support him and one of the best closers in baseball to slam the door. I have little faith Flaherty is truly healthy enough to provide consistent starts ROS. In three starts during the 2022 season, he hasn’t pitched more than three innings. He left early in his last start June 26. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him come back, start a game and then leave after three innings. No matter what glowing reports we’re hearing from his rehab starts, there are other more reliable options out there.
Luis García – I have been smitten with Garcia since the 2020 bozo season. To start 2022 at Triple-A, Garcia hit eight yambos with a .217 ISO and a .314 batting average in 193 PA. Thanks to playing on a team battling for last place in the NL East, I was confident Garcia would show more power when he got called up again in June. To celebrate his arrival, Garcia hammered out six multi-hit games over his first 11. In 237 PA for Washington this year, he’s hit .289 but saw his K rate rise to 20% (not typical for him) while only walking a paltry four times. Bottom line is even with a max exit velocity (EV) of 113.4 MPH this year, it doesn’t mean jack squat if he drives the ball into the ground too often. To gain perspective on Garcia’s grounder problem, fly-ball master Joey Gallo has a career ground-ball rate of 29%. Garcia stands at 55%. Until Garcia shows me some mechanical adjustments at the plate, I think he’s no longer my pal anymore.
