Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
Welcome to the latest offseason edition of Groovin’ With Govier! If you’re new here (regulars: SKIP), I dissect various avenues and angles of the fantasy baseball landscape. Don’t forget our 2023 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide is available right now/ Save a couple bones with my promo code MJGOVIER when you sign up so you can get access to Eric Cross, Chris Meaney, Vlad Sedler and many more FTN whiz-kids.
Today, I am going to focus on a couple different player comparisons for 2023, as this is the final week of my 2023 ADP blackout. I truly have no idea where these players are going yet. After this, I will be infected. There will be no going back after today. If ignorance is bliss, then wipe the smile off my face.
The Diamond in the Rough
Let’s analyze two underrated players who have lots of fantasy goodness to offer all of us fastidious fantasy freaks: Edward Olivares and Jake Fraley. First off, I admit that I have a tender place in my fantasy heart for both of these talents. Both gents will be 27 years old next month. Each of them has the tantalizing ability to offer stolen base potential later in drafts, which of course is the holy grail of fantasy baseball. Fraley offers more value in OBP leagues because of his career 13% BB rate while Olivares appears to be more favorable to roto because of his superior ability to hit for average. Yet, Olivares only has a slightly higher career contact rate than Fraley of 77.4% to 75%.
Similar to how Killmonger and T’Challa took different paths to becoming The Black Panther, both of these dudes have had their playing time limited in different ways over the last couple of seasons. More than ever, the ability to be on the field regularly remains a crucial aspect to maximizing hitter totals. Especially in roto formats. I’m sure the higher ups here would prefer I kept you on our site, but I have to give kudos when it’s called for. This site has the injury history listed in chronological order for every MLB player. It’s an excellent resource for quick glances at a player’s injury history. Fraley appeared in 68 games over 247 PA due mostly to a knee issue that took away a chunk of his season. In 2021, Fraley had four different ailments limiting his playing time while still in Seattle, yet he appeared in more games than 2022 with 265 PA that season.
Recency bias may tag Olivares unfairly with injury concerns. He had a large chunk of 2022 wiped away by a quad issue. By now you know how those leg muscle issues can linger all season long. Particularly during the epic grind of 162. Outside of that quad though, Olivares has been ready and willing. He became infamous for the I-29 Shuffle that he endured going back and forth religiously from Omaha to KC and back again during 2021. Most of us have still not recovered from the baffling decisions of the late-stage Dayton Moore regime. Olivares bore the brunt of that, but there was also the destruction of an entire generation of high-end arms. Brady Singer may be the only survivor of that disastrous conclusion to a World-Series winning operation. It’s painful for many of us, but winning a championship does not dictate future success. A local case I like to reference is Joe Dumars. He turned the Pistons into world champions in 2004 with an unorthodox style from the norm. But he also drafted Darko Milicic in the 2003 Lebron James/Carmelo Anthony/Dwyane Wade/Chris Bosh draft. By 2009, he had signed Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva to big contracts. Need I say more?
According to my park factors pal Crosby Spencer, Fraley has the best hitter’s park in baseball at his disposal, while Olivares should absolutely be an everyday player in the heart of a fun up and coming Royal’s offense. Fraley is a key left-handed bat who might be propped up for trade bait by the deadline. The Reds offense is very enticing! Even though they should be garbo in real life this year, fantasy chunks of deliciousness await all of us in that Cincy lineup. If Fraley stays healthy this year, he will crank 20 taters. He is one of my favorite low-key players heading into this season. One thing worth noting is the reduction in his K rate down to 21.9% from 26.8%. With his batter’s eye in that ballpark, that’s a very exciting combination! 10 steals at least should also be in play as well with the new rules looking to increase athleticism and overall action on the diamond. Fraley is an OBP league must-have this year.
As for Olivares, he too brings excitement to my loins. He should end up playing more often than Fraley does. Despite the Royals’ young talent oozing out of that lineup, there is less value compared to the situation in Cincinnati. I think the distinction between roto and points leagues matters here. Olivares will be more of a target for me in roto while Fraley gets the edge in points and OBP-based leagues. Olivares has the potential to steal more bases this season than Fraley. Depending on new manager Matt Quatraro’s philosophy after coming over from the Rays, maybe the ceiling on Olivares as a base pilfer gets limited? There is no reason to think that though. Randy Arozarena stole 32 bags last year. If Olivares hits in the middle of the lineup, he should have more green lights. Let’s hope for that this year. I can’t wait for this season.
This or That
2022 was a bozo season for Matt Chapman. He scorched the hell out of the ball quite often to the tune of a 50.7% HHR with a 13% barrel rate and max EV of 112.7 MPH. The dead ball seemed to impact him a great deal. Yet, he still cranked out 27 dongs in what felt like a subpar season. Take it from me since I rostered him a great deal in 2022 waiting for the ultimate hot streak to take hold. It never quite did. There were flashes of heat, but the consistency was lacking. Josh Rojas was a bummer from the plate in 2022. Maybe even more so. His 23 swipes are again held on high upon Mount Fantasy for all to see. 23 steals from a 3B gets everybody all hot and bothered. Yet in 510 PA he couldn’t crack double digits in homers.
There is optimism in the air all across MLB in spring training. It’s a rite of passage. In the case of these two hot cornerstones, both have their own reasons to be stoked for 2023. Both Chapman and Rojas are similar in age (Chapman is 29, Rojas is 28). Toronto is working on changes to their fences at Rogers Centre. The walls in certain cases will be raised though, so we could be looking at more action with balls caroming off the walls instead of going over. As a right-handed hitter, Chapman may not see much more power added to his game this year, but he could see more doubles. His career high was 42 in 2018 and I think this is a year where he can set a new personal best. Add the players mixed in around him in that Blue Jays lineup and you might be seeing Matt Chapman pulling one of these in the streets of Toronto this summer. RBI can be difficult to predict, but confidence should be high for Chapman in that department this year.
Josh Rojas is also feeling the helium of a new day in 2023. The Dbacks are on the rise with a buttload of young talent that makes them one of the most exciting teams to focus on this year. Will that mean Rojas can count on more of his offensive counterparts this year? Arizona was 8th in MLB in 2022 when it came to accessing a free pass. Of course, they also finished 26th in batting average with an abysmal .230 mark tied oddly enough with the playoff bound Mariners. Rojas is one of two full-time lefties expected in the Dbacks lineup. He is likely to slide somewhere around the middle of the lineup, but I think he should be the leadoff hitter against righties. We’ll have to see how that plays out. Trusting Corbin Carroll as the leadoff hitter is a big ask right away. I don’t think that’s going to play out. If Rojas leads off this year, that’s a big boost to his value. He hit leadoff 45 times last season. So it’s not out of the question that he gets regular opportunities to do so in 2023. The addition of Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will be a big question mark that needs answering. How much will losing Daulton Varsho hurt or help this lineup? Varsho had moments, but there were large stretches of inconsistency still in 2022. New blood like Gurriel and improvement from Carroll or Jake McCarthy will be important to Rojas’ secondary abilities.
Matt Chapman is as reliable as they come. He’s had over 600 PA in each of the last four full seasons. I have no doubt he will be there every day. A bonus with a guy like Chapman is his glove. Defense means little to us in fantasy, except when it comes to ensuring that the player will be in the lineup. That’s a small, but important reassurance with Chapman. The Blue Jays are a playoff team with title aspirations. All hands on deck is a good thing for Chapman this year. Rojas is now a veteran presence in Arizona, but that doesn’t mean he will be any more available this year. He started last season on the IL with an oblique injury. Beyond a brief hand contusion scare in May, he was able to stay on the field in 2022. Right now, some of you are thinking that if Rojas stole 23 bases last year, it seems likely that with the rule changes for 2023 he is hopeful to gain another 20 swipes. Be wary of confirmation bias. Rojas was in an exclusive club with Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bobby Witt Jr. and José Ramírez. These were the 3B who stole at least 20 bags in 2022. The dropoff after those four was noticeable though with Manny Machado coming in with 9. If you’re that person in your league who is all in on an increase in steals this season, then you can look elsewhere to fill in your steals needs beyond Rojas.
The surface-level bottom line between these two is all about the build of your teams. Power went bye-bye-bye last year. No secret there. The response by many for Chapman in 2023 will be an increase in his draft stock because of his 30-homer potential. Rojas has the glory of steals and the possibility of leading off. Those steals alone will lead a lot of radical drafters to jump up to grab him. With only 16 barrels and a 36% HHR, the likelihood of Rojas taking a leap in homers has little support outside of the uncertainty about what type of baseball will be used this year. Really, any analysis has to take this into account. Bake in a certain percentage of reduction or production as we anticipate MLB’s 2023 baseball reveal in spring training. Like the gender reveal of your incoming newborn on Instagram, it’s becoming an annual event we all look forward to! I think Chapman got a bit unlucky last year with some rocket shots for outs. It’s always about your roster construction, but in the proverbial vacuum, I am likely taking Chapman because I think I can fill in steals elsewhere.
