Drops & Disasters: Fantasy Baseball Roster Moves (7/28)

As we head into the final two months of the fantasy baseball season, it is a good time to take stock of underperforming players. Every fantasy manager probably is rostering at least some players who are not living up to their draft cost (or expectations when acquired in FAAB). Some managers have a sense which players are performing well or poorly. Other managers routinely track their players’ performance on a daily, weekly and/or monthly basis. Such tracking is beneficial, but it also can be misleading if limited to short time periods. Over the course of a long season, all players will experience both hot streaks and cold slumps of varying degrees and durations. Thus, every now and then, it is worthwhile to monitor performance over an extended period of time.

This column focuses on potential drops, and so let’s focus on the worst-performing players over a reasonably lengthy time interval. The goal is to select an interval that is long enough to assess a player’s performance in a manner that is not impacted heavily by a recent hot streak or slump. For purposes of this column, I am using a very recent eight-week period, running from May 29 through July 24. In order to exclude small samples (due to injury or reduced playing time), I also am limiting my examination to “qualified” players, which requires hitters and pitchers to accumulate at least 3.1 plate appearances and 1 inning pitched, respectively, per scheduled league game (although that filter is abandoned when evaluating closers). Finally, I am focusing here on performance in the 10 roto categories that determine our teams’ fates.

Runs: From May 29-July 24, Juan Soto scored the most runs (43). The hitters scoring the least runs over the eight-week period were: Orlando Arcia (8), Andres Gimenez (10) and DJ LeMahieu (11). Some widely-rostered players scoring 16 runs or less over the eight-week period include: Yandy Diaz (13, surprising for a leadoff hitter), Bryson Stott (13), Josh Bell (14), Rhys Hoskins (14), Dansby Swanson (14), Leody Taveras (14), Bryan De La Cruz (15), Alex Verdugo (16), Ryan Mountcastle (16), Jeremy Pena (16), Isaac Paredes (16), Taylor Ward (16), Tommy Pham (16), Ke’Bryan Hayes (16) and Daulton Varsho (16).

Home Runs: From May 29-July 24, Aaron Judge and Anthony Santander hit the most home runs (18). Shohei Ohtani had 17 and no one else had more than 13. The only qualified hitter not to have at least one home run during this period is Sal Frelick. Widely-rostered players with only one or two home runs over the recent eight-week period include: Varsho, Gimenez, Stott, Anthony Volpe and Maikel Garcia with one home run, and Pham, Arcia, Hayes, Nico Hoerner, Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger and Max Kepler with two home runs.

RBI: Judge led baseball with 50 RBI from May 29-July 24. Interestingly, finishing second and third were Alec Burleson (43) and Ian Happ (41). Notable laggards in this category include: Pham (6), Arcia (7), Frelick (8), Varsho (9), Hayes (10), Turner (11), M. Garcia (11), Ward (11), Adolis Garcia (12), Gimenez (12), Stott (12) Andrew McCutchen (13), Adam Duvall (13), Cody Bellinger (13), Volpe (13) and Andy Pages (13).

Stolen Bases: Elly De La Cruz easily stole the most bases from May 29-July 24 (20). The closest players to him were Lane Thomas (15), Christian Yelich (14) and Francisco Lindor (14). In contrast, there were many players with zero stolen bases over the recent two-month period, most of whom you would not expect to contribute to this category. There were a number of players, however, with zero or a very small number of stolen bases that fantasy managers probably are counting on for larger contributions, such as: Gleyber Torres (0), Verdugo (0), Ezequiel Tovar (0), Teoscar Hernandez (1), Bryan Reynolds (1), Juan Soto (1), Bryce Harper (2), Marcus Semien (2), Jose Siri (2), Christopher Morel (2), Masyn Winn (2), Steve Kwan (3) and Willi Castro (3).

Average: Bobby Witt led all of baseball with a .392 average from May 29-July 24, easily besting Yordan Alvarez (.348), Carlos Correa (.342) and Judge (.342). At the opposite end of the spectrum was Mitch Garver (.164). Other notable laggards in the average category include Duvall (.168), Ward (.171), Jo Adell (.174), Arcia (.177), A. Garcia (.181), Jake Meyers (.189), Hoskins (.193), Paredes (.194), M. Garcia (.194), Verdugo (.195), Varsho (.196) and Luke Raley (.197).

Strikeouts: From May 29-July 24, Dylan Cease led all of baseball in strikeouts (77), just nudging out Paul Skenes (76) and Tarik Skubal (74). The top laggard in this category among qualified pitchers was Marcus Stroman (30 in 48.1 IP). Among the more widely-rostered starting pitchers with relatively low strikeout totals were Ben Lively (37 in 48.1 IP), Luis Severino (38 in 57 IP), Jose Berrios (39 in 56.1 IP), Ranger Suarez (39 in 47.1 IP), Cristopher Sanchez (40 in 54.2 IP) and Bryce Miller (41 in 51.1 IP).

Wins: Hunter Brown led all of baseball in wins from May 29-July 24 (8). Grayson Rodriguez was the runner-up (7). In contrast, Chris Flexen, Ryan Feltner and Trevor Rogers failed to win a game despite 11, 9 and 9 starts, respectively. Some of the more surprisingly low win totals by widely-rostered starting pitchers making at least nine starts during this eight-week period were: Ranger Suarez (1), Nestor Cortes (1), Simeon Woods Richardson (1), Zach Eflin (2), Nick Pivetta (2), Justin Steele (2), Yusei Kikuchi (2), Joe Ryan (2), Brady Singer (2) and Brandon Pfaadt (2).

Saves: During the eight-week period running May 29-July 24, Ryan Helsley led all closers with 16 saves. Close on his heels were Kyle Finnegan, Pete Fairbanks and Emmanuel Clase with 14 saves, Josh Hader with 13 saves and Carlos Estevez and Trevor Megill with 12 saves. In terms of laggards during this period, the closers with disappointing saves totals included: Jose Alvarado (4), Jason Foley (4), Mason Miller (4), Andres Munoz (5) and Clay Holmes (6). For those fantasy managers braving Rockies closers, Jalen Beeks led the way with 4 saves (but 6.38 ERA), followed by Tyler Kinley with 3 saves (but 6.75 ERA) and Victor Vodnik, also with 3 saves (but 5.56 ERA).

ERA: From May 29-July 24, Paul Skenes had the best ERA (1.84) among qualified pitchers, followed by Goerge Kirby (2.05), Brown (2.07) and Corbin Burnes (2.14). At the other end of the spectrum, here are the starting pitchers with ERAs of 4.75 or higher that also are widely-rostered on fantasy teams (along with their SIERAs as one indicator of underlying skills during this period): Brayan Bello (6.33; 3.98 SIERA), Kikuchi (6.12; 3.24 SIERA), Carlos Rodon (6.11; 3.70 SIERA), Berrios (5.43; 4.99 SIERA), Frankie Montas (5.33; 4.46 SIERA), Shota Imanaga (5.01; 3.92 SIERA), Cortes (4.99; 3.98 SIERA) and Kevin Gausman (4.95; 4.14 SIERA).

WHIP: Logan Gilbert had the best WHIP from May 29-July 24 (0.76), followed by Skenes (0.84), Kutter Crawford (0.90), Nathan Eovaldi (0.92) and Kirby (0.93). The widely-rostered laggards in this category are Bello (1.70), David Peterson (1.48), Montas (1.45), Kikuchi (1.44), Suarez (1.44), Spencer Arrighetti (1.43), Chris Bassitt (1.42) and Stroman (1.39).

Importantly, the purpose of analyzing category laggards is not to imply that all or even most of the players identified should be dropped. If, however, fantasy managers are rostering and routinely starting these laggards, and perhaps did not realize just how badly they were hurting teams in certain categories, this article should serve as the impetus to dig deeper into them and evaluate whether such players should continue to be regularly started. It may be that laggards in some categories are strong performers in other categories that, for individual managers, justify their continued use. For some players, the underlying metrics still may look good and improved performance is expected. That noted, there are many widely-rostered players who have been hurting their teams for two months, or longer, and should be dropped or at least benched, depending on a manager’s alternatives and categorical needs.

Some of the players who should at least be considered as potential drops this week are set forth below in the following two tables – the first includes hitters and the second includes pitchers. In addition to the player’s name, team and position, the tables include the player’s ownership percentage in the premier 15- and 12-team contests: the NFBC’s Main Event and Online Championship, respectively. Finally, the tables list my rankings as to how strongly – or not – I feel each particular player should be dropped in those 15-team and 12-team formats, respectively. The key to these rankings, from 0-4, is as follows:

• 0 = Do not drop
• 1 = Team context dependent; probably should not be dropped on most teams
• 2 = Team context dependent; compelling arguments to drop and not drop
• 3 = Team context dependent; probably should be dropped on most teams
• 4 = Drop

Potential Hitter Drops

The Braves’ Michael Harris suffered a Grade 2 hamstring strain on June 14. After initially being placed on the 10-day IL, Atlanta transferred Harris to the 60-day IL on July 24, signaling that he will not be back until August 14 at the earliest. On July 25, Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal Constitution tweeted that: “At one point during his build-up, Michael Harris (hamstring strain) felt something in his hamstring. The Braves had to back off of him for a bit, which is why he won’t return until later than they perhaps had hoped. (He’s on the 60-day, so he can’t return until mid-August).” As of Friday, Harris apparently had not progressed to sprinting or performing baseball activities, which he will need to without limitation before being cleared for a rehab assignment (which should last a week or longer given how long he’s been out). In his first two seasons in the league, Harris has been a true five-category performer. In 2022 (114 games), Harris had 19 HR, 20 SB, 139 R+RBI and hit .297. Last season (138 games), Harris had 18 HR, 20 SB, 133 R+RBI and hit .293. Thus far in 2024 (67 games), Harris has been less productive (5 HR, 8 SB, 50 R+RBI, .250 AVG). Earlier this week, Harris expressed confidence that he will be able to return to action when eligible on August 14.

Whether to hold or drop Harris is a tough call and very much team dependent. I think in most (but not all) contexts Harris is worth stashing so long as the news remains favorable and there are no further setbacks. Here are some of the factors to consider in making this call (many of which are applicable to other players):

• How confident are managers that Harris will return on August 14 or shortly thereafter? In last week’s article, I discussed the need to be pessimistic when it comes to player, manager and team statements about injury return dates. Frankly, I’m skeptical that Harris will be ready to return to the field when first eligible. Even if managers are more optimistic, it is advisable to make hold/drop decisions assuming a more conservative return date than the earliest possible one. He’s already had one setback and even the slightest one at this stage could delay his return until September.
• Do managers have other injury stashes or is Harris the only one? If there are others, how does Harris rank among them in terms of priority? If holding Harris, how well equipped is the team to incur the costs of the stash (lost roster flexibility and the inability to use Harris’s roster slot to acquire other players) for at least several more weeks?
• How confident are managers that Harris will perform well upon his return? He could be great, but a few potential concerns are: (a) after missing so much time, it may take a while for Harris to perform at his peak; (b) given the nature of Harris’s injury, it is not clear if he will attempt to steal bases upon his return; and (c) the Braves offense to date is considerably worse than in recent years.
• How much of a difference-maker would Harris be for individual teams? Is Harris likely to make meaningful contributions in the categories where a boost is needed? For instance, while Harris has some pop, I would not expect him to hit many home runs or steal many bases coming off a bad leg injury. But, if managers crave across-the-board contributions, preferably with a solid or better average, Harris could be a boon to teams over the last six weeks of the season.

On June 3, Kyle Tucker, in the midst of another great season, fouled a ball off of his shin. Initially, Tucker wanted to continue the at bat, but eventually was convinced to come out of the game. Houston initially indicated that Tucker was day-to-day following X-rays that were negative. Asked if Tucker would be able to avoid an IL stint, Astros manager Joe Espada said: “It’s early for that. I’m just encouraged  that he’s walking around there and feeling OK. That’s good.” Well, it wasn’t good for long, as the Astros subsequently placed Tucker on the 10-day IL with what was labeled as a “shin contusion.” After going on the IL, Tucker was kidnapped by aliens and never seen again. Seriously, tomorrow will be eight weeks of missed games for Tucker, and there still is no timetable for his return. Earlier this week, Espada indicated that Tucker still needs to “clear a lot of hurdles” before returning to the field. While indicating that Tucker was feeling better, Espada stated that “we need to see him do a little bit more of recovering better so we can actually at some point get him on the bases and get him over the hump.” Thus, Tucker still is not able to run bases at full speed, meaning his return still is at least several weeks away. Despite suffering what must have been the worst “contusion” in the history of modern medicine, Tucker still is a hold in my opinion. While nothing coming out of the Astros concerning Tucker (or any injured player) can be trusted, when healthy Tucker is a top-10 fantasy player and I’d be (and am) highly reluctant to drop him. At this point, fantasy managers should assume something like a September 1 return and evaluate whether or not they can afford to hold Tucker. This past Wednesday, Astros general manager Dana Brown indicated that he was “optimistic” that Tucker would be back before September, although I’m not optimistic anything he or Espada says about Tucker is worth relying upon. As we enter August, longer-term stashes ordinarily should be avoided, but real difference-makers are an exception, and Tucker belongs in that category. Absent news that Tucker may not return, or that his return is unlikely by the beginning of September, he’s worth holding if managers can afford to do so.

After being busted for PEDs and serving an 80-game suspension, the Reds Noelvi Marte was activated on June 27, going 3-for-5 with 3 runs, 1 RBI, and a stolen base. Like Pavlov’s dog hearing a bell, fantasy managers salivated until FAAB Sunday, when they made Marte this year’s most expensive acquisition. Marte was added in 51 Main Event leagues (having been drafted and held in the other six) with an average winning bid over $270. To the chagrin of managers stashing Marte or winning him in FAAB, Marte’s first month of games has been disappointing in the extreme. After 24 games (95 plate appearances), Marte has 2 HR, 21 R+RBI, 3 SB and is hitting .180 with a 2.1% BB% and a 30.5% K%. Marte is swinging at everything (42.6% O-Swing%) and exhibits poor contact skills (69.3% Contact%). Compared to 2023, Marte’s average exit velocity has declined from 91.3 mph to 84.3 mph, and his hard-hit rate has declined from 46.1% to 29.5%. In retrospect, was there cause for concern here? Well, putting aside Marte’s young age, use of PEDs, missed half-season and lack of track record, prior to his activation he was hitting .151 in Triple-A in 12 games (53 plate appearances) with 0 HR, 1 SB and a 0.0% BB% and a 28.3% K% (although it’s dangerous to rely heavily on stats during a rehab stint of limited duration). So, should managers hold Marte or drop him? In my opinion, he’s a clear hold in 15- and 12-team formats, although expectations probably should be lowered. Importantly, the cost of acquiring Marte in FAAB (or drafting and holding him for three months) is sunk. It now is highly doubtful that Marte will live up to his acquisition cost this season. That reality, however, is irrelevant to the decision whether or not to hold him. Rather, that evaluation should be forward looking and be made in the context of potential alternate strategies (for instance, dropping Marte for another corner infielder). Despite playing lousy thus far, Marte is an elite prospect and athlete, still has regular playing time and plays his home games in what arguably is MLB’s best hitting park. His first month’s output in HR and SB pro-rates to 12 HR and 18 SB, which, for a team needing speed, can be quite useful, especially coming from a corner infielder (and that assumes no improvement in performance). After missing half the season, it probably was unrealistic to expect Marte to hit the ground running, even with a dozen minor league games under his belt. In my Main Event and Online Championship leagues, it has been challenging to find even decent corner infielders in FAAB, and the vast majority of those players – even if outplaying Marte at the moment – lack his upside moving forward. If rostering viable alternatives to Marte, he always can be benched until showing signs of life; that seems a better strategy than dropping him.

Christian Yelich is a tough hold/drop call for many fantasy managers this weekend. Yelich has a history of back issues (this season, he was out from April 12 to May 8 with a back injury). On July 23, Yelich was removed from a game with “back tightness.” On July 24, he landed on the IL with “back inflammation.” Later that day, it was reported that Yelich might require season-ending surgery. On July 25, it was reported that Yelich will forgo surgery for now and intends to try to rest and recover in the hopes of returning this season, with surgery remaining likely in the offseason. There is no information, however, as to how much rest Yelich will require before being able to return to action, and it sounds like it may be a question of pain management. Prior to being placed on the IL, Yelich was having a strong season (in 73 games, 11 HR, 86 R+RBI, 21 SB, .315 AVG). Yelich’s five-category production needs to be balanced now against two major unknowns: (1) uncertainty as to if and when he may be able to resume playing; and (2) uncertainty as to whether Yelich will be able to replicate his production, or even come close, while playing through a back injury that is serious enough to likely require surgery at some point. If fantasy managers need the roster spot, they probably should drop (especially in 12-teamers) – I am skeptical that Yelich returns soon, and the odds that he will be able to play well while avoiding a season-ending setback appear low. Managers who can afford to stash Yelich, especially in 15-teamers, should consider doing so, at least for a week or two and see if he is getting closer to returning. Managers holding Yelich should evaluate that strategy weekly, searching for reports that Yelich is performing on-field baseball activities. If a week or two goes by with no activity, we could be looking at a long absence, in which case Yelich probably is a drop in all formats.

Mike Trout, who has missed large amounts of time to injury in recent years, has been out since April 29 following knee surgery. Trout finally recovered to the point of starting a rehab assignment on July 24. Unfortunately, Trout experienced soreness in his injured knee and left his first rehab game after two innings and returned to California for further evaluation. On July 26, Trout advised reporters that an MRI on his knee came back “clean” and that he was planning to resume running soon. In the grand scheme of things, the past week may prove to be only a minor setback, but it also indicates that a return to MLB games probably is not imminent. Trout will need to resume running and, sometime thereafter, go on a rehab assignment and play in a number of games without experiencing any setbacks. A mid-August return appears to be a best-case scenario, and the risk of further setbacks is high. If and when Trout is able to return to the Angels, it is doubtful he will attempt to steal bases, and so fantasy managers are left with a strong power hitter on a bad team with nothing to play for (one would expect Trout to be handled gingerly with plenty of rest time). Even if Trout is able to play somewhat regularly the final six weeks of the season, home runs might be his only true “plus” category. Given the Angels lineup, Trout is unlikely to compile large quantities of runs and RBI (for instance, he hit 10 HR in only 29 games to start the season and yet only had 14 RBI). Despite a hot start, Trout was only hitting .220 at the time of his injury (after hitting .263 last season) and, consequently, it also is tough to see him moving the needle in AVG. If managers possess the roster flexibility in 15-teamers, I can understand holding Trout for 1-2 more weeks to see if he’s able to resume his rehab assignment. In 12-teamers, Trout probably may be a drop on all teams other than those needing HR in particular.

Potential Pitcher Drops

Over the past few weeks, A.J. Puk has been a popular stash. Having failed miserably in a conversion to starting at the beginning of the season, Puk has been excellent in relief. The hope and expectation of fantasy managers stashing Puk is that the Marlins would trade closer Tanner Scott, freeing up the role for Puk. Those hopes were dashed, however, when the Marlins traded Puk to Arizona. Whether to hold or drop Puk now is a very team dependent evaluation. Paul Sewald is the Diamondbacks closer and is likely to remain so, at least for some period of time. Sewald has been shaky at times, and so the possibility exists that Puk eventually could supplant him, or at least gain a share of the team’s saves. Managers in need of a strong relief pitcher for ratio help, with the possibility of saves, should be interested in holding Puk. Importantly, when evaluating Puk, it is important to distinguish the lousy starting pitcher from the strong relief pitcher. For the season, Puk has a 4.30 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. As a starter  (13.2 IP), Puk was horrible, with a 9.22 ERA and 2.63 WHIP. As a reliever (31.1), Puk has been terrific with a 2.08 ERA and stellar 0.76 WHIP. In 12-team formats, Puk should be dropped; there is no indication the Diamondbacks intend to utilize him as the closer anytime soon. In 15-team formats, Puk might be a hold, depending on what a team needs. If rostering solely for saves, Puk can be dropped. In other contexts, Puk is fantasy relevant in 15-teamers as a reliever who can provide strong ratios and occasional wins and saves (with an outside shot at closing games regularly if Sewald falters).

With the return of Ross Stripling and Paul Blackburn, the A’s are moving Joey Estes to the bullpen. Estes is a great example of the difference between 12- and 15-team leagues. Estes is 22 years old, in his first extended stay in the majors and is a mediocre starting pitcher, at best, for fantasy. In 13 starts totaling 71.1 IP, Estes has 4 wins, only 53 strikeouts, a 4.92 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. He also pitches for one of the worst teams in baseball. Currently, Estes is 9% rostered in the Online Championship but 90% rostered in the Main Event. Earlier this week, the A’s welcomed Ross Stripling and Paul Blackburn back to the rotation. On Friday, Estes was used in relief, and that apparently will be his new role. As a starter, Estes had some modest utility in 15-team leagues in weeks with a favorable matchup; as a middle reliever, he is not worth holding in any format. Fantasy managers rostering Estes are advised to drop him tonight.

Christian Scott received some good news on the severity of his UCL injury. Already on the IL, Scott will be shut down for approximately two weeks, after which he will attempt to ramp back up and pitch again this season. I am skeptical that happens, and view Scott as a drop. Following an injury and absence from throwing, Scott will need at least several weeks to build himself back up to pitching in games, which means an early-September return likely is the best-case scenario. The risk of setback, however, remains high, and one would expect the Mets to handle Scott very carefully given that his injury is to his UCL. I would place the odds of Scott not pitching again in the majors in 2024 at something higher than 50/50. Scott should be dropped. Even when he’s been healthy and has pitched, the results have been decidedly mediocre – 9 starts, 0 wins, 4.56 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 13.7% K-BB% – those are not the statistics of a pitcher worthy of stashing on your bench for a month (or longer) with only two months left in the season.

This week, Kodai Senga gets added to the growing list of regrettable stashes in the 2024 baseball season. Fantasy managers have been waiting for months for Senga to return from a shoulder injury. He did so on Friday, and looked every bit the part, mowing down the Braves with 9 strikeouts through his first 5.1 innings pitched. Unfortunately, in the sixth inning of his first start back, Senga injured his calf getting out of the way of a routine pop-up. In quick succession, Senga was diagnosed with a calf strain, placed on the IL and then ruled out for the season. Senga now should be dropped in all formats, becoming Example No. 8,531 of the risks of stashing.

Jason Foley is considered the Tigers closer, but is he? Since May 25, Foley has made 20 appearances and has 4 saves. Contrast that with the period March 28-May 24 when Foley made 21 appearances and tallied 11 saves. The Tigers are a decent team (52 wins, 54 losses), and Foley remains the favorite to lead the team in saves over the final two months of the season, but managers no longer should view Foley as a “capital C” closer. If rostering solely for saves, there may be better opportunities now and next week after the dust clears from Tuesday’s trade deadline. Whether to hold or drop Foley is team- and league-dependent, but managers should not overvalue Foley at the expense of other players that may receive more frequent save opportunities.

A’s closer Mason Miller suffered a broken pinky to his non-throwing hand. After conflicting reports concerning how the injury occurred, manager Mark Kotsay stated that: “There’s some speculation. The original statement [about Miller fracturing his left pinky out of frustration] is pretty accurate. Mason’s agent may have thought differently and made a statement of his own: “How we do things here in this organization is to tell the truth. The truth is postgame Monday night after being done with his pitching, Mason came in the training room and was going through his recovery. He was reminded he had a postgame lift to get in. Out of a little frustration, he just kind of pounded his fist down on a padded training table out of emotion. We’ve all been there, done that. Unfortunately, it resulted in a fracture in his non-pitching hand in his left hand where his pinky area is.” (I love the “been there, done that” line, as if it is commonplace to break bones hitting things in frustration, although, in baseball, it kind of is.) Regardless of the circumstances, Miller is on the IL until August 9, but is able to throw. I would not be surprised if this is a minimum IL stint. While Miller has to be able to field his position, a pinky injury to a non-throwing hand does not sound like it should necessitate a lengthy absence, especially for a relief pitcher like Miller, who typically only throws an inning at a time and allows few hitters to make hard contact. Miller is an elite relief pitcher (15 SV, 2.21 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 36.6% K-BB% with 70 K in 40.2 IP). Even if Miller’s return is delayed slightly until mid-August, or even modestly later, he still is worth holding in all formats.

In last week’s article, we discussed the Blue Jays’ Yusei Kikuchi, who is enduring a very disappointing season despite solid peripherals. This week, fantasy managers are alerted to the recent, comparable struggles of Kikuchi’s current teammate, Jose Berrios. A workhorse, Berrios has made 21 starts, earning 8 wins with ratios (4.08 ERA and 1.20 WHIP) that, while not great, are solid. Looking under the hood, however, reveals multiple concerns. First, Berrios’s performance is trending sharply downward. His ratios by month are March/April – 1.44 ERA, 1.01 WHIP; May – 4.70 ERA, 1.17 WHIP; June – 4.85 ERA, 1.18 WHIP; and July – 7.78 ERA, 1.78 WHIP. It is fair to say that, since May 1, Berrios has been a bad pitcher. Second, Berrios’ strikeout rate is down to 18%, the lowest level since his 2016 rookie season. Third, Berrios allows a lot of hard contact – his average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate all are higher than his career averages, and he is giving up 1.6 HR/9. Fourth, if anything, Berrios has been lucky – his 4.08 ERA compares favorably to his xERA (5.14) and SIERA (4.56). Fifth, the Blue Jays have been disappointing this season, and the team is likely to be worse – not better – following Tuesday’s trade deadline, thereby dimming prospects for a strong finish to Berrios’ season. Berrios is a drop in 12-team formats and only should be used in favorable matchups, if at all, in 15-teamers.

Potential Disaster Starts

Set forth in the table below are starting pitchers I believe have real disaster potential for the coming week. In order to make this section of the column as actionable as possible, pitchers who are sparsely rostered have been excluded. Instead, I am challenging myself by focusing solely on pitchers who are at least 90% rostered in the Main Event or at least 60% rostered in the Online Championship. The pitchers are ranked from 1 to 10 for disaster potential in the coming week, with the highest numbers reflecting pitchers I am highly unlikely to start and who strike me as the biggest potential disasters. 

This past week was one of my best picking disaster starts. Thus far, in seven starts (31.1 IP), my selections compiled only 1 win with a 6.89 ERA and a 1.98 WHIP. In the interests of accountability, set forth below are the results of my “disaster” picks thus far. Week 18 reflects the results through yesterday; additional stats accumulated today will be reflected in next week’s article.