Drops & Disasters: Fantasy Baseball Roster Moves (5/26)

Now that it is Memorial Day weekend, we are roughly at the one-third mark of the MLB baseball season. So much has changed in the two-plus months since we finished drafting baseball teams. Don’t believe me? The most valuable starting pitcher in fantasy, by a wide margin, is Ranger Suarez, who had an NFBC Main Event ADP of 298. Other top fantasy starting pitchers taken much later than they would be today include (with their Main Event ADPs): Seth Lugo (263), Tanner Houck (311), Clarke Schmidt (315), Jared Jones (317), Garrett Crochet (326), Luis Gil (329) and Javier Assad (444). Just as the landscape has changed so much in the last two months, it will do so again between now and the end of July, and then again by the end of the season. As fantasy managers, it is easy to become hyper-focused on the here and now; for instance, today’s stats, tonight’s FAAB and tomorrow’s lineup decisions. Importantly, however, while season-long fantasy baseball now often is thought of as a series of 26 weekly contests, sometimes it is advisable to take a step back and ensure that short-term decisions are consistent with long-term needs, especially when it comes to potential drops in FAAB.

For me, the toughest drop decisions frequently involve strong players who are injured. I have written repeatedly about some of the risks of stashing such players, including: (a) clogging a valuable bench spot and reducing roster flexibility for an extended period of time; (b) the inability to use that roster spot to acquire potentially valuable players in FAAB for multiple weeks; (c) the possibility that an injured player suffers a setback, necessitating a longer IL stint than contemplated previously, and (d) the possibility that, upon return from injury, the player will experience difficulties returning to peak performance. While those risks are important considerations to evaluate, sometimes an injured player has much better skills and more upside than any of the alternatives available in FAAB and warrants a stash. If an injured player is expected to be out for another month, that is a long time to stash that player. Significantly, however, if that player is able to return within that time, the manager stashing him could enjoy his fantasy stats for the final three months – or one-half – of the season.

In deciding whether to stash or drop an injured player, the following factors should be considered (the same factors also are relevant in determining whether to target an injured player in FAAB):

• The quality of the player, both in isolation and in comparison to healthy alternatives available in FAAB (considering the injured player’s propensity to suffer another injury). For instance, if you are able to replace an injured player with someone close in skills, that would argue strongly in favor of dropping the injured player. Stashes should be reserved for players with much higher upside than healthy alternatives.

• The current health of the manager’s fantasy team. It is much easier to manage a team and stay competitive with one injury stash than multiple stashes. Before deciding to stash an injured player, take stock of your roster. If you already have multiple injury stashes, adding another likely will limit your ability to make mid-week hitter substitutions and/or cause you to have to stream pitchers from FAAB more frequently (a dangerous practice over the long run).

• The severity of the player’s injury, the “firmness” of the estimated recovery period and the likelihood of potential setbacks. For instance, in my experience, injured pitchers who have to ramp up from soft toss all the way up through multiple rehab appearances are more likely to suffer setbacks than hitters, who often require shorter rehab stints. The longer the estimated recovery period, the greater the likelihood that the estimate will be inaccurate.

• The injured player’s estimated recovery time relative to the time left in the season. This is a critically important factor. I’m far more likely to stash a player out for four weeks in April or May (when so much of the season remains) than I am in July or August (when there is less time remaining for that player to return value post-injury).

• The anticipated categorical contributions of the injured player. Now that we are two months into the season, fantasy managers should be aware of their teams’ strengths and weaknesses. Before committing to a long-term stash, managers should evaluate critically how the injured player’s anticipated fantasy contributions would mesh with the team’s categorical needs. For instance, while Christian Encarnacion-Strand may be an attractive stash wherever available, he makes more sense for – and likely will be more valuable to – teams that are struggling in home runs and RBIs than teams whose biggest weakness is speed or pitching (although managers also should recognize that with four months left to play, today’s strengths can be tomorrow’s weaknesses, and vice versa).

Some of the players who should at least be considered as potential drops this week are set forth below in the following two tables – the first includes hitters and the second includes pitchers. In addition to the player’s name, team and position, the tables include the player’s ownership percentage in the premier 15- and 12-team contests: the NFBC’s Main Event and Online Championship, respectively. Finally, the tables list my rankings as to how strongly – or not – I feel each particular player should be dropped in those 15-team and 12-team formats, respectively. The key to these rankings, from 0-4, is as follows:

• 0 = Do not drop
• 1 = Team context dependent; probably should not be dropped on most teams
• 2 = Team context dependent; compelling arguments to drop and not drop
• 3 = Team context dependent; probably should be dropped on most teams
• 4 = Drop

Potential Hitter Drops

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Eloy Jimenez is out with an injury. Since his MLB debut, Jimenez has missed time due to the following injuries: ankle, elbow, hip, light-headedness, foot, foot, pectoral, groin, knee, hamstring, leg, elbow, leg, hamstring, appendix, leg, heel, groin, adductor and, earlier this week, hamstring. After Jimenez was placed on the IL, White Sox manager Pedro Grifol informed the media on Thursday that Jimenez would be out for an “extended period of time.”  Grifol went on to say, “Exactly how much time, who knows?” White Sox General Manager Chris Getz acknowledged that Jimenez could miss a month or more. Although Jimenez is capable of combining power and average – a combination that has been tantalizing fantasy managers for years – his actual production often has fallen short of expectations. This season, in 36 games (146 PA), Jimenez has 5 HR, 24 R+RBI, 3 SB and a .231 AVG. I question whether Jimenez’s future production will be worth stashing on your bench for a month or longer. Last season, Jimemez nearly matched his career high in games played with 120 and produced a mediocre 18/50/64/0/.272 stat line. Other than his rookie season (2019, the “juiced ball” season), Jimenez has never hit more than the 18 home runs he had in 2023. Even including 2019, he has never scored 70 runs or driven in 80 runs in a season, and given Chicago’s lineup, those streaks will continue. Given that Jimenez’s 3 SB are the only ones he’s had in the entirety of his career, it would be unwise to expect Jimenez to continue running (especially considering that his latest injury occurred on the basepaths). While Jimenez previously hit .296 and .295 in 2020 and 2022, respectively, he played fewer than 85 games in both seasons and his xBA every season has been between .248 and .278, consistent with his .271 career average. Thus, while Jimenez’s current .231 AVG likely will rise, it is far from certain he will generate a batting average that moves the needle this season. Finally, if Jimenez is stashed for a 4–6-week recovery period, how confident can fantasy managers be that he will play the rest of the season without reinjuring himself? Hope springs eternal, and I can understand managers in 15-team leagues with roster flexibility deciding to hold Jimenez (even though I would not do so), but think he is a clear drop in 12-team leagues.

In Week 6, Royals outfielder Dairon Blanco received increased playing time, compiling 14 AB, 6 H, 6 R, 1 HR, 2 RBI and 2 SB. Fantasy managers searching for stolen bases responded like Pavlov’s dog hearing a bell and scooped up the speedster in that weekend’s FAAB. In the last two weeks, however, Blanco only has 11 total AB and just one SB. Making matters worse, in Weeks 8 and 9, Blanco has 0 HR, 0 R and 1 RBI. For me, Blanco is an easy cut in 12- and 15-team formats. It does not appear that the Royals intend to use him as a starting outfielder, and given that his career-highs in HR, R and RBI are 3, 19 and 18, respectively, he is clearly a one-category contributor. Importantly, while Blanco does not play enough to materially impact fantasy teams’ batting averages one way or the other, placing him in your starting lineup will hurt your team in HR, R and RBI virtually every week. With four months to go in the season, it is way too early to sacrifice those three hitting categories merely to add an asset in the SB category. Irrespective of whether managers agree that it was a mistake to acquire Blanco in FAAB and start him for the last two weeks, they should not compound matters by continuing to start him or even roster him. If you are in dire need of stolen bases come August, and are sufficiently strong in HR, R and RBI that you can afford an extreme laggard in those categories, Blanco should be available in FAAB at that time.

Jordan Walker is a physically gifted, former high prospect for the St. Louis Cardinals. Walker debuted in the MLB last season while he was still 20 years old. Despite an approximate five-week demotion to the minors, Walker still compiled an impressive 16/51/51/7/.276 stat line in 117 games. While Walker was over-drafted in 2023 following a fantastic spring training, the fact that he was able to hit .276 in his rookie season when he was one of the youngest players in MLB is damn impressive. Unfortunately for his managers, after a tough start to the 2024 season, Walker was demoted on April 24, and he remains in the minors to this day. Initially, to the extent managers have stashed Walker for the past five weeks with nothing to show for it, that is a sunk cost and not relevant to whether he is a hold or drop moving forward. At the time of his demotion, Walker had 0 HR, 4 R, 4 RBI, 0 SB and a .155 AVG in 20 games (67 PA). Walker had a 26.9% K rate in those games, which was higher than his 2023 K rate of 22.4%. According to news reports, the Cardinals demoted Walker because they wanted him to work on getting more loft in his swing and to address pitch recognition issues that led to him struggling to start the season (ironically, Walker’s MLB launch angle was higher in 2024 than 2023). Thus far, Walker’s performance in Triple-A has been mixed. On the positive side, he is recognizing pitches better – he is hitting .273 with only a 15.6% K rate. On the negative side, Walker still is waiting on his first home run of 2024. Thus, in 163 PA between Triple-A and MLB, Walker has yet to homer, despite him having a 70/80 scouting grade for raw power. He is 3-for-22 this week and only has six extra base hits (five doubles and one triple) in 96 AB in Triple-A. While anything can happen here, including injuries that force the Cardinals’ hand, in the normal course I’m sure that St. Louis would prefer to see Walker dominate Triple-A in the hope that his next promotion is his last one. Walker does not necessarily need to go on a home run spree to be recalled, but I am skeptical he’s promoted with zero homers or only a single long ball under his belt. Whenever managers stash a minor leaguer, they need at least two things to happen to render such a strategy worthwhile: (1) the player needs to be promoted quickly (we now are at about five weeks and counting); and (2) upon being promoted, the player needs to live up to expectations. At this point, while Walker’s long-term future still looks bright, I lack confidence that his promotion is imminent or that he will be an impact bat upon his return. For me, Walker is a drop in 12-team leagues, and I also would drop him in 15-team leagues if needing the roster spot. For managers with roster flexibility and continued belief in Walker’s upside, rather than committing to hold Walker until the bitter end, I would evaluate him anew every week – research how he is performing in Triple-A and compare his projected near-term and long-term MLB production with the best options available in FAAB.

Brett Baty is gradually ceding playing time to Mark Vientos (who recently gained 3B eligibility). A former first-round draft pick, Baty has been a major disappointment thus far, with only 4 HR, 31 R+RBI, and a .229 AVG through 155 PA. Over his young career, Baty now has played in 164 games and only has 15 homers and a .215 AVG over 586 PA. Baty hits far too many ground balls, and his quality of contact has been weak (five barrels all season). Even if Baty maintains a part-time role with the team (I fear a demotion may be forthcoming if Vientos shows enough to claim the regular third base role), it is difficult to see Baty providing much value for his fantasy managers (who also will be challenged to know when to start him if his playing time remains sporadic). I think managers can do better in 12-team formats and should look to do so. In 15-team formats, third base has been challenging, although I would consider swapping Baty for Vientos now in the hopes of acquiring a more consistent power bat.

This week, the Padres’ Xander Bogaerts suffered a fractured left shoulder socket and is expected to miss 2-3 months. That is an exceptionally long recovery time, and Bogaerts’ limited fantasy production to date (4 HR, 37 R+RBI, 4 SB, .219 AVG) makes the recommendation to cut him in all formats an easy one. There really is no reason to linger over this call.

Jack Suwinski was demoted this week after struggling for most of the season. Suwinski had a “fantasy strong” 2023 season with 26 HR and 13 SB but has always struggled to hit for average. After batting .202 and .224 in 2022 and 2023, respectively, Suwinski was only hitting .174 (with 4 HR and 5 SB) at the time of his demotion. Ironically, Suwinski had slashed his strikeout rate this season (from 32.2% to 25.5%) but was undone by an unlucky .211 BABIP (compared to .290 last season). That noted, Suwinski’s quality of contact has been worse this season, with a material decline in HR/FB, and a Barrel% less than half that of his prior two seasons. When starting regularly, Suwinski is streaky, and many fantasy managers would be willing to sacrifice batting average (to some extent) in exchange for power and speed. Suwinski can provide managers neither, however, while toiling away in Triple-A and so represents an easy drop in all formats.

George Springer has been a solid or better fantasy outfielder for a long time. As recently as last season, he hit 21 home runs while stealing 20 bases and also chipped in 159 R+RBI with a .258 average. This season, however, Springer is struggling and so, too, are the Blue Jays. He has 7 SB, but only 3 HR and 26 R+RBI (only 9 RBI) in 197 PA. Making matters worse, Springer is hitting .188 and recently lost his role as the team’s leadoff hitter. Springer will turn 35 this September and, therefore, it is reasonable to wonder whether age is catching up to him. In all likelihood, it is to some extent, but given Springer’s long track record of production, it feels premature to drop him now, in either 15- or 12-team formats. Under the hood, Springer is maintaining a near-double-digit walk rate, and his strikeout rate currently would be a career low. He’s running, at least, and has yet to be caught stealing this season. Springer’s career BABIP is .297; thus far, it sits at .211, contributing to his low average (his xBA is .246). While Springer undoubtedly has been unlucky, he’s also been at fault for his lack of production. Springer is hitting way too many ground balls, and his current HR/FB, Barrel% and HardHit% all would be career lows if the season ended today. I think fantasy managers rostering Springer have real cause for concern, and the Blue Jays offense has been very disappointing, but dropping Springer now feels like a risky move that could come back to haunt managers. In his case, I’m admittedly placing a lot of faith (perhaps too much) in Springer’s long record of strong production. Although signs of age-related decline are evident, I do not expect his performance to continue falling off of a cliff.

Potential Pitcher Drops

Alex Lange was the Tigers’ closer in 2023, racking up 7 wins and 26 saves despite shaky control, including an ugly 15.6% BB rate. This season, despite 2 random saves, Lange has not been the Tigers closer and yet he is still is fairly widely owned in NFBC leagues notwithstanding suspect skills. Yes, Jason Foley’s performance, and velocity, have cooled since a hot start, but Foley still is the closer and has better skills than Lange. This season, Lange has a 4.34 ERA (5.04 SIERA) and a putrid 1.76 WHIP with an awful 18.9% BB rate. Put another way, Lange is walking over 8 batters per 9 innings. After throwing a mini-tantrum on the mound, prompting a public scolding from manager A.J. Hinch, Lange was demoted this week. If Lange’s lack of a closing role, questionable skills and horrendous control are not enough to convince managers to drop him, the demotion should eliminate any doubt that now is the time to cut him loose.

After missing most of the 2022-2023 seasons due to Tommy John Surgery, John Means started the season on the IL with a forearm injury. When Means was activated, he looked sharp, compiling two wins in four starts with a 2.61 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. Unfortunately for his fantasy managers, the Orioles put Means back on the IL this week with a left forearm strain. The latest report is that Means is currently seeking a second opinion, which is rarely a good sign. This is another case where it probably is safe to drop the player this week, but, if possessing roster flexibility, it also is reasonable to hold for one week in the hopes of getting a definitive diagnosis and recovery estimate. Means can be a solid pitcher; he lacks strikeout upside, but when healthy, usually puts up good ratios (especially WHIP thanks to excellent control). Plus, the Orioles are a strong team, and so their starters have a higher win probability than most. That noted, it is concerning that Means is on his second IL stint due to a forearm issue this season, especially so soon following Tommy John Surgery. The desire for a second medical opinion usually follows the receipt of bad news, and so I fear we have seen the last of Means for a while. Managers lacking roster flexibility or with an opportunity to add a difference-maker in FAAB should consider dropping Means now. (Note: When a player’s injury status appears ominous, but uncertainty exists, it sometimes is reasonable to wait a week for more information before finalizing a decision to drop that player. Importantly, however, this cautious approach makes more sense to me with elite players, like Spencer Strider, than a more marginal player like Means.

Now that his days as a starting pitcher have ended, Main Event fantasy managers are scooping up A.J. Puk. The rationale is that Puk was excellent in the bullpen last season and will assume the role as Marlins closer if and when Tanner Scott is traded or flounders badly. While either scenario is possible, I am skeptical of rostering Puk now for two reasons. First, Puk has been awful this season. Puk enters today’s games with a 9.00 ERA, a 2.41 WHIP and a walk rate that is considerably higher than his strikeout rate. I realize it’s only been 17 innings, but it is tough to do worse than Puk has this season and remain employed in the big leagues. To be fair, Puk truly was strong last season, finishing with 7 wins, 15 saves and a 26.9% K-BB%. Will Puk transform from this season’s ineptness to last season’s effective hurler merely by moving from the rotation back to the bullpen? Perhaps, but Puk’s most recent outing (3 ER in 0.2 IP) does not inspire confidence. For the sake of argument, however, assume that Puk will be appreciably better as a reliever than a starter. Does that make Puk worth rostering now? I’m not so sure. Yes, the Marlins traded Luis Arraez, but if Scott is going to be traded, it’s more likely than not such a transaction takes place close to the MLB trade deadline, which is more than two months away. There are not many compelling closer specs available right now and, for that reason, I can understand managers rostering Puk deciding to hold, but I’d be evaluating his performance every week and scouring FAAB for better alternatives.

Reid Detmers was fantastic in his first four starts this season. He accumulated 3 wins and allowed only 3 earned runs in 22.2 innings while compiling 30 strikeouts. Since then, a switch was flipped, and it is challenging to overstate how badly Detmers has performed. In his last six starts, Detmers is winless and has allowed 32 earned runs in 31.2 innings (and starts later today). The decline in Detmers’ performance has been so profound that I wonder whether he is pitching through an injury or tipping his pitches. Whatever the reason, I do not think Detmers can be started with confidence. In 12-team leagues, I’d drop him; in 15-team leagues, managers should consider stashing, but only if they have the roster space. When right, Detmers is a solid starter with real upside; unfortunately, we haven’t seen that player since late-April, and I do not know when he’s coming back.

Jon Gray was placed on the IL this week, but for me, he is a clear stash. While performing over his skis a bit, Gray is enjoying his best season, pitching to a 2.21 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over 57 innings. Gray has 56 strikeouts to 17 walks and, impressively, only has allowed two home runs all season. Gray’s injury is a groin strain, and so it has nothing to do with his arm, elbow or shoulder. The injury also has been described as mild, and there is some hope that Gray will be back after a minimum IL stint or very shortly thereafter. Gray is not an ace, but he is pitching like one, and there is plenty of room for him to regress some and still be a useful starter in 15- and 12-team formats.

Kodai Senga suffered a setback this week and has been shut down from throwing. Senga has missed the entire season with a posterior capsule strain, which is a fairly serious shoulder injury. It is too early to tell how severe the setback is; Senga was given an MRI and a cortisone shot, and was shut down but only for 3-5 days. At least as of now, it is too early to know whether Senga’s setback renders him a definite drop, although it is cause for a realistic evaluation of whether continuing to stash him is an optimal strategy (this evaluation should be forward-looking only; the time spent stashing Senga to date is a sunk cost and not relevant here). Senga’s latest setback is a clear signal that he is not close to returning. Senga still is experiencing pain, and it is uncertain whether the cortisone shot and a short period of rest will allow him to resume throwing without pain. Even if Senga is able to do so, fantasy managers are facing at least a 4–6-week rehab process (with the risk of further setbacks lurking behind every throwing session). Moreover, if Senga makes it back around the All-Star break – which is far from certain – there is no guarantee he will be able to pitch effectively, at least right away. I think there are better uses of roster spots in 12-team leagues; in 15-teamers, Senga is a risky stash and only should be attempted by managers who are willing and able to sacrifice a roster spot for six more weeks with no assurances of a meaningful payoff.

The Orioles’ Dean Kremer recently was placed on the IL with a right triceps strain. In discussing the injury, Baltimore Manager Brandon Hyde stated that: “We want to use some caution and put him on the IL, and [I’m] hoping that it’s not going to be very long.” Kremer is the type of pitcher who highlights the differences between 12- and 15-team leagues. Kremer is a serviceable starting pitcher on a very good team, but, in my opinion, nothing more. In 2023, Kremer pitched to a 4.12 ERA and 1.31 WHIP with 157 strikeouts in 172.2 innings – all of which are mediocre, but he also won 13 games. While Kremer’s WHIP has improved this season (1.12), he is benefitting from a lucky .215 BABIP and allowing more barrels and homers. In a 12-team league, I’d lean toward cutting Kremer; in that format, I’m just not sure he is worth stashing for 2-3 weeks (besides, there is nothing stopping managers from attempting to reacquire dropped players when circumstances change). In 15-team leagues, however, I do think Kremer is worth stashing, so long as the recovery period is no more than three weeks. In that format, Kremer probably is a start most weeks (except for the toughest of matchups) and, because the wins category can be excruciating at times, the fact that Kremer pitches for one of the best teams in baseball enhances his fantasy value to the point where he should not necessarily be dropped due to a 2-3 week absence.

Potential Disaster Starts

Set forth in the table below are starting pitchers I believe have real disaster potential for the coming week. In order to make this section of the column as actionable as possible, pitchers who are sparsely rostered have been excluded. Instead, I am going to challenge myself by focusing solely on pitchers who are at least 90% rostered in the Main Event or at least 60% rostered in the Online Championship. The pitchers are ranked from 1 to 10 for disaster potential in the coming week, with the highest numbers reflecting pitchers I am highly unlikely to start and who strike me as the biggest potential disasters.

Even with the challenge of limiting myself to widely-owned starters, last week was an embarrassingly bad week for me in picking pitching disasters. Readers would have been better off pulling a Costanza and doing the opposite of what I recommended. My projected disasters won four games with an ERA and WHIP that I’d happily sign-up for on all of my fantasy teams. My picks seemed solid on paper but, other than Andrew Heaney, all of them performed much better than expected (except for strikeouts). I have spent extra time this week identifying next week’s disasters and am determined to right the ship and redeem myself in this section of the column. In the interests of accountability, set forth below are the results of my “Disaster” picks thus far. Week 9 shows results through yesterday’s games and will be updated, if necessary, next week.