Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than any other sport. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Wednesday’s DFS slate.
1. The Baltimore Orioles hitters are third in baseball in strikeouts with 169
Both teams ahead of the Orioles have played one more game. This team strikes out a ton, and starters have been crushing in DFS against them. New York Yankees starter Jordan Montgomery has only an 18% K% in three starts to begin the year, but he had a 24% K% last year. Priced at $7,500 on Draftkings, Montgomery is the best value on the slate and one of the best pitchers to use on the slate period.
2. Ross Stripling has allowed a .242 ISO to right-handed batters since the beginning of last season
The Red Sox aren’t off to a good start this season. They’re 18th in the league in runs. Still, Boston is loaded with right-handed power threats to Ross Stripling in J.D. Martinez (.244 ISO against right-handed pitching since the start of last year), Xander Bogaerts (.221), Kiké Hernández (.197) and Trevor Story (.178). They should also have Rafael Devers (.327) back in the lineup after a day off Tuesday and he’s always in play.
(Build your MLB DFS lineup with our Optimizer!)
3. Mark Leiter Jr.’s FIP is 6.79 this year
It’s only been two starts, but Mark Leiter Jr. hasn’t been very good in his return to the majors (his ERA is 11.05). He’s walked at least two batters and allowed at least one home run in both of his starts. The Atlanta Braves lineup continues to be underpriced on Draftkings as Ozzie Albies and Matt Olson are the only hitters priced above Austin Riley ($4,100). Atlanta is my favorite value stack on this slate.
4. Shohei Ohtani has struck out 21 Houston Astros in 10.2 innings this year
Shohei Ohtani has faced the Astros twice in three starts this season and dominated them each time. That’s pretty impressive considering the strength of Houston’s lineup and familiarity with Ohtani after facing them multiple times last year. His last start was the most impressive as he struck out 12 Astros in Houston. Ohtani struggled on the road last season with a 5.02 ERA, so it was definitely a good sign to see him dominate on the road early this season. Against the Cleveland Guardians at home Wednesday, Ohtani is the top spend-up option at $9,000 on DraftKings.
5. The Detroit Tigers are tied for last in all of baseball in home runs with eight
While Ohtani is the top spend-up pitcher on this slate, do not sleep on Joe Ryan, who has a great matchup against the Tigers at home here. Ryan has a 1.69 ERA in three starts this year (3 earned runs allowed in 16 innings). He has completed at least six innings and struck out at least five batters in each of his last two starts. Ryan dominates right-handed hitters (33% K% 4% BB% against right-handed hitters since the start of last year) and the Tigers figure to have at least five lefties in the lineup, but I just don’t think this lineup has enough power right now to do much damage against Ryan.
6. The San Francisco Giants lead baseball in runs scored with 91
Something’s gotta give in this matchup of the Giants against Oakland Athletics starter Paul Blackburn. Blackburn has been a revelation in Oakland as he’s allowed just three earned runs in 15 innings over three starts this season. He’s been consistent going five innings in all three of his starts. While this may be his toughest matchup yet facing a Giants offense that is humming along at the moment, he has already faced the Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays who aren’t pushovers themselves. Blackburn is too expensive on Draftkings at $8,800, but he’s been good enough to keep me off the team leading the league in runs on this slate.
(More: Check out Vlad Sedler’s look at the Tuesday starting pitching slate in The Opener.)
7. Pablo López has 17.1 innings pitched over his three starts
That’s the highest inning total for anyone with only three starts in the National League. This after Pablo López dealt with major shoulder problems last year. It’s a really good sign for Lopez, who pitched great when he was healthy last year with a 3.07 ERA in 20 starts. He comes in as the highest-priced pitcher on Draftkings at $9,900 after going seven innings and striking out nine in his previous start. I don’t love the price or the matchup as the Washington Nationals figure to have mostly left-handed hitters in the lineup and they play in a hitters’ park, but he’s a top-five pitcher on this slate.
