Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than any other sport. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Tuesday’s DFS slate.
1. Luis García has a 4.37 xFIP
On a pitching-thin 11-game slate, Luis García appears to grade out a cut above the rest and will be the clear chalk SP1 Tuesday. At $9,500 on DraftKings, García is a home favorite against the Royals, who have an implied team run total of 3.17. He faced the Royals June 4 and allowed only two earned runs over seven innings while recording only two strikeouts. García has struck out at least five batters in each of his four starts since that game, but the Royals don’t strike out very often as a team as they’re next to last in the American League in strikeouts for hitters with 590. García has a 25% K% this season, and the Royals have five hitters in their projected lineup with at least a 20% K% against right-handed pitching this season. Garcia is a lock in cash games.
2. Ian Anderson has a 5.13 xFIP
Ian Anderson isn’t my favorite play, but as I mentioned already this slate is short on attractive pitching options. I’ve said before in articles and on streams that I don’t like playing Anderson because too often he fails to complete five innings and he hasn’t completed five innings in three of his last four starts. Still, looking at his season overall, Anderson has gone at least five innings in 11 of 15 starts. The Braves are home favorites against the Cardinals so it’s reasonable to expect Anderson to get the win here. He’ll be a contrarian tournament option at $8,500 on DraftKings.
3. Oakland is last in all of baseball with 2.46 runs per game at home
Yusei Kikuchi’s Blue Jays are a road favorite against the Athletics, and he’s struck out at least five batters in each of his last three appearances. In his last start at home against the Rays, he struck out eight over six innings while allowing only one earned run. The Athletics have been the worst offense in the league at home and have five hitters in their projected lineup with at least a 20% K% against left-handed pitching this season. Kikuchi gets a ballpark upgrade going to Oakland and at $7,800 on DraftKings is my second-favorite pitcher behind Garcia overall.
4. Alex Wood has a 3.82 xFIP
Alex Wood has completed at least five innings while allowing three earned runs or less in six of his last seven starts. He’s in the expensive tier at $9,200 on DraftKings, but that should keep his rostership low. The Giants are road favorites in Arizona. While Wood is getting a park downgrade going to Arizona, there’s potentially a lot of strikeout upside in this lineup as six hitters in the projected Diamondbacks lineup have at least a 26% K% against left-handed pitching this season. Wood has a 22% K% and has recorded at least four strikeouts in 13 of 15 starts this season.
5. Cal Quantrill has a 5.38 xFIP
Cal Quantrill has a 3.72 ERA, but his xFIP is much higher. He has a home and road split as he has a 4.41 ERA on the road compared to 3.24 ERA at home. The Tigers offense has been terrible this year as they’re second to last in all of baseball in runs per game at home (3.36), but they’re all very cheap. Eric Haase is the most expensive bat at $4,000 on DraftKings, but he is a must in Tigers stacks batting cleanup after a home run Monday, and he has a .211 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Riley Greene batting leadoff at $2,500 on DraftKings is one of the best value plays on the entire slate. Jonathan Schoop at $2,700 is another interesting play as he had six hits over the course of a doubleheader Monday. The Tigers are my favorite value stack on the slate.
6. Paolo Espino has a 4.84 xFIP
Paolo Espino has allowed at least one home run in each of his last three starts. One of those starts was against the Phillies where he allowed three runs (only two earned) while striking out five and walking four over five innings. Even without Bryce Harper, I think we can stack the Phillies up here. Kyle Schwarber has a .311 ISO against right-handed pitching this year and Rhys Hoskins is also above .200. Nick Castellanos is still cheap on DraftKings at $3,800 and Darick Hall, who has a .500 ISO in a tiny 18 plate appearance sample against right-handed pitching this year, is $2,700. It’s a shame you can’t play Hoskins and Hall together on DraftKings as both are only eligible at first base.
7. Drew Hutchison has a 6.55 xFIP
Drew Hutchison has only started four games at the major league level in the last two years. He’s failed to complete five innings in all four starts, but he’s only allowed more than three runs once. That game was against the Guardians at Comerica Park last year, when he allowed six runs, though only three were earned. Josh Naylor might not be in the lineup for Cleveland after leaving Monday’s game with a back injury, but Steven Kwan, Amed Rosario, José Ramírez, Franmil Reyes, and Andrés Giménez are enough for the full Guardians stack here. The Guardians are one of my favorite stacks overall on this slate and I definitely think a game stack is viable here with taking some bats from the Tigers too.
