Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Baseball lends itself to numerical intrigue — there have long been bountiful statistics surrounding the game, and in today’s analytics-heavy version of the game, there are more numbers than ever before. Knowing what numbers are meaningful and from which actionable information can be ascertained can make all the difference. The margins have never been thinner, and the impact of every discernible edge has never been more pronounced.
Here are some of the numbers that jump out at me when taking a look at Tuesday’s DFS slate.
1. -18.4
This was Dallas Keuchel‘s DK score in his previous start. I know that’s not really a baseball stat, but it’s the lowest (most negative?) number I can recall a pitcher putting up. Things went poorly. It could have been even worse as only 7 of the 10 runs he gave up in his singular inning of work were earned (he did pitch in the second inning but didn’t record an out). Even the hits he allowed were not going his way, as he (and the defense behind him) allowed a BABIP of .600, which is roughly double what we would expect a baseline number for BABIP to be. Further, Keuchel has not become a different or worse pitcher — he is throwing at the same limited velocity (87 MPH) he always has, and getting the same massive ground ball share of batted balls (59%) that he always has. So while It’s possible if not likely the industry will look to stack against Keuchel given his disastrous last outing, this is recency bias at its best. Unless you’re expecting the White Sox to make 4 errors in the first two innings and make their ground specialist work far harder to get outs than he reasonably should, expecting a similar result is setting ourselves up for failure.
2. 45.8, .595
These are Byron Buxton’s hard contact rate and ISO, respectively. You didn’t need me to tell you Byron Buxton was good. You saw what he did to Liam Hendriks Sunday. But these are ridiculous numbers. The highest ISO for a single season is Barry Bonds in 2001 at .536; the next highest is Babe Ruth in 1920 at .472. Buxton (in a small sample size) is having a better season displaying power than the best season for the best power hitter that ever lived. It would be ludicrous to expect him to continue this for a season, but it’s possible he will at least for now, and we’re going to want to pay attention. Eduardo Rodriguez is a fine middle-of-the-rotation guy, but Buxton comes into this matchup on a heater and will be looking to do damage. Without a ton of outlier stacking opportunities, the upside of Buxton is very appealing even considering his high price.
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3. 25%
This particularly round number is Max Fried’s infield fly ball rate. Probably not a stat that is looked at frequently, but it’s a pretty good indicator of a pitcher’s ability to induce weak contact (I realize that batted ball data also does this) but also that a hitter did something they definitively didn’t want to do. Some hitters try to hit ground balls because the situation dictates it or they have more speed than power. Some hitters try to hit fly balls because they have lots of power and want to hit home runs. Zero hitters are ever attempting to hit infield fly balls. Joey Votto is famously adept at avoiding them- he has a 1.6% IFFB rate for his career. So at 25%, which is the third-highest IFFB in MLB, Fried is better at generating this specific negative hitter outcome than almost anyone else. He’s also no slouch at generating strikeouts, doing so at a 24% clip so far this season. Between the infield fly balls and the Ks, Max is generating a ton of negative outcomes for opposing hitters, which makes him extremely compelling for Tuesday’s slate.
4. 44.6%
It probably isn’t particularly easy to believe, but this is Carlos Rodón’s K% thus far. That is astounding and unsustainable, but it also is exactly what he is doing over his three-start sample. He also gets to face an A’s offense that is full of retreads, has-beens and no-names, further increasing his appeal. Much like Corbin Burnes was the lock of all locks even at any exorbitant price on last night’s slate, the same scenario plays out here for Rodón. Hard to envision an outing where he does anything but dominate, time to push all the chips in the middle.
5. 1.179
Extremely specific scenario in an extremely small sample size, but this is approaching significant as this is Anthony Rizzo’s ISO when facing an RHP at home, as he will be against Jordan Lyles. Hard to attribute a particular cause to Rizzo excelling this and only this specific scenario, but there’s got to be a certain increase in confidence that Rizzo has when attacking a short porch against RHP, but this is a big jump from all other scenarios (and his OPS against RHP on the road is actually lower than his OPS against LHP). I don’t usually make HR calls in these parts, but I’ve got a feeling about Rizzo Tuesday.
6. 54.5%
This is Daniel Lynch’s eye-popping fly-ball rate so far this season. Lynch isn’t a qualified pitcher as he’s only made two starts thus far, but if he was, he would have the fourth-highest fly ball rate in MLB. This isn’t necessarily bad — Joe Ryan is first on this list and Carlos Rodón is third — but it is decidedly out of character for Lynch, who for his minor league career had a pronounced ground ball lean. This tells me we are dealing with what is likely just some small sample noise, and as the numbers even out a bit, Lynch will be much more successful and efficient. Tuesday likely isn’t a spot where we want to target him against a powerful and primarily right handed White Sox lineup, but we should pay close attention to his results and see if they begin to normalize.
(More: Check out Vlad Sedler’s look at the Tuesday starting pitching slate in The Opener.)
7. 8.3%, 32.3%
Taylor Hearn’s soft contact rate and the Astros hard contact rate, respectively. Probably don’t need a ton of analysis here. Hearn should absolutely get lit up, and while the Astros are missing Jose Altuve (and obviously no longer have George Springer and Carlos Correa from years past), they are still a bunch of mashers especially when it comes to hitting bad LHP, which Hearn is starting to show us he probably is (at least this version of him that is stretched out as a starter). My primary focus will be on Alex Bregman, Yuli Gurriel and whomever is hitting leadoff between Jeremy Peña and Chas McCormick, but you can also look to Michael Brantley who always seems to be driving in or scoring runs, or Yordan Alvarez, who has a .310 ISO so far this season as LHBs to sprinkle into your RHB stack.
