Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Baseball lends itself to numerical intrigue — there have long been bountiful statistics surrounding the game, and in today’s analytics-heavy version of the game, there are more numbers than ever before. Knowing what numbers are meaningful and from which actionable information can be ascertained can make all the difference. The margins have never been thinner, and the impact of every discernible edge has never been more pronounced. Here are some of the numbers that jump out at me when taking a look at Wednesday’s DFS slate.
1. 34.1%
It’s a shame that Jon Gray has had more than 70% of his starts this season on the road, because he has been light’s out at home. Globe Life Field has been a very pitcher-friendly park since it opened in 2020, but Gray’s comfort level at home is taken up a notch with his 34.1% K rate, which is 10% higher than his K rate on the road.
2. 13
Aaron Judge is coming off an absolutely impeccable month of July where he smacked 13 home runs while batting .344/.449/.833. In my eyes, he’s in a firm position to take home the AL MVP, which is a pretty damn nice thing to take home in a contract year.
3. 11.5% and 2.4%
If Brad Keller can figure out his command, he could really take his game to another level. It’s the one thing that really keeps him from being an above-average pitcher. He’s coming off five starts made in July where he put together a terrible 11.5% walk rate but also gave up just a paltry 2.4% barrel rate.
4. 30.9%
When you look at the Houston Astros, you rarely ever think of them as a team you’ll target against, but they’ve definitely struggled at the plate throughout the month of July. There are more holes in the Astros lineup than you’d imagine, and that has contributed to their league-worst 30.9% K rate against righties in the month of July. Nathan Eovaldi will likely have next to no ownership thanks to his last few volatile outings, but the upside and leverage is there if you want to take the risk.
5. 35.7%
Max Scherzer makes his long-awaited return to Washington D.C. tonight in a matchup against his old friend, Patrick Corbin. With Scherzer at 38 years of age, it’s understandable why there’s a fear of a major dropoff from Mad Max, but he has been outstanding since coming back from the IL. He’s now stretched out to throw around 100 pitches and should be able to make good use of it considering he ended the month of July with a 35.7% K rate.
6. 97.7%
I think Steven Kwan has a bright future in the major leagues. He has gained full trust from Guardians management and is coming off the best month of his career where he is taking a 13-game hitting streak into August. He has outstanding plate discipline as we can see by his 33 walks and 32 strikeouts in 329 at-bats this season. But one of the more impressive things is his 97.7% Z-Contact rate (contact on pitches in the strike zone). Don’t sleep on Kwan if you want a safe one-off in your lineup.
7. 26.9% and 53.8%
Based on everything I can gather, Yankees fans just do not like Domingo Germán. There’s plenty of reasons for them to feel this way, and it isn’t all based on things we see on the field. He also hasn’t looked too great in his first two starts of the season. One very concerning thing for him is his low ground-ball rate and his high fly-ball rate, which at 26.9% and 53.8%, respectively, are both the lowest and highest of his career. Again, this is all just based on two starts, but it’s something to consider as he makes his first start of the season AT HOME in the very home-run friendly Yankee Stadium.
