Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Baseball lends itself to numerical intrigue — there have long been bountiful statistics surrounding the game, and in today’s analytics-heavy version of the game, there are more numbers than ever before. Knowing what numbers are meaningful and from which actionable information can be ascertained can make all the difference. The margins have never been thinner, and the impact of every discernible edge has never been more pronounced. Here are some of the numbers that jump out at me when taking a look at Monday’s DFS slate.
1. 23%
The month of June has been very kind to Ryan Mountcastle. He is making superb contact with the ball, and for a guy like him to make good contact with the ball, we’re finally seeing consistency in his approach at the plate. He’s coming off a stellar week of play and is working a seven-game hitting streak with extra-base hits galore. His 23% barrel rate is good for fifth in the entire league. It’s slim pickings with the early game slate today, but I definitely have Mountcastle as one of my top bats.
2. 4.80
Speaking of the early slate, the pitching options leave a lot to be desired as well. It’s to the point where Dean Kremer is looking like the top pitcher of the day. While Kremer has looked outstanding over the last few weeks of play, the underlying stats definitely suggest regression is in play. He has a 4.80 xERA, which is quite lopsided for someone sporting a 1.29 ERA. It doesn’t change that he’s a good option for today’s contest against the Rangers, but it might encourage you to open up your pitcher pool a little bit more, because a guy with a 4.80 xERA and 10.8% K rate is certainly not someone who should ever be 80% owned.
3. .396 and .300
Paul Goldschmidt is putting together a potential MVP-level campaign, but it should be noted that the vast majority of his numbers are being generated at home. He has a .396 AVG, .524 wOBA and .381 ISO at home compared to .300 AVG, .381 WOA and .200 ISO on the road, which unsurprisingly also explains the 15 HR at home and 4 HR on the road.
4. 1.66
Through 59 2/3 innings of MLB play, Jonathan Heasley has had trouble keeping the ball in the yard. His 42.8% fly-ball rate is part of the reason why he has had a 1.66 HR/9. A road matchup against the Astros is not exactly the best situation for him, so this might end up being an optimal spot to attack.
5. 3.8%
Alek Manoah’s 3.8% barrel rate is second lowest among starting pitchers in the entire league. Manoah has consistently been able to limit big innings from his opponents, and limiting barrels is certainly a reason why he has only allowed more than two earned runs in two of his 15 starts this season. The Blue Jays travel to one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball (Oakland), which should position Manoah as one of the highest-owned pitchers of the day (and rightfully so).
6. 28.9% and 10.8%
Hunter Greene’s transition to the Majors hasn’t gone exactly as expected for the 22-year-old youngster. He doesn’t really throw anything beyond his fastball and slider combination, which really makes you wonder what could happen if he can develop another pitch, because his 28.9% K rate is off the charts. Unfortunately, his 10.8% barrel rate combined with the velocity he naturally contributes with his 100+ MPH heat has resulted in a massive HR/9 of 2.43.
7. .357
MLB’s best team against southpaws has been the Colorado Rockies. Their .357 team wOBA is the best in baseball, and they’ve been able to put together some solid performances against Julio Urías in the past. CJ Cron, in particular, has a career .941 xSLG and .567 xwOBA to go with his 2 HR in 17 at-bats against the Dodgers left-hander.
