College Football Props of the Week: Week 4
Walter Waddell
Baseball lends itself to numerical intrigue — there have long been bountiful statistics surrounding the game, and in today’s analytics-heavy version of the game, there are more numbers than ever before. Knowing what numbers are meaningful and from which actionable information can be ascertained can make all the difference. The margins have never been thinner, and the impact of every discernible edge has never been more pronounced. Here are some of the numbers that jump out at me when taking a look at Monday’s DFS slate.
1. 1.94 and 4.24
We’ve seemingly always had to track whether a given Jon Gray start is at home or away. He’s no longer a member of the Colorado Rockies, but in his small eight-game sample size in 2022, it is clear that he’s a different pitcher away from Globe Life Park. His 1.94 xFIP at home really magnifies how much more comfortable he feels in Arlington compared to his 4.24 xFIP on the road. I wouldn’t be surprised if he can piggyback off his outstanding outing last Wednesday against the Rays, but with his salary at just $6,600 on DraftKings Monday, I think I’m going to be underweight given the circumstances.
2. 1.200
Yordan Alvarez has been a monster over the last week — reaching base safely at least two times in each of his last seven starts — and is rocking a 1.200 slugging percentage in the month of June. Given the lefty vs. lefty situation vs. Seattle’s Robbie Ray, I expect Alvarez to have much lower rostership numbers than he probably should. In GPPs, you’re always looking to find ways to gain leverage against the field, and this looks to be a great spot considering Ray also struggles away from home.
3. .448
You probably would never believe it, but Santiago Espinal is one of the best lefty mashers in all of baseball. His .448 wOBA against southpaws ranks eighth in all of baseball, and he gets a matchup against a weak lefty here in Daniel Lynch.
4. 55.2%
Speaking of lefty mashing, you definitely need to check out J.D. Davis JD Davis. He gets matched up against Blake Snell of the Padres, and that low key might be enough for me to pull the trigger, considering Davis has a ridiculous 55.2% hard hit rate against lefties this season. Usually hard hit rate tends to correlate with the other traditional batting categories, but his .227/.320/.273 line against lefties this season is certainly misleading.
5. .659 and 1.133
The Angels appear to be a broken team right now, and that somehow includes the best player in this generation, Mike Trout. Trout and the Angels are coming off their worst road trip in team history, and Trout hasn’t even gotten a base hit in seven consecutive games. A nice long homestand might just be what the doctor ordered. Trout has a putrid .659 OPS when playing away from Angel Stadium, but happens to have a 1.133 OPS (.441 OBP and .691 SLG) when playing in Anaheim. Again, leverage is the name of the game when I’m entering MLB GPPs, and I am going to be taking a shot with 5% rostered Mike Trout every day of the week.
6. .206
With that said, it should absolutely be noted that the Angels have truly redefined the word “terrible” lately. You have to consider that they are coming off of a weeklong road swing in two very good hitter’s ballparks (against the Yankees and Phillies) and having just about nothing to show for it. .206 happens to be their team wOBA since the start of June (Wednesday), which certainly magnifies how terrible they’ve been. If you don’t have the nerve to play Mike Trout, then you better have the nerve to take a shot with Michael Wacha in a lineup or two.
7. 94%
Considering Monday’s main slate is only scheduled to have six games, we definitely need to carefully examine every situation. Unfortunately, as of the time this article was drafted, Accuweather is reporting a 94% chance of precipitation and 41% chance of thunderstorms at the Great American Ballpark, which does suggest that the D-Backs/Reds game could very well be postponed. Keep an eye out on updated weather reports prior to locking in your lineups.
