Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than in any other sport. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to today’s DFS slate.
1. Walker Buehler has a 24.8% CSW in the last 30 days, over four percentage points below his baseline
As always, a refresher: CSW is the percentage of pitches resulting in a called strike or whiff. It stabilizes faster than ERA indicators like SIERA and xFIP, so it’s a better measure of “recent form.” On the surface, Walker Buehler is definitely the best pitcher on this slate, which will lead to popularity. Additionally, Pittsburgh is second-worst on the slate in both wRC+ and wOBA. However, they walk a decent amount, and Buehler’s CSW trend is concerning to me.
I’ll happily fade this chalk.
2. Zac Gallen is first in the majors in Frank Brank’s xERA and aERA
The matchup with the defending world champs will keep his ownership in check, but I’m comfortable with Zac Gallen even if he’s the most popular option tonight. He’s first by a wide margin in projected Ks and at each threshold probability in the Strikeout Model.
3. Aaron Ashby has a 19.1% K rate and 4.41 xFIP as a starter
This is a massive deviation from his overall 27.8% K rate and 3.27 xFIP in the last two years. The Strikeout Model is almost certainly over-projecting him as a result, but I won’t quite rule him out. Chicago is a strikeout-happy lineup, and you never know what kind of lineup they’ll roll out tonight in Game 2 of their doubleheader. A weak order will put him back into consideration for me.
The last point about Ashby is that his high ground-ball rate will help neutralize the effect of the Wrigley wind blowing out.
4. Spencer Strider has a 2.69 SIERA and a 35.6% K rate
Four stats in and we haven’t even begun to discuss stacks! That’s no accident, as this slate is one of the most difficult slates of the year in terms of the pitching landscape. Spencer Strider is an incredible pitcher, but we have two question marks surrounding his viability tonight. First, he’s thrown exclusively out of the bullpen this year, so just as it has for Ashby, the move to a starting role could have an adverse effect on all of his numbers. Second, he’s topped out at four innings and 71 pitches in his relief appearances. I have him capped at 75 pitches tonight, but I suppose there’s a chance his leash is slightly longer than that.
He also posted a 35%+ K rate in AA as a pure starter last year, so I’m not overly concerned about his move back into a starter’s role, particularly since we don’t expect him to work deep into the game.
5. Drew Smyly has a baseline ISO allowed of .200
.200 is the unofficial line between pretty bad and awful. The kicker is the wind in Wrigley today. It’s blowing out to left at over 20 mph, creating one of, if not the single best home run environments in all of baseball. Drew Smyly has a career 9% barrel rate allowed, and as if that isn’t high enough, it’s been even higher in each of the past three seasons. This is precisely what you don’t want when trying to keep the ball inside the park in these Wrigley winds.
The Brewers will be chalk, but good chalk.
6. In the last 14 days, Boston has a .417 wOBA and 176 wRC+
For context, second place is at .370 and 141 (LAD). They’re priced up of course, but it appears as though the wind in Wrigley will pull ownership away from the best offense in baseball right now against Tyler Wells and his career 9.7% barrel rate. Yes please!
7. In the last 14 days, Texas is fifth in HRs and second in SBs
At long last, the Texas offense has awoken, showing the all-around event upside we expected to see from them. These guys are hot:
In fact, it’s even more impressive when zooming in to just the past week:
Drew Rasmussen is a solid pitcher, but his CSW is down to just 24.3% in the last 30 days, so the converted reliever may have some rough roads ahead of him. Texas is easily my favorite contrarian stack of the night.
