MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 7/24)
Josh Gross
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than in any other sport. These are the four stats I find most relevant to Monday’s 10-game DFS slate.
1. Jordan Lyles has allowed the most home runs since the start of 2020.
Jordan Lyles has allowed a league-high 55 bombs since the start of 2021. He coughed up a career-high 38 dingers last season and has already allowed five this season. Five doesn’t seem like a lot considering his previous seasons, but three of those five bombs came in one start in New York on April 26. Lyles allowed six runs on seven hits over 4.2 innings. Tonight will be the fourth start he’s had against the Yankees this season (17 IP, 18 H, 9 ER, 3 HR). Lyles has a 6.64 ERA in 20.1 road innings compared to a 2.10 ERA in 25.2 home innings this season. Lefty bats have the higher hard-hit rate and fly-ball rate against Lyles. Four of the five homers he’s allowed have been to lefties, so consider Anthony Rizzo in your NYY stack.
2. Joan Adon has issued a league-high 23 walks.
Joan Adon enters start number nine on the season with a 31:23 K:BB, 6.38 ERA and 84% contact rate (seventh-highest). It’s no surprise the Los Angeles Dodgers have the highest team implied total on the slate today. Adon has surrendered 37 hits, 26 runs and five homers in his 36.2 innings. He’s allowed at least three runs in six of his eight starts and has walked 13 batters over his last four games. When you’re walking 5.65 batters per nine innings, you’re going to find yourself in a lot of trouble, especially against this Dodgers squad. Los Angeles has the highest walk rate (11%) in the bigs and has the fourth-highest contact rate.
3. Gerrit Cole has 51 strikeouts in his last six starts against Baltimore.
The Yankees ace has racked up 51 punchouts in his last 39 innings against the Orioles. He’s only allowed seven earned runs over that span and has tossed 14 straight scoreless innings at home against Baltimore. Gerrit Cole enters tonight’s start with a solid 51:12 K:BB over 43.2 innings and has a decent 2.78 ERA in 22.2 home innings. It’s worth noting that his 28.5 K% is the lowest it’s been since 2017 with the Pittsburgh Pirates, and he only had five strikeouts against BAL last week. He should live in the 7K range tonight, as the O’s have the third-highest SwStr%.
4. Triston McKenzie has a slate-high 52.4% fly-ball rate.
Triston McKenzie’s 48% fly-ball rate last season led to 21 home runs in 120 innings. His FB% has increased this season (fourth-highest overall), but he’s only allowed three home runs. Two of those three homers came in his last start, though, and now he draws a very tough Houston Astros team. McKenzie has limited the walks this season, but they’re starting to creep back into his game and have haunted him in the past (3.7 BB/9 for his career).
5. Paul Goldschmidt leads baseball in hits and total bases over the last 14 days.
Paul Goldschmidt has 23 hits, four home runs, 18 RBI and 44 total bases over the last two weeks. He’s hitting .460 over that span and enters tonight’s game on a 14-game hitting streak. He has eight multi-hit games over this current run with 16 extra-base hits. He gets to see pitches from José Berríos, who has looked awful for most of the season. Berrios has a career-low 6.15 K/9, 15.3 K% and 7.9 SwStr%. He’s coughed up 48 hits and 22 runs in 41 innings (4.83 ERA). His 83.2% contact rate is the 10th-highest mark in the game, and his 12.8% barrel rate ranks seventh.
6. The Phillies rank second in home runs vs. LHP.
The Phillies have 17 bombs against southpaws, which is one off the league high. They’re third in OPS (.762), third in ISO (.193), third in SLG (.445) and fourth in wOBA (.335) against lefties. Left-handed batters Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber are tied with Ryhs Hoskins for the team lead in home runs against LHP, but I’m very interested in Nick Castellanos. The former Reds slugger carries a team-high .366 AVG and 15 hits against lefties into tonight’s matchup. He’ll hit cleanup against Tucker Davidson, who has allowed 26 hits, 15 runs, 17 walks and four home runs in 29.1 career innings. Davidson has issued five walks and five runs in 7.2 innings this season and has a 48% fly-ball rate. The bombs are coming, and they could come tonight.
7. Beau Brieske has a 2.39 HR/9 mark this season.
That number is the fourth-highest among pitchers with 20 innings this season. Beau Brieske has allowed seven bombs and 15 runs on 24 hits over his 26.1 innings this season. He has a ridiculously low 6.4 SwStr% and alarmingly high 87.3% contact rate. He’s also rocking a sky-high 50% fly-ball rate. Byron Buxton has a team-high six home runs and 69 FB% vs RHP. Luis Arraez leads Minnesota in hits (30), AVG (.366), wOBA (.413) and wRC+ (176) against righties. He should be able to get on base for Carlos Correa, Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler, who has four home runs vs. RHP.
