Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Baseball lends itself to numerical intrigue — there have long been bountiful statistics surrounding the game, and in today’s analytics-heavy version of the game, there are more numbers than ever before. Knowing what numbers are meaningful and from which actionable information can be ascertained can make all the difference. The margins have never been thinner, and the impact of every discernible edge has never been more pronounced. Here are some of the numbers that jump out at me when taking a look at Friday’s DFS slate.
1. 40.4% and 26.8%
This is an interesting case of an extremely movable object colliding with an extremely stoppable force. I think I did the opposite metaphor thing correctly. Usually when you are talking about two matchups wherein the combatants will be utilizing relative areas of strength, the saying goes that it is an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object, or something along those lines. In this case, we instead get Nathan Eovaldi, who allows the highest hard hit rate in all of baseball, and the Oakland A’s, who have amassed the third-lowest hard hit rate. So who do we think will come out on top in this battle of hard contact ineptitude?
For starters, Eovaldi is by most accounts a pretty good pitcher, the hard contact notwithstanding. He brings a 25% K rate to the table alongside an absurdly low 3.8% BB rate, so the odds are that you will have to beat him in order to get on pass, not much in the way of cheap baserunners. However, unsurprisingly along with the massive 40.4% hard contact rate, Eovaldi also has a 25.8% HR/FB rate, which yes, is also tops in MLB. The A’s, unsurprisingly as well, have the third-fewest home runs in baseball.
Vegas has this one as a low-scoring affair, and that probably seems right with the game taking place in Oakland instead of Boston, and with Eovaldi putting together two very solid starts in a row prior to this one, including his first career complete game. Rarely does a pitcher who is so exploitable come across an offense so ill-equipped to exploit his vulnerability. A fascinating clash should play out.
2. 12.5%
That was Chi Chi González’ K% last we heard from him as a big league pitcher in 2021. He’s actually fared decently well in the Twins organization, putting up multiple quality starts in AAA and striking out as many as 7 in a few of those starts. But this is still Chi Chi, he of the absurdly low K% and high hard contact rate. He also gets a Blue Jays matchup that, while not as fearsome as perhaps we initially thought to begin the season, still features some extremely dangerous bats in Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., as well as the increasingly difficult to get out Santiago Espinal.
While González has upped his K% to 23.2% thus far in a small sample of AAA ball, he is unlikely to continue this run of success against tough MLB hitters. If you think that on the other hand he has revamped his approach such that this new found elusiveness is sustainable, then González himself might be an interesting value option at the bare minimum for any SP of $4K.
3. 10.8%
This is Brady Singer’s changeup usage thus far, which is indicative of him taking the next leap as a starter. This would be an extremely stones play, as using any SP against the powerful Astros lineup can always end in disaster, but the Astros are also yet to see this version of Singer.
Additionally, since Singer’s pricing is so close to Eovaldi whom we expect will garner a decent amount of rostership, Singer is an intriguing pivot if we don’t want to eat the obvious Eovaldi chalk, or possibly a value pairing if you want to build some expensive stacks with premium bats.
4. 8.3%
This is Chad Kuhl’s K% against RHB at home (i.e. pitching at Coors Field). If you’re not striking guys out at Coors, it’s going to be a bad time. The Braves also have the power and hard contact ability to punish a “pitch to contact” approach as we saw them obliterate Austin Gomber Thursday night. In years past we wouldn’t have had to delve too deep into the numbers to know to stack against Kuhl at Coors, but he’s been misleadingly good on the surface so far this season, including sometimes at home.
That probably stops here, and you can comfortably stack Braves against him, although you will be far from alone in doing so. After Thursday night’s explosion, the Braves will be awfully popular. You can differentiate some by focusing your efforts on RHBs, as Kuhl has exhibited some reverse splits tendencies when pitching at Coors thus far.
5. 32.5% and 3.3%
These are Gerrit Cole’s K% and BB% at home, respectively, which are both markedly better than their road counterparts. Whether this is small simple size aberration or a function of him being more focused and aggressive at home, we won’t know for sure. But it does appear to be an observed split for the moment, and getting a matchup full of inexperienced and replacement leve- players like the Tigers is just another feather in his cap. You probably know the Tigers are bad, but to help quantify that a bit, they have the eighth-highest K%, the second lowest BB%, and the lowest ISO. Translation — Gerrit Cole should absolutely dominate on the slate.
He is of course the most expensive option of a number of good options, but no one else has quite this combination of elite matchup within favored split and what is likely to be plenty of run support.
6. 36.3%, 52.7%, 65.9%
These are Shane McClanahan’s K%, GB% and medium contact rate, respectively. K% and medium contact rate are best in MLB, and the GB% is of course well above average. If you’re striking everyone out, walking almost no one (he also has a 5.4% BB rate), and avoiding hard contact to an extreme degree while inducing lots of ground balls, turns out it is really tough for hitters to get on base.
Now — the matchup is not as good as Cole’s. The White Sox, while they have not exceeded expectations or come close to meeting them, and are suffering from injury, are still quite a bit better than the Tigers. However — McClanahan comes at a significant savings to Cole and is pitching in a much more pitcher friendly park, despite what we just discussed with Cole’s success at home. So there’s a choice to be made here, and both options are quite good. I probably still lean Cole, but there are strong arguments on each side.
7. .174
This is the Yankees’ ISO thus far this season, good for second in baseball, and it is worth noting they are also first in home runs with 73, and 42 of those have come at home. Yes, they are without slugger Giancarlo Stanton, but that didn’t keep them from hitting 4 home runs in the first half of a doubleheader Thursday — when facing Shohei Ohtani, no less.
Matt Carpenter has been a revelation and has seemingly homered every game since joining the ranks of the Yanks, Gleyber Torres has been resurgent over the last month’s worth of play, Aaron Judge continues his MVP candidacy, and DJ LeMahieu continues to contribute solidly, while Isiah Kiner-Falefa has settled into an OBP/sparkplug role for which his skill set is ideally suited. While this will likely be a popular option, given their matchup with a fringe SP, the rostership should be spread out enough on a large 12 game slate with a Coors game that we shouldn’t have to worry too much about the Yankees in too many of our opponents’ lineups.
