Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than any other sport. These are the five stats I find most relevant to Wednesday’s DFS slate.
1. Lance Lynn has struck out 14 hitters over his last two starts
Lance Lynn has only won one of his nine starts since returning from the injured list for the White Sox. Still, he’s facing a Royals offense that is 22nd in baseball averaging 4.10 runs per game on the road. Kansas City’s offense isn’t known for being strikeout heavy, but it looks to have become that way by this point in the season as seven hitters in the projected Royals lineup have at least a 20% K% against right-handed pitching this season. Lynn has a 29% K% against right-handed batters compared to just a 17% K% against left-handed batters so ultimately his upside could be capped considering the Royals have five left-handed hitters in their projected lineup — including Vinnie Pasquantino and Nicky Lopez — who each have a K% below 20% against right-handed pitching.
2. Gerrit Cole has a 32.5% K%
No need to overthink this one — Gerrit Cole is the best pitcher on the board here. Despite being the most expensive pitcher on the slate at $10,500 on DraftKings, Cole’s projection towers above the other options here. He’s at home facing the Mariners, who are 21st in all of baseball averaging 4.11 runs per game on the road this season. Cole has been exceptional at home this year as he has a 2.55 ERA at home compared to 4.28 on the road. Three of his six July starts came on the road and he had a 4.03 ERA for the month with 51 strikeouts in 38 innings.
3. Rich Hill has a 4.96 xFIP
This is the Houston Astros’ bread and butter right here facing a weak left-handed pitcher at home. Rich Hill hasn’t pitched since July 1, so it’s possible he’s not long for the game and the Astros get into the Red Sox’ bullpen early. Hill has allowed a .201 ISO to right-handed batters this season. Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Christian Vázquez and Jeremy Peña each have ISOs above .190 against left-handed pitching this season. Newly acquired Trey Mancini is $3,100 on DraftKings and with eligibility at first base and outfield. I believe he’s also in play here. Alex Bregman has a .234 career ISO against left-handed pitching and a career .205 ISO at home.
4. Tyler Alexander has a 5.72 xFIP
Tyler Alexander made four starts in April for the Tigers but hadn’t started a game since then until five days ago, when he lasted four innings while giving up two earned runs and one home run against the Blue Jays on the road. Now he’s facing the Twins, who don’t have a lot of lefty mashers. Jose Miranda is the closest they have right now with a .275 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. At $3,700 on DraftKings with eligibility at first base and third base, Miranda is a priority for me on this slate. Alexander has allowed a .175 ISO to right-handed batters this season so the right-handed hitters in the Twins lineup are in play for your stacks.
5. Thomas Henry had a 5.17 xFIP in Triple-A this season
Thomas Henry is making his big-league debut Wednesday against the Guardians in Cleveland. The Guardians have the highest implied team run total on the slate. Henry is left-handed, and José Ramírez is the only hitter in the Guardians projected lineup with an ISO above .200 against left-handed pitching this season. Franmil Reyes has a lot of power, but make sure he’s not in your lineups today as he’s been optioned to the minor leagues. Owen Miller has actually hit right-handed pitching better this season, but he’s in a nice spot if he’s batting fourth at $2,800 on DraftKings. Cleveland stacks could come in lower rostered than Minnesota stacks here, so keep that in mind when building tournament lineups.
