Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than any other sport. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Wednesday’s DFS slate.
1. JP Sears’ season-high of pitches in a start is 65 in Triple-A
JP Sears will get the start Tuesday, though it’s still anyone’s guess how deep he’ll work into the game. He’s been outstanding at Triple-A this season, with a 0.83 ERA in 21.2 innings and 30 strikeouts compared to just two walks. Yankees minor league beat writer Connor Foley mentioned he’s seen only two other pitchers dominate at Triple-A like Sears did recently: Michael King and Nestor Cortes. Both pitchers have excelled at the big-league level, and Sears might have a slight leg up on most pitchers making their starting debut as he’s already appeared twice out of the bullpen for the Yankees at the major league level this season. Pitching at home against the Orioles is also a good spot to break into starting in the majors and he’s cheap on DraftKings at $5,500.
2. Lucas Giolito has a 3.41 xFIP this season
Lucas Giolito’s been great this year. His ERA is 2.84 on the season and hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any start this year. Giolito has also struck out at least seven batters in four of his last five starts. He has a 34% K% this season and the Red Sox projected lineup has five hitters with at least a 20% K% against right-handed pitching this season. The Red Sox also project to have four left-handed hitters in the lineup tonight and Giolito has a 40% K% against left-handed batters this season. The Red Sox offense has woken up of late, especially last night when they scored 16 runs. Still, momentum is the next day’s starting pitcher and Giolito is my top spend up option on this slate.
3. Cristian Javier has a 2.87 ERA this season
Cristian Javier is 2-2 in his four starts for the Astros this season. He’s been pretty good in three of those starts as he’s allowed fewer than three earned runs, completed five innings and struck out at least four batters. His other start — against the Nationals in Washington — didn’t go so well, as he allowed seven earned runs before being removed in the fourth inning. He’s pitching at home against Cleveland here and he’s priced up at $9,300, but there’s upside here. Javier has a 31% K% this year and that goes up to 40% against right-handed batters. The Guardians projected lineup only has three left-handed hitters in it which gives Javier a mostly right-handed lineup to realize his strikeout upside against. He’s my second-favorite spend-up pitcher option on the slate.
4. Charlie Morton has allowed four earned runs in his last 16.1 innings
Charlie Morton has a 4.95 ERA on the season, but he’s getting back on track — he’s had a nice run of pitching over his last three starts. He’s also struck out 19 batters and walked five in those 16.1 innings. The Phillies have a potent offense and one we prefer not to have to attack, but they also strike out quite a bit. The Phillies’ projected lineup has seven hitters with a K% above 20% against right-handed pitching this season. With Morton rounding into form, an advantageous matchup for strikeouts against the Phillies and the Braves favored to win this game, I think this is a good spot for Uncle Charlie.
5. Reid Detmers has a 5.07 xFIP
Reid Detmers threw a no-hitter two starts ago, but in his last start he failed to make it through the fourth inning against the Rangers. He’ll have the same opponent Wednesday. It doesn’t look like the Rangers will be a popular stack, and I’m not sure why. In addition to his poor xFIP on the season, Detmers also has just a 17% K%. The Rangers have a couple hitters that have pounded left-handed pitching this season in Corey Seager and Mitch Garver, who each have ISOs above .260 against left-handed pitching this year. Since the beginning of last year, Marcus Semien and Adolis García each have ISOs above .177 against left-handed pitching. Detmers’ primary out-pitch is his curveball, which he throws 26% of the time. Over the last three years, Semien, Seager and García each have ISOs above .222 against curveballs from left-handed pitchers. The Rangers are my favorite sneaky stack on the main slate.
