Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than any other sport. These are the five stats I find most relevant to Thursday’s MLB DFS slate.
1. Lance McCullers Jr. has a 4.72 xFIP
Lance McCullers Jr. has been out most of the season, but he’s now made five starts and has a 2.20 ERA. His xERA is 4.02 and his xFIP is 4.72. McCullers is the most expensive pitcher and will likely carry the highest rostership on this slate. He’s facing Oakland, which is a good matchup, but the game is in Houston, so he won’t get the ballpark upgrade. The Athletics had eight runs Wednesdya against Texas. I think we can gain leverage on the field by fading McCullers and using someone like Seth Brown at $2,900 against him. Brown has a .223 ISO against right-handed pitching this year. Dermis Garcia is also in play for the minimum price at first base as he has a .324 ISO against right-handed pitching in a small sample at the big-league level.
2. Carlos Carrasco has a 4.08 xFIP
Carlos Carrasco looked like his normal self again in his last start as he had six innings and six strikeouts while allowing four hits and only one earned run. Two starts ago was his first start off the injured list and he only lasted two innings. I like this matchup for Carrasco at home, where he has a 3.35 ERA this season, against the Pirates. Pittsburgh is 28th in all of baseball averaging 3.46 runs per game on the road entering play Thursday. Carrasco is my preferred spend-up pitcher option.
3. Miles Mikolas has a 4.30 xFIP
Miles Mikolas has a 3.42 ERA. The Cardinals are a machine at home with a 48-25 (.658 WP) record and they’re facing the lowly Reds. Mikolas’ xFIP may be pedestrian, but there’s no question that he has the upside to be the pitcher you need on this slate. In three of Mikolas’ last six starts he’s completed eight innings and in those starts he’s had at least 25.6 DraftKings points. Two of those starts were at home, where he has a 2.23 ERA. He’s my favorite pitcher for tournaments.
4. Drey Jameson had a 6.95 ERA at Triple-A
Arizona’s Drey Jameson was the 34th overall pick in the 2019 MLB Draft and will make his big-league debut Thursday against the Padres. Somehow his 6.95 ERA at Triple-A isn’t in just a handful of innings, but in 114 innings. It’s the Pacific Coast League, where I’m sure the elevation is having an impact on ERAs and he’s young for the level, but that’s still a significant sample that he can’t really get the job done at the highest level of the minors. It’s unlikely to get better against big-league hitters. Stack the Padres. Trent Grisham’s price is especially cheap at $2,400 on DraftKings, but everyone is in play here. They should all be able to hit Jameson.
5. Dylan Bundy has a 4.60 xFIP
Dylan Bundy allowed seven earned runs in his last start without completing the fifth inning against the Guardians. I could see Bundy having a similar start here. Bobby Witt Jr. is a must in Royals stacks at $5,600 with eligibility at third base and shortstop. Salvador Perez, MJ Melendez and Vinnie Pasquantino are the next best hitters for Kansas City. Then you can add in one last value play for the full stack with Michael Massey, who has a .876 OPS this month, for $2,400 or Drew Waters at minimum price on DraftKings.
