NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than in any other sport. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Thursday’s DFS slate.
1. 34.3% strikeout rate for Dylan Cease
Dylan Cease has continued to live up to his name as a high-end strikeout pitcher, and he should be able to continue down that path as he faces the Detroit Tigers, who have six hitters in their lineup who strike out more than 24% of the time against RHPs this year.
2. Jeff Hoffman has a 5.71 SIERA and a 5.61 xFIP in limited time as a starter since the start of last year
That is an extremely small sample we are working with, but this Pirates team is turning things around, as Bryan Reynolds, Jack Suwinski, Daniel Vogelbach and Oneil Cruz all have .231 ISOs or higher against RHPs so far this season.
3. Gerrit Cole has struck out 7 or more hitters in 8 of his last 11 starts
Gerrit Cole is appearing to be in peak form, as he is turning in high strikeout performances routinely. This Boston team has also been trending down as of late, with just two hitters in the lineup with an ISO above .150 against RHPs over the last 30 days.
4. Matthew Liberatore has allowed a .285 xISO and .576 xSLG
Another pitcher with some fairly limited samples, but the expected numbers tell a story here, and that is that power prevention is an issue for Matthew Liberatore, and a matchup against the powerful Braves team is not a spot to get right.
5. The Blue Jays have five hitters with an ISO of .196 or higher against LHPs
Those hitters are Teoscar Hernández, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Santiago Espinal, Matt Chapman and Bo Bichette, in order of highest ISO to lowest. This is a very alarming lineup for Gonzales who has really struggled with power over the last two years.
