Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than any other sport. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Thursday’s slate.
1. Max Fried has a 2.74 ERA this year
Max Fried is my top overall pitcher on this slate at $9,500 on DraftKings going up against the Pittsburgh Pirates at home. Fried has been outstanding this year with his ERA under 3.00, a 3.41 xFIP, 23% K%, 5% BB% and 52% ground-ball percentage. He’s so good at inducing weak contact that he was able to throw eight scoreless innings against the Rockies at Coors Field in his last start while only striking out four batters. The Pirates can be sneaky against left-handed pitchers like Fried, with guys like Michael Chavis and Diego Castillo, who each have over .200 ISOs against left-handed hitters this season. Still, there’s also a good amount of strikeout upside for Fried in this matchup, as seven hitters in the projected Pirates lineup have a K rate above 20% against left-handed pitching.
2. Shohei Ohtani has a 2.45 ERA at home in his career
Shohei Ohtani typically pitches better at home over the course of his career, but he actually allowed five earned runs in six innings against the Toronto Blue Jays in his last home start. He also recorded 10 strikeouts in that game, but he allowed two home runs. He’s allowed at least one home run in each of his last three home starts. The Angels have lost 14 games in a row and desperately need a good start from Ohtani here to help get them back on track. Mike Trout left Tuesday’s game with groin tightness, and after missing the game Wednesday night, his availability for Thursday is up in the air. Ohtani is priced down at $8,100 on DraftKings tonight in a spot where the Angels will lean on their superstar to try to get them back in the win column. He’s my second-favorite overall pitcher on this slate.
3. Konnor Pilkington has a 29% K% this season
Konnor Pilkington is no longer very cheap on DraftKings, as he’s priced at $7,100 on this slate. Still, he carries some upside given his strikeouts and the matchup at home against the Oakland Athletics. The Athletics have a few right-handed hitters with ISOs above .200 on the season in Sean Murphy and Kevin Smith, but Pilkington has allowed just a .038 ISO to right-handed batters this season. Oakland’s lineup is one we want to attack, but it is worth noting that this game is in Cleveland, not Oakland, so no ballpark upgrade for Pilkington. He walks too many batters and his BB% is 10% this year, but he’s coming off his first major league victory where he completed five scoreless innings while allowing just five hits, two walks and eight K’s. Pilkington also hasn’t allowed a home run in 17 innings this season. He’s one of the most intriguing value pitchers on the slate, though not at the same bargain-bin price that we’re used to seeing.
4. Dylan Bundy has allowed a .225 ISO to right-handed hitters this season
The Yankees are my top stack on this slate. Dylan Bundy has a 5.57 ERA on the season and has allowed at least four earned runs in each of his last two starts. His last start, which was at Toronto, saw him allow five earned runs (six total) in less than three innings pitched. In fact, he’s completed at least four innings only twice in his last five starts. That kind of performance here will turn the Yankees into the top stacking option. Not only do the Yankees have the right-handed power bats to take advantage of Bundy in Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Gleyber Torres, but an early exit for Bundy would mean more opportunities against a weak Minnesota bullpen. While the focus should be on the right-handed hitters here, left-handed hitter Joey Gallo has been quietly heating up for the Yankees lately and is still just $3,600 on DraftKings.
5. JT Brubaker has a 5.02 xFIP this season
My other top stack of this slate is the Atlanta Braves going up against JT.Brubaker at home. Atlanta has the highest implied team run total on the slate at 5.41, and the Braves are the only team implied by Vegas to score over five runs. Brubaker has a significant split against left-handed batters this season, as lefties have a .234 ISO against him this year. That bodes well for the lefites in the Braves lineup like Matt Olson ($5,300), who has a .236 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Atlanta also has Ozzie Albies ($4,700) and rookie Michael Harris ($2,600) as options from the left side tonight. Despite scoring 13 runs last night, and this being just a five-game slate, Atlanta doesn’t seem like they’ll be too chalky. They might just be my favorite stack on this slate.
