Crossed Up: Surging New Yorkers (9/4)

It’s hard to believe it’s already September and the 2024 regular season is winding down. But as I’ve mentioned before in various places, September is a crucial month for fantasy baseball. With some managers now focusing on fantasy football as well to varying levels, certain performances can be missed. Unless you’ve 100% fallen out of the championship/money/playoff hunt in redraft, there’s always work that can be done to improve your finish or get your dynasty team in a better spot for 2025.

In this week’s Crossed Up, I’ll be focusing on four New York players who have either been performing better of late or are having sneaky-good seasons that aren’t being talked about enough. Are their performances legit?

Mark Vientos, 1B/3B, New York Mets

It’s been a major breakout season for Mark Vientos. In 359 plate appearances, Vientos has cranked 22 home runs with a .281/.337/.544 slash line. While he ranks 17^th overall on the Razzball player rater due to having fewer plate appearances than the names ahead of him, Vientos ranks fourth in per-game value, trailing only José Ramírez, Gunnar Henderson and Elly De La Cruz, the latter two of whom will lose 3B eligibility after this season. That means Vientos is ahead of Rafael Devers, Austin Riley, Manny Machado, Jazz Chisholm Jr., etc. on a per-game value basis this season.

As with any breakout performer, our minds immediately ask, “Is it legit?” With Vientos, I’m a believer.

The area that Vientos has always stood out in is his power. That has been the case this season as well with a 15.2% barrel rate, 91 mph AVG EV and 46.1% hard-hit rate. All three of those metrics along with his .487 xSLG rank among the top 24% of hitters this season. Vientos could easily be an annual 30-homer bat moving forward.

Outside of the power, I’m expecting Vientos’ AVG to regress some, but not to detrimental levels. Vientos is currently running a 74.7% zone contact rate, 66.2% overall contact rate, and has an xBA of .254. That .250-.260 range feels more realistic for Vientos’ profile. With that said, Vientos has improved his walk rate by 3.2% and his strikeout rate by 2.6% this season, which is encouraging.

All in all, if Vientos is a .250-plus/30-plus bat, that would make him a top-10 option at the third base position moving forward. I’m confident that he can be that type of player.

Sean Manaea, SP/RP, New York Mets

While Vientos has been a bright spot in the Mets’ lineup, Sean Manaea has been a bright spot in the rotation. Through his first 27 starts of the season, Manaea has recorded a 3.35 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 8.8% walk rate and a 25% strikeout rate. This comes after four straight seasons with an ERA between 3.91 and 4.96. In fact, you could make a strong argument that this is Manaea’s best full season of his career.

Whenever I see a situation such as this where a veteran has a much better season than in prior years, I try to see if anything changed. With Manaea, his pitch usages have altered this season:

Manaea is throwing more sinkers, cutters and sweepers with fewer four-seamers, changeups and sliders. That has worked incredibly well for him as all three of those pitches have a BAA under .220 and a SLG allowed under .340. But given that Manaea likes to throw the sinker in the upper part of the zone, we haven’t seen an uptick in his groundball rate which has actually decreased by 5.6%.

Is Manaea an ace? No. But can he be counted on as a top-50 SP moving forward? Absolutely.

David Peterson, SP/RP, New York Mets

David Peterson is another Mets arm having a sneaky good season. After posting a 5.03 ERA in 2023, Peterson has nearly cut that in half this season with a 2.75 ERA across 17 starts and 98.1 innings. However, despite being a Peterson guy in the past (which usually never worked out), I’m not buying this performance here in 2024.

For starters, despite his ERA being over two runs lower, Peterson’s xERA is still 4.85, which is only a hair under his 4.96 xERA in 2023. Outside of a 52.8% groundball rate and elite extension, Peterson’s profile is pretty mediocre.

After being at 27.8% and 26% in the strikeout rate department for the last two seasons, Peterson has dropped down to a 19.5% strikeout rate this season while also seeing his whiff rate drop from 29.2% to 24.7%. On top of that, Peterson is allowing more contact than he ever has before, both in zone and overall, and his whiff rates on his slider, changeup, and curveball have all decreased between 3.5 and 11.5% this season.

I’m not sure if the regression will happen this season as Peterson only has a handful of starts remaining, but this is not a pitcher I’d look to invest in this offseason in dynasty leagues or draft next spring at what will probably be a higher ADP than I’m willing to draft him at.

Austin Wells, C, New York Yankees

All right, let’s shift from Queens to the Bronx and discuss the emergence of Austin Wells. While Wells has a fairly highly ranked prospect coming up through the Yankees’ farm system, his value was trending down earlier this season when he was slashing .190/.281/.286 after an 0/3 game June 5. However, since then, Wells has slashed .285/.374/.516 with 11 home runs in 220 plate appearances .308/.378/.530 with six home runs in 135 plate appearances since July 22.

I’ve always been a Wells guy, and that isn’t changing now. His profile won’t knock your socks off, but it’s a solid profile overall with no glaring red flags. Wells is running slightly below league average zone and overall contact rates while having a better than league average chase rate. As for his quality of contact, Wells is a tick below his 2023 marks, but still above-average overall with a 8.8% barrel rate, 88.8 mph AVG EV and 39% hard-hit rate.

On top of all that, Wells has shown a sound approach at the plate with an 11.4% walk rate, 20.5% strikeout rate and 26.9% chase rate, all of which are better than league average. The walk rate is especially encouraging as Wells only walked 4% of the time in the bigs last season, albeit in only 75 plate appearances.

All in all, Wells’ solid all-around profile along with his team and lineup context makes him a top-10 catcher moving forward for fantasy with the skills to go .260/20 (or better) annually. I’ll be looking to invest this offseason in dynasty leagues, and Wells will be a popular target for me in 2025 drafts.