Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Wednesday 9/7)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets today. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros

Cristian Javier Over 6.5 K’s -139 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Rangers +235 @ Astros -292 – Total 8 (Caesars Sportsbook)

The Rangers and Astros finish off a three-game set Wednesday at Minute Maid Park, with the clubs splitting the first two games of the series. The Astros have a big advantage on the bump tonight and are certainly a parlay piece to consider with their moneyline juiced close to -300. Cristian Javier makes his fifth start against the Rangers this season, and I’ve identified an edge on his strikeout prop. We’re betting Cristian Javier over 5.5 strikeouts against the Rangers. 

The righty has posted a number of career bests this season, including the highest strikeout percentage of his career at 32.4%, which ranks third in all of baseball (minimum 120 innings). Only Shohei Ohtani and Shane McClanahan have struck out batters at a higher percentage than Javier this season. His 13.7% swinging strike percentage is the best of his young career, and it ranks tenth best in the majors. Javier is primarily a two-pitch pitcher, featuring a 4-seam fastball and a slider nearly 88% of the time. The 25-year-old righty has a 43% K% with his slider and Texas has posted the seventh most strikeouts in baseball versus that pitch. Javier throws his fastball over 60% of the time and Texas has the fifth-most punchouts against four-seamers this year. 

The Rangers are a fairly aggressive team at the dish; they’ve had trouble making contact on pitches both in and outside of the strike zone this season. The Rangers have the worst contact rate in the majors on pitches outside the zone, while having the third lowest contact rate on pitches inside the zone. Overall, the Rangers have the second highest swinging strike percentage in the bigs. For the season, Texas has the seventh highest strikeout percentage versus right-handed pitchers at 23.8%. That number has actually increased to 24.7% since August 1st.

I’m projecting Javier for about seven strikeouts against this Rangers lineup, as he should pitch at least six innings. As always, be sure to check out FTN’s Prop Shop to ensure you’re betting the best available number. 

Bet: Cristian Javier Over 6.5 K’s -139