Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
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Today, Eric Pauly provides his picks.
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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today
Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers
Houston Astros RL -1.5 +106 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Houston Astros are the strongest team in the American League, and Tuesday they have a favorable matchup on the road against the Texas Rangers. Houston is coming off a 2-1 series loss against the Orioles, but this is a bounceback spot. Houston leads the season series 10-4 against the Rangers and have covered in six of those wins.
The Rangers are 6-4 in their last 10 games, but they just lost a series at home against the Tigers. They have no shot of making the playoffs this season. The Rangers are 28-36 at home straight up, but they are 54-24 covering as an underdog this season.
Despite the Rangers’ ability to cover run lines this season, the Astros have the much better pitcher in this matchup. Framber Valdez will make the start for Houston. In 24 starts this season, Valdez is 13-4 with a 2.65 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP and a 3.18 FIP.
This will be the fourth time Valdez faces the Rangers this season, the second time on the road. His first start against the Rangers on the road was back in April, and Valdez allowed just one run on four hits in six innings of work. In his last start against the Rangers at home, Valdez allowed no runs on four hits.
In 63.1 innings at home this season, Valdez has a 3.27 ERA, a 2.76 FIP and a 1.23 WHIP. Valdez allows more base runners at home, and his splits like slugging percentage and batting average against are slightly higher than on the road, but his FIP improves, which is a more important metric.
Offensively, the Astros have a .735 team OPS in August, they have a .721 OPS on the road, and they have a .734 OPS against right-handed pitchers. All of these metrics put the Astros offense in the top 10 in the MLB.
Dane Dunning will make the start for the Rangers, and it will be his third time pitching against the Astros this season. Both of his other starts against the Astros were at home, one game was in April and the other in June. In those starts, Dunning allowed two runs on five hits in the first game and no runs on just two hits in the second game. The Rangers went 1-1 in those two games.
While Dunning seems to have the Astros’ number, he has been much worse on the road this season. In his road starts, Dunning has posted a 5.25 ERA, a .453 slugging percentage against, a .304 batting average against, a 1.64 WHIP, and a 4.57 FIP. These numbers are way too high, so I expect the Astros offense to get payback on Dunning here.
The Rangers are bad, but they have not rolled over. They are 15-15 in their last 30 games, and they are seventh in the MLB in OPS in August. However, Valdez has been electric this year, and the Rangers have not been able to touch him so far this season.
While both pitchers seem to have the other team’s number, something has to give. I have this game priced at HOU -1.5 -120, so at HOU -1.5 +106, there is value. Go with the Astros to not just win, but to win by two.
Bet: Houston Astros RL -1.5 +106 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
