Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Tuesday 7/18)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves

Dbacks +160 @ Braves -190 – Total 10.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Braves have the best record in baseball as they enter play Tuesday. They’ll be hosting Arizona for a three-game set at Truist Park. The Dbacks are skidding, as they’ve lost four straight and eight of their last 10. No action on a side in this one, but I’ve found an edge in the team total market. 

Zach Davies toes the rubber for Arizona Tuesday evening. He enters with the seventh-worst ERA in the National League at 6.37. Davies’ xERA/xwOBA ranks in the 29th percentile, which is somehow one of his better-ranking metrics in 2023. The righty does show some positive regression but we’re still talking about a SIERA around five. Over his last six starts, Davies has posted a 7.85 ERA and a 46.2% hard-hit percentage. The only thing the 30-year-old has done well this year is limit barrels, but he’s had issues with his control. He’s also having a tough time getting batters to swing, as his whiff rate ranks in the 23rd percentile and his chase rate is in the 14th percentile. His 7.9% swinging-strike percentage is the second worst of his career, and his in-zone contact percentage is also one of the worst marks he’s posted at 89.3%. The righty has an expected batting average of .272, which ranks in the 15th percentile. As a team, the Dbacks have allowed the ninth-most runs per game on the road at 4.82, as they face one of, if not the best, offenses in baseball. 

The Braves’ offense has been an absolute wagon as they make it incredibly difficult for opposing pitchers with such a deep lineup. Atlanta ranks second in baseball in runs per game at 5.59 and that number is a smidge higher at home (5.67). The Braves’ 116 wRC+ against right-handed pitching ranks third-best in the show. Over the last 30 days, nobody has been better at the dish, as their wRC+ sits at 138 over that stretch. Their hard-hit rate and barrel percentage also rank at the top of MLB, at 45.7% and 12% respectively. 

I’m projecting Davies to struggle his way through four-plus innings Tuesday while allowing three or four runs. Atlanta shouldn’t have too much trouble getting the rest of their scoring done against the Dbacks’ relief arms. Frank Brank’s MLB Model agrees with this over; as Frank projects the Braves for six runs. As always, be sure to use the FTN Prop Shop to make sure you’re betting the best number available.

Bet

Braves TT Over 5.5 (-122, FanDuel Sportsbook)