MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!
Today, MLBdream provides his picks.
You can check out the full card at the Bet Tracker. If you’re not subscribed, join now and get 20% off using promo code DREAM.
Best MLB Bets and Picks Today
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Philadelphia Phillies
Dbacks +140 @ Phillies -165 – Total 7.5 (BetMGM)
Zack Wheeler shoved as Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos went yard, and the Phillies took Game 1 of the NLCS Monday. Merrill Kelly and Aaron Nola square off Tuesday night in Philly before an off-day Wednesday.
Pitching props in the postseason pretty much come down to one thing: usage. If you’re projecting an early hook, you’re betting unders. If you’re expecting some length out of the starter, you’re betting overs. The lines on Merrill Kelly’s props tell you that Torey Lovullo will likely have a quick hook Tuesday. His bullpen is well rested, and they have a day off Wednesday before traveling to Arizona for Game 3. However, I think we’ve seen an overadjustment from bookmakers so far in both Championships Series. Kelly is having a career year at the age of 35, and I’m expecting him to go a little deeper than the market thinks in Game 2. Four hits aren’t a ton, so either he gets rocked in the first few innings and the hits cash (as long as he doesn’t give up a ton of walks), or he pitches deeper than most expect and scatters four hits across 5-plus innings.
In the batters box, nobody in the postseason has posted a better OPS than the Phillies’ .905. The Phils’ are slashing .275/.355/.550, and their 63 hits are the second-most behind only the Rangers this October. You know your lineup is deep when your No. 7 hitter is hitting .370, with an OBP over .400, and slugging 1.000. I know it’s still early, but I’m thinking Nick Castellanos has a pretty good shot at the World Series MVP, as long as Bryce Harper doesn’t go nuclear, and of course the Phillies make it past the Dbacks.
It’s another chilly night in Philly, so we won’t get much assistance from the weather, but we should get some help from behind the dish. It’s always a plus when Frank Brank’s MLB Model agrees with our bet, as Frank projects Kelly to surrender 5.74 hits. Be sure to check the FTN Prop Shop to ensure you’re betting the best number available.
Bet
Merrill Kelly Over 3.5 Hits (-160, BetMGM)
