Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
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Tampa Bay Rays @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Rays +100 @ Dbacks -120 — Total 10 (Caesars)
The Rays and Diamondbacks have split the first two games of a three-game set in Arizona as they face off in the rubber match Thursday afternoon at Chase Field. The roof is closed, but it’s safe to expect a bunch of runs in this one with a total of 10 and a couple of gas cans on the bump.
Rookie Brandon Pfaadt makes his sixth MLB start, his first since rejoining the team after being sent back down to AAA. The righty has gotten shelled in his first 23.2 big-league innings, posting an 8.37 ERA with an expected ERA of 7.17. His advanced numbers aren’t any better with a 7.16 FIP and a 5.22 SIERA. The rookie has had a real tough time missing bats and avoiding hard contact. His swinging-strike percentage sits a 9.7%, with a 14.8% barrel % and a hard hit rate barely below 50% – at 49.4%. While you may think he’s been solid since getting sent back down the minors, posting a 3.16 ERA – he had a 5.23 FIP in those six starts. The 24-year-old throws his fastball about 56% of the time, but he isn’t having much success with it. Posting a .339 batting average against a .644 slugging percentage on his four-seamer. Instead of listing all of Pfaadt’s horrible stats, I’ve posted his percentile rankings via BaseballSavant below.
At the dish, only the Rangers average more runs than the Rays’ 5.52. However, Tampa leads the majors in wRC+ against right-handed pitching at 125 (25% better than the league average). The Rays offense ranks in the top 10 of a myriad of categories, including hard-hit percentage, barrel percentage and wOBA. Tampa also ranks fifth or better in home runs, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. I mentioned Pfaadt’s fastball struggles above, Tampa has the best wOBA against fastballs this season and the second-best slugging percentage (behind only Atlanta).
I’m projecting Pfaadt to struggle his way through about five innings Thursday afternoon. Things won’t get that much better for the Dbacks once the rookie gets pulled. Arizona’s bullpen ranks right outside the bottom 10 in FIP and ERA, along with the eighth-worse SIERA in the majors. I’m expecting the Rays to barrel the rookie enough for us to cash our over 5 runs. As always, be sure to use the FTN Prop Shop to make sure you’re betting the best number available.
Bets
Rays TT Over 5 (-102, Caesars)
