Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
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Today, MLBdream provides his picks.
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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today
Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins
Guardians +126 @ Twins -148 — Total 8 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
The AL Central-leading Twins host their divisional rival Thursday night in the first game of a four-game set at Target Field. Cleveland sits 3.5 games behind Minnesota despite being five games under .500. I don’t have an opinion on a side in this one, but I found an edge in the strikeout market over at FanDuel.
Rookie Tanner Bibee has made six career starts in the show and has posted a 2.88 ERA, which is backed by a 3.02 FIP and an expected ERA of 2.85. The righty’s K% sits at 25% with an 11% swinging strike percentage for the year but we’ve seen both numbers bumped up a bit over his last few starts thanks to a slight tweak in Bibee’s pitch arsenal. The 24-year-old has increased his changeup usage after not featuring it more than 9% in his first three starts.
We’ve also seen his slider usage tick back up following a dip after his first few starts of the season (both charts via Baseball Savant).
The slider and changeup have been the rookie’s two best strikeout pitches. Posting a 40.9% K% and 45% whiff% with his changeup and a 36.8% K% and 36.9% whiff% on his slider.
At the dish, nobody strikes out more than the Twins versus right-handed pitching at 26.5% and that number increased to 28.3% in the month of May. Overall, their 12.7% swinging-strike percentage is the highest in baseball. They’re the only team in MLB to average double-digit strikeouts this season at 10.25. What makes this a great matchup for Bibee is that the Twinkies lead the league in strikeout percentage against sliders at 33.9% and changeups at 31.7%.
I’m projecting Tanner Bibee to pitch five-plus innings and K the six Twins we need to cash. As always, check out FTN’s Prop Shop to grab the best number on the market.
Bet
Tanner Bibee Over 5.5 K’s (-124, FanDuel Sportsbook)
