Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Thursday 3/30)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals

Braves -255 @ Nationals +210; Total 7.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Happy Opening Day! We didn’t have to wait quite as long for baseball action this year thanks to the World Baseball Classic. But there’s still nothing like the excitement of Opening Day. With first pitch a few hours away, I’m going to keep this brief, so let’s get into it.

Everyone’s favorite 2022 fade toes the rubber for the Washington Nationals Thursday, as Patrick Corbin faces the Atlanta Braves. Atlanta has mashed lefties for the past couple of years, as they return most of their lineup from 2022 with a couple of upgrades. The Braves ranked fifth in baseball last year in wRC+ versus southpaws at 118 (18% above league average). Their .341 wOBA against left-handed pitchers was second-best in all of baseball, behind only the Cardinals. The Bravos are projected to feature seven right-handed hitters in the lineup in DC, and that should give Corbin plenty of trouble. 

Corbin’s 6.31 ERA ranked worst in baseball, while his 4.84 FIP ranked third-worst among pitchers with a minimum of 150 innings pitched last season. Batters hit better than .300 versus all four of Corbin’s pitches in 2022, with his slider being the only pitch with an expected batting average below .300. In four starts against the Braves, Corbin posted a 9.42 ERA, 5.07 FIP and an 11.8% K-BB%. Atlanta slashed an abusrd.391/.447/.565 off Corbin, with a wOBA of .439. Instead of writing another 200 words on how bad Corbin was, here’s a screenshot of his percentile rankings via baseball savant. 

I’m projecting Corbin to labor his way into the 5th inning Thursday afternoon. Things won’t get much better for the Nats after Corbin gets pulled. The Nats bullpen had the sixth-worst FIP and the eighth-worst SIERA last season while doing very little to upgrade the group for the 2023 season. I’m expecting the Nats to barrel up Corbin plenty and cash our over 4.5 runs. As always, be sure to use the FTN Prop Shop to make sure you’re betting the best number available.

Bets

Braves TT Over 4.5, -114 (FanDuel Sportsbook)