Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Saturday 9/10)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets today. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Atlanta Braves @ Seattle Mariners

George Kirby o4.5 K’s -149 (Caesars)
Braves -120 @ Mariners +110 – Total 7 (Caesars)

The Braves and Mariners continue their interleague series Saturday night in Seattle, as Max Fried and George Kirby face off in what should be a pitchers duel. The Mariners have won seven of their last 10 games, despite losing their last two contests. While the Braves are the hottest team in baseball, winners of eight straight games. We won’t be betting a side or total in this one, as I’ve identified an edge in the strikeout market.

Mariners rookie George Kirby makes his 21st career start, he enters this matchup with a 3.15 ERA, 3.06 FIP and 3.19 SIERA to match. Kirby has a 24.8% K% on the season but we’ve seen a bump in his punchouts in the second half, as he’s posted a 28.9% K% over his last seven starts. Kirby features his 4-seam fastball about 46% of the time and it’s his best strikeout pitch with a 31.8% K%. This bodes well for tonight’s game, as the Braves have the eighth most punchouts in baseball versus 4-seamers. Kirby has gone over this number in six of his last seven starts, his only loss coming after a lengthy rain delay in his most recent outing versus the Guardians. 

There’s no doubt that this potent Braves lineup has the ability to put up runs in bunches, but they’re definitely prone to striking out often. Atlanta has the fourth-highest strikeout percentage in baseball versus right-handed pitching since July 1 at 25.2%. The Braves have the second highest zone swinging percentage while somehow maintaining the second-lowest zone contact percentage. The Bravos also carry the highest whiff percentage in the majors at 28.5% and the fourth-highest chase percentage at 30.8%. The Braves average over nine strikeouts a game, which is the third most in baseball only behind the Pirates and Angels. 

George Kirby should be able to pitch into the sixth inning tonight against this tough Braves lineup, as I have him projected for close to six strikeouts. Alex Blickle’s Strikeout Model at FTN agrees with this over. Alex’s K Model projects the rookie for 5.3 K’s. As always, be sure to check out FTN’s Prop Shop to grab the best number on the board.

Bet: George Kirby o4.5 K’s -149