Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Monday 5/1)

Welcome to FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite MLB bets today.

Today, Chris Meaney provides his picks for Monday.

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Be sure to subscribe to the Hot Corner at FTN Network with MLB Dream and myself as we share a few of our favorite MLB picks. 

Best MLB Props Bets 

Luis García OVER 6.5 K

(-118, Caesars Sportsbook)

Luis García has an impressive 10.33 K/9 and 27.2 K% this season, which are career-high marks for the fourth-year pitcher. He has at least seven strikeouts in three straight outings (TB, TOR & TEX) despite only making it to the seventh in one of those starts (9K in 7 IP vs. TOR). The righty hasn’t allowed a run in his last two starts and has only given up five hits over that span (13 IP & 16 K). Keep in mind, TB and TEX are two of the top five offenses in baseball as we enter May. 

Garcia had a 13 SwStr% in each of his last two seasons but is sitting at 14.8% this year. I’m concerned about his high walk and fly-ball rates, but this is a good spot against SF. In my last article, we talked about Jordan Montgomery’s low K% but the matchup against the Giants made his K prop appealing. The same thing applies here, as the Giants have a league-high 27.5% strikeout rate and their SwStr% is the sixth-highest mark in the game (12.4%). 

Matt Chapman OVER 1.5 Total Bases

(-110, BetMGM)

What Matt Chapman is doing is unsustainable, but he’s too hot to ignore at the moment. The Blue Jays third baseman is slashing .324/.429/.606 with a .439 wOBA vs RHP. He has three home runs against righties and 11 of his 15 doubles have been against RHP. Chapman enters tonight on a seven-game hit streak and has six doubles over that span (four in his last three games). He also sports a league-high 31.5% barrel rate. Meanwhile, Corey Kluber has coughed up 24 hits, seven homers and 18 runs in 24 innings. He has a career-worst 10.5% barrel rate which has led to at least one home run allowed in each of his first five starts with Boston. Speaking of Boston, Kluber has surrendered five home runs, 13 runs, three doubles and 15 hits in 13.1 innings at Fenway Park (8.78 ERA). Opponents are slashing .273/.375/.600 with a .415 wOBA in his three starts in Boston.