Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite MLB bets for the MLB Postseason. Today, Chris Meaney provides his picks for Monday.
We have a two-game slate today with Game 6 of the NLCS between the Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks at 5:07 p.m. ET. The Phillies can punch their ticket to the World Series for the second straight season with a win at Citizen Bank Park.
There’s nothing better in sports than a Game 7, and that’s what we have in the ALCS between the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers. First pitch is set for 8:03 p.m. ET.
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The Best MLB Props
Philadelphia Phillies OVER 4.5 Runs
(+105, DraftKings)
The Phillies have done nothing but hit bombs throughout these playoffs. They’re back home where they’ve won all six of their games in the postseason. They’ve outscored their opponents 39-8 over this ridiculous run. They outscored Arizona 15-3 in the first two games of this series, including a 10-0 thumping in Game 2 against Merrill Kelly. The Diamondbacks’ pitcher coughed up four runs on three hits, three home runs and three walks over 5.2 innings. He was rocked earlier in the year against the Phillies as well (3 H, 3 ER, 4 BB in 6.0 IP). Philadelphia has a team OPS of .873, which is the fourth-best mark of a team with 200 playoff appearances (ESPN Stats & Info). If Kelly can’t find his command, the crooked numbers will come.
Bonus: Aaron Nola O 5.5 K (-134, FanDuel)
Aaron Nola has only allowed two earned runs over his 18.2 innings of work. He has a sparkling 19:2 K:BB ratio over that span and has only allowed 12 hits. He’s keeping the ball on the ground and has limited the walks, which has resulted in deep outings. The over on his 16.5 outs recorded prop is juiced at -155 on BetMGM, but I believe he’ll complete six innings.
Houston Astros OVER 4.5 Runs Scored
(+105, DraftKings)
I’m sure Max Scherzer will be better than his Game 3 start, but that’s not saying much. Houston scored five runs on five hits over four innings, and those hits were loud! Scherzer finished that outing with a 75% Hard Hit% with an Exit Velocity of 93.7 MPH. Great stuff from my guy MLB Dream here.
To be fair, it was Scherzer’s first start since September 12, and he has a history of showing up in big games. However, so do the Astros, and I’m willing to bet on their bats in a must-win situation. The leash will be short for Scherzer, and if he gets yanked early, it means Houston took it to him. I’m not sure his velocity will be where it needs to be.
Bonus: Astros ML (-129, Unibet)
