Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Friday 9/2)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets today. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, Eric Pauly provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox

Texas Rangers RL +1.5 -118 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Friday night, the Rangers and the Red Sox face off for the second of a four-game series. The Red Sox won Thursday’s matchup in walkoff fashion in a thrilling game. The Rangers were up 8-3 heading into the bottom of the eighth inning, but the Sox scored two in the eighth and four in the ninth to take home a 9-8 win. 

The Red Sox are currently 7.5 games back in the NL Wild Card, and the Rangers are just behind at 12.5 games back. These teams have not been eliminated from postseason contention just yet, but it would take a miracle run for either of these teams to make the playoffs. Neither of these teams are rollover teams, and they can pose problems for other fringe playoff teams in the last month of baseball. 

Boston has a better shot of making the playoffs, and in order to do just that, they need to win this series against the Rangers. Boston is 14-16 in their last 30, so they will need to have a much better September to have a shot. Boston is the better team, and I can see them winning, but I do not think they can do it by more than two runs. 

Nick Pivetta will make the start for the Red Sox. In 26 starts this season, Pivetta is 9-10 with a 4.40 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP and a 4.15 FIP. His last start was rough. Pivetta allowed five runs on eight hits, and he was bounced after the fifth inning in a Red Sox loss. Boston is 1-4 straight up and 1-4 covering the run line in Pivetta’s last five home starts.

When diving into his splits, it makes sense that the Red Sox struggle in Pivetta’s home starts. In 72.2 inning of work at home this year, Pivetta has a 4.83 ERA, a .452 slugging percentage against, a .270 batting average against, a 1.44 WHIP, and a 4.50 FIP. He also leaves fewer men on base at home, his strikeout percentage dips, and his walk percentage rises. 

The Rangers’ offense has been decent this year despite their lack of wins. The Rangers are 12th in the MLB in OPS on the road, 22nd against right-handed pitching, and they finished August with the eighth-best OPS. 

Dallas Keuchel will make the start for the Rangers at Fenway. The Rangers are the third team Keuchel has made a start for this season, and this is his second start with Texas. His first start with them was last week, and he allowed seven runs on 11 hits in 5.1 innings of work. Keuchel faced the Red Sox earlier this season when he was with the White Sox, and he allowed just two runs on eight hits in a win. 

Home/road splits are less meaningful for a guy like Keuchel since he has not had a consistent home stadium all season long. What intrigues me about the Rangers on the run line tonight is their offensive prowess and their knack for covering all season long. Texas is 55-26 covering the run line as an underdog this year. 

I expect the Rangers to give Pivetta trouble, and even if the Red Sox return the favor, I anticipate the game play out similarly to last night’s slugfest. The Sox won the game, but by just one run, so run line bettors could rejoice. I have this priced at TEX +1.5 -140, so at -118 there is certainly value. 

Bet: Rangers RL +1.5 -118 (FanDuel Sportsbook)