Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Friday 3/31)

Welcome to this Friday edition of MLB best bets at FTN! My betting strategy is different from what you may be accustomed to, especially if you’re a consistent follower of the superstar that is MLBDream. I’m not on the hunt for wins, I’m on the hunt for the largest edges possible. Typically, I find these in longshot bets. Hopefully some of you have been tailing along this PGA season, for example:

In baseball, the most common longshot bets you’ll see me make are K ladders and stolen base SGPs. Stolen base SGPs are particularly interesting to me after the stolen base explosion we saw on Day 1:

As the season progresses, I expect the success rate to come down as players get more and more aggressive in attempting to steal. Double steals will be more common than ever before, which is just one of many reasons why I believe stolen base correlation is dramatically underestimated by the books.

Best MLB Bets for Friday

Jeremy Peña to steal a base (+270, BetMGM)
Kyle Tucker to steal a base (+240, BetMGM)

Thursday in chat, I suggested that I wouldn’t be making many individual stolen base bets, but that has since changed. I think these should be priced closer to +150. Let’s examine the key components of a stolen base matchup:

1. How likely is the player to reach base with an opportunity to steal?

This begins with Lance Lynn. He has done a great job in the past few years of bringing down his walk rate, and thus sports an impressive WHIP that’s hovered around 1.1 over the last few years. The bright side is that he suppresses power well, having never allowed a barrel rate over 7% in his career. Thus, most of the guys who do reach base, do so with a chance to steal. This is especially true for Peña who should once again leadoff for Houston. 

You can make an argument that Houston makes Lynn worse because they are so tough to strikeout, but this aspect of the matchup isn’t anything special, regardless.

2. How likely is the player to attempt a steal if he has the opportunity?

Here’s where it starts to get good. Teams love to attack certain pitchers and/or catchers if they feel they have an advantage on the basepaths. Houston has the best matchup of the day:

rSB is the number of runs saved by the pitcher and catcher based on their ability to prevent stolen bases. A negative number means they are below average at doing so. 

3. How likely is the player to successfully steal the base when he attempts to?

Obviously the matchup with the pitcher and catcher matter again here, but it’s also about the player’s speed and ability to steal bases.

• Jeremy Peña — 5.3 speed score, 0.9 wSB (runs gained on stolen base attempts)
• Kyle Tucker — 4.8 speed score, 2.5 wSB

For those unfamiliar with these metrics, both are great in each way. This an excellent matchup for two of the premiere base stealers in the league. Parlaying them together is only good for +400, so I’ll instead bet them individually and hope BetMGM adds some other players that I can bet alongside them for longer odds.

At the moment, this is all I have for today, but keep an eye on the tracker for more throughout the day. I’m also going to hammer PrizePicks (use promo code FTN when depositing) this season for as long as they allow us to dramatically correlate picks without reducing the payout odds.