Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Friday 10/21)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets today. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, Eric Pauly provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies ML -102 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

After taking Game 1 of the NLCS, the Phillies dropped Game 2, and now the series shifts to Philadelphia. Lefty Ranger Suárez will take the mound for the Phillies, while righty Joe Musgrove will be on the bump for the Padres. 

The Phillies had a 4-2 lead heading into the fifth inning of Game 2, but they let up five runs in the bottom of the fifth and were unable to recover. Both teams used a decent number of relievers in Game 2, but since they had the day off Thursday, both teams should have their full bullpen ready to go. 

Suárez made a start against the Braves on the road and allowed just one run and three hits in five innings. However, Suárez had no command, and though he had five strikeouts in 3.1 innings, he also allowed a home run and five walks. 

Suárez was also worse at home during the regular season. His ERA was 4.27, he had a .272 batting average against, a .410 slugging percentage against, a 4.00 FIP, and a 1.52 WHIP. Despite his worse splits on the road, the Phillies won his last five home starts of the regular season. 

Musgrove takes the mound for the Padres on the road. In his two playoff appearances this season, the Padres are 2-0 and he allowed just two runs on seven hits in 13 innings with 13 strikeouts. 

Musgrove has been at his best at home this season, but his road splits are still solid. He has a 3.01 ERA, a .229 batting average against, a .376 slugging percentage against, a 3.09 FIP and a 1.06 WHIP. In his sole road start this postseason, Musgrove allowed just one hit to the Mets in 7 innings in the Wild Card round. 

Despite Musgrove’s ability to pitch well, and the momentum this Padres team has built, they still need to beat a Phillies team in their home park which will be rocking. The Phillies have this underdog mentality, and they will benefit from playing at home. The Phillies went 47-34 at home in the regular season. This game will be a close one, and I like the Phillies to pull off an upset and take Game 3. 

Bet: Phillies ML -102 (FanDuel Sportsbook)