Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The 155th running of the Belmont States takes place Saturday. There will be no Triple Crown winner this year, as Kentucky Derby winner Mage failed to win the Preakness Stakes three weeks ago. However, we do have five horses who ran in either the Derby or Preakness along with Forte, who was scratched from the Derby but was considered one of the favorites.
This field isn’t the most impressive we’ve seen, but with just eight horses in the race, there’s lots of opportunity for betting purposes. This is a race to go after exotics with exactas, trifectas and even superfectas in play. Before we get to the betting picks, let’s break down the field.
Unlike my Derby article, which uses a process of elimination to narrow down the massive field, Belmont handicapping doesn’t take the same approach. However, there are some things to consider. In terms of running style, we could see any style win this race. Frontrunners have wired the field, some have stalked their way to victory, and closers have had big runs down the stretch to win the race.
One thing we have noticed is that horses that have run in the Preakness have not had success in the Belmont. We’ve seen only three Belmont winners from horses who ran in the Preakness over the last 20 years, and two of them were triple crown winners American Pharoah and Justify. That doesn’t bode well for Red Route One or National Treasure, who were in this year’s edition of the Preakness three weeks ago.
However, we have seen success from Todd Pletcher horses. The Hall of Fame trainer has produced four Belmont winners, including last year’s winner Mo Donegal. Pletcher has two horses in the field: Tapit Trice and Forte. And speaking of Tapit Trice, we have two horses in the field sired by Tapit. Along with Tapit Trice, we also have Tapit Shoes. Horses sired by Tapit have won the Belmont four times: Tonalist (2014), Creator (2016), Tapwrit (2017) and Essential Quality (2021).
With these trends in mind, let’s take a look at this year’s field.
2023 Belmont: The Field
1. Tapit Shoes (20-1) – Sired by Tapit, this horse has the pedigree to compete, but lacks experience in graded stakes. Still, it should be considered the top long shot in the field.
2. Tapit Trice (3-1) – Ran a disappointing seventh in the Kentucky Derby, which broke its string of four straight wins including the Blue Grass and Tampa Derby. Has the pedigree to win.
3. Arcangelo (8-1) – Didn’t run in either of the first two triple crown races but did win the Peter Pan on this same track. Peter Pan runners have had a lot of success in this race, with 13 of the last 20 winners having also run in the Peter Pan. Arcangelo is the lone horse in the field to have run in the Peter Pan and should be taken seriously.
4. National Treasure (5-1) – The Preakness winner wired the field three weeks ago and has posted 90-plus Beyer speed figures in each of its last five races. However, history isn’t favorable to horses who ran in the Preakness.
5. Il Miracolo (30-1) – This horse has no chance. We’re using it in exotics only.
6. Forte (5-2) – Pletcher’s top horse in this race, Forte is one of just two horses in the field to have posted a triple-digit Beyer speed figure. The race sets up well for Forte, but there likely won’t be any value in betting it.
7. Hit Show (10-1) – The fifth-place finisher from the Derby faded a touch down the stretch after being in third on the turn. Has posted 90-plus Beyer figures in each of its last three races and has the pedigree to compete at this distance. Better yet, it could offer a decent price.
8. Angel of Empire (7-2) – Hit the board at the Derby with a third-place finish just 1.5 lengths behind winner, Mage. That resulted in a 104 Beyer figure, which is the top in this field.
9. Red Route One (15-1) – Was a dark horse in the Preakness but ended up finishing fourth. Preakness runners don’t fare well in the Belmont.
2023 Belmont: The Bets
If you don’t want to bet exotics and prefer to stick to win bets, here’s how we could approach this race on a small budget and a larger budget:
$25 Budget
$15 win on 2
$10 win on 7
$100 Budget
$25 win, place, and show bets on 2
$12 win and place bet on 7
In terms of the exotics, we have a lot of angles at our disposal, but everything starts with the 2 and 7 horses as our keys. Here are some sample wagers based on my handicapping:
$5 exacta box: 2, 7 ($10 total bet) – Adding in the 3 would make this a $30 total bet
$5 exacta: 2-7 with 6-8 ($20)
$5 exacta: 2-7 with 1-3 ($20)
$2 exacta: 7 with all ($16)
$1 trifecta: 2-7 with 2-3-4-6-7-8 with ALL ($70 total bet) – a $0.50 trifecta would be $35
$1 trifecta: 2-7 with ALL with 2-3-4-6-7-8 ($70 total bet)
$3 trifecta: 7 with 2-3-6 with 2-3-6 ($18 total bet)
$0.10 superfecta: 2-7 with 2-3-6-7 with 9 with all ($3.60 total bet)
